Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Let's hope it doesn't do that during an X flare or something š Iām loving this Beta-gamma-delta though, I think it may be the longest-lasting one of the SC that I can remember! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Watch it go to beta š¤£ (I hope not lol) Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, Orneno said: Let's hope it doesn't do that during an X flare or something š Iām loving this Beta-gamma-delta though, I think it may be the longest-lasting one of the SC that I can remember! Thats what i worried, I did'nt wanna miss a flare since its so active! About the longest-lasting Beta-Gamma-Delta :Ā Definately. I think we only got like 3 Regions with that layout so far? And all of them died down within not even a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 It's like the calm before the storm... how weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 (edited) SO @Orneno, you talked about low hopes for the CME. May elaborate on that? I saw some youtubers forecasting G2-G3! Noaa didnt say anything about it really, on twitter i've seen people talk about it being a glancing blow rather than a full on hit. Anyways, my fingers are crossed. My hopes in seeing northern lights in germany are almost gone tho.. Winter is ending soon and its not dark enough anymore due to Lightpollution in my area and the days becoming longer again. Ā Edit : Attached picture of the CME Scoreboard Edited January 30, 2022 by MinYoongi Forgot to attach Picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei: It's like the calm before the storm... how weird Not weird, the delta spot is pretty tiny and less strong than yesterday before the M-class solar flare. Also the penumbral area also shrunk a bit making a bigger gap between the two polarities of the region. So its normal activity went down a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Not weird, the delta spot is pretty tiny and less strong than yesterday before the M-class solar flare. Also the penumbral area also shrunk a bit making a bigger gap between the two polarities of the region. So its normal activity went down a bit. True true, maybe my weather side of me is kicking in (I use to watch weather as much as I do with space weather now and when things would go quiet with weather, you would know things are about to go nuts) because it just seems weird for things to go quiet but yeah its probably my weather side of me kicking in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: I saw some youtubers forecasting G2-G3! And they are space weather experts? Donāt listen to YouTubers that arenāt experts in the field. NOAZ didnāt say anything indeed because they first wait till all data is there to make a prediction that is as accurate as possible. We also wait till there are predictions made by official organisations before making any assumptions. But YouTubers kick on their views and make a fuzz to make views (and money) looking at the predictions made by space weather official organisations we see a Kp possibility of 3 to 6, so max G2. Much will depend on the arrival time and conditions of the IMF at arrival, current lead time also varies between 49 and 71 hours. 3 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei: True true, maybe my weather side of me is kicking in (I use to watch weather as much as I do with space weather now and when things would go quiet with weather, you would know things are about to go nuts) because it just seems weird for things to go quiet but yeah its probably my weather side of me kicking in lol Space weather is a bit different than Earth weather and more unpredictable. Iāve seen big huge delta deltas that where capable of producing major X-class and didnāt do a thing and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: SO @Orneno, you talked about low hopes for the CME. May elaborate on that? I saw some youtubers forecasting G2-G3! Noaa didnt say anything about it really, on twitter i've seen people talk about it being a glancing blow rather than a full on hit. Anyways, my fingers are crossed. My hopes in seeing northern lights in germany are almost gone tho.. Winter is ending soon and its not dark enough anymore due to Lightpollution in my area and the days becoming longer again. Ā Edit : Attached picture of the CME Scoreboard G2/G3 would be cool. I have no idea how to gauge the strength of a CME when just guessing, it looked kinda slow but that may just be because it was pointed at the camera. I hope the optimistic predictions are correct! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Iāve seen big huge delta deltas that where capable of producing major X-class and didnāt do a thing and vice versa. Huh that is interesting. Ā 3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Space weather is a bit different than Earth weather Yeah lol. Sometimes I have to remind myself that every once in awhile š Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: SO @Orneno, you talked about low hopes for the CME. May elaborate on that? I saw some youtubers forecasting G2-G3! Noaa didnt say anything about it really, on twitter i've seen people talk about it being a glancing blow rather than a full on hit. Anyways, my fingers are crossed. My hopes in seeing northern lights in germany are almost gone tho.. Winter is ending soon and its not dark enough anymore due to Lightpollution in my area and the days becoming longer again. Ā Edit : Attached picture of the CME Scoreboard As to your diminishing hopes, stay optimistic! Activity is continually increasing, and if we got a bright storm you could see it, plus Iām guessing youāre not above the Arctic Circle and still get some nighttime hoursĀ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, Orneno said: As to your diminishing hopes, stay optimistic! Activity is continually increasing, and if we got a bright storm you could see it, plus Iām guessing youāre not above the Arctic Circle and still get some nighttime hoursĀ Thank you for the heads upĀ šš„° Will be visiting Family in Denmark again this year around autumn, lets hopeĀ š 25 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: And they are space weather experts? Donāt listen to YouTubers that arenāt experts in the field. NOAZ didnāt say anything indeed because they first wait till all data is there to make a prediction that is as accurate as possible. We also wait till there are predictions made by official organisations before making any assumptions. But YouTubers kick on their views and make a fuzz to make views (and money) 26 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Ā looking at the predictions made by space weather official organisations we see a Kp possibility of 3 to 6, so max G2. Much will depend on the arrival time and conditions of the IMF at arrival, current lead time also varies between 49 and 71 hours. Ā Ā Yeah, I know theyre not experts. Not talking about the usual Fearmongers (Ben Davidson, yuck) here. Just normal space weather related channels with high hopes Ā Thats why I edited to attach the predictionsĀ š„° Ā 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The maximum of SC25 is getting closer anyways. It's not like one region is all we'll get. It may be disappointing when one falls short, but regions come and go. There will be plenty more chances for CME's and geomagnetic storming, even throughout just 2022. This is something I tell myself whenever I'm disappointed by lackluster space weather.Ā 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Aww, so much for long lived beta-gamma-delta. Itās downgraded to just gamma. Seems that one M1 was all it could muster.Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space pro Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Not weird, the delta spot is pretty tiny and less strong than yesterday before the M-class solar flare. Also the penumbral area also shrunk a bit making a bigger gap between the two polarities of the region. So its normal activity went down a bit. Oh! I was thinking that today or tomorrow there was going to be a X flare as the activity was going down (bcoz same happened to AR2887 one day before X flare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Watch it go to beta š¤£ (I hope not lol) I predicted the future on accident.Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 uren geleden, Orneno zei: Aww, so much for long lived beta-gamma-delta. Itās downgraded to just gamma. Seems that one M1 was all it could muster.Ā Just Beta. There are no more magnetic delta structures (umbra in penumbra of opposite polarities) and the polarities are clearly separated (no mixing) so no gamma. You might be able to argue Beta-Gamma due to there being a bit of positive polarity penumbra among the trailing spots but its so minor I guess Beta is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Just Beta. There are no more magnetic delta structures (umbra in penumbra of opposite polarities) and the polarities are clearly separated (no mixing) so no gamma. You might be able to argue Beta-Gamma due to there being a bit of positive polarity penumbra among the trailing spots but its so minor I guess Beta is fair. So is the spot dead then? It could it red-develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: So is the spot dead then? It could it red-develop? I would not say dead, it can always develop new flux but based on what I see right now, the chance of further M-class activity seems very low. The three day solar flare (sorry its in Dutch) graph says the whole story. The background flux was increasing to the point it was in or very close to the C-range when it had the BGD magnetic layout but now that it lost the Delta you see how the background flux is trending down to the mid B-range.Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For the administrators...Ā Sunspot 2936 Ā January 21 January 21 (09:30) January 19 (19:00) - 21 (23:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres āĀ Mercury - Mars January 19 (19:15) - 29 (14:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto - Juno ā Earth January 19 (19:00) - 21 (23:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres āĀ Mercury - Mars January 21 (09:30) ā 22 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Juno across the Sun January 21 (21:45) ā 22 (14:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Pluto across the Sun Ā The Triple January 27 (05:00) ā February 1 (02:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto ā Mercury - Earth ENDS early February 1 Conclusion: Sunspot 2936 is already going down because the Triple has past it strongest alignment and will go down even more January 1! Possible new flux LATE January 4 February 4 (17:15) - 12 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Venus ā Mercury - Juno Ā February 1 December 2 (13:15) -Ā February 8 (21:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter ā Pallas ā Ceres January 7 (12:00) ā February 2 (13:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn - Juno āĀ Mars January 27 (05:00) ā February 1 (02:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto ā Mercury - Earth January 28 (09:15) ā February 17 (10:15), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Juno and the Sun January 28 (19:00) ā February 7 (18:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta ā Venus - Earth February 1 (20:30) ā 2 (19:15), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Neptune across the Sun Ā February 2 December 2 (13:15) -Ā February 8 (21:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter ā Pallas ā Ceres January 7 (12:00) ā February 2 (13:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn - Juno āĀ Mars January 28 (09:15) ā February 17 (10:15), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Juno and the Sun January 28 (19:00) ā February 7 (18:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta ā Venus - Earth February 1 (20:30) ā 2 (19:15), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Neptune across the Sun February 2 (18:30) ā 7 (20:00), 2021: Opposition Saturn - Earth across the Sun Ā February 3 December 2 (13:15) -Ā February 8 (21:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter ā Pallas ā Ceres January 28 (09:15) ā February 17 (10:15), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Juno and the Sun January 28 (19:00) ā February 7 (18:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta ā Venus - Earth February 2 (18:30) ā 7 (20:00), 2021: Opposition Saturn - Earth across the Sun February 4 December 2 (13:15) -Ā February 8 (21:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter ā Pallas ā Ceres January 28 (09:15) ā February 17 (10:15), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Juno and the Sun January 28 (19:00) ā February 7 (18:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta ā Venus - Earth February 2 (18:30) ā 7 (20:00), 2021: Opposition Saturn - Earth across the Sun February 4 (17:15) - 12 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Venus ā Mercury - Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 12:08 PM, MinYoongi said: Anyone has a guess why GOES wont update? right when i type this, data comes back in. FmlĀ š Ā On 1/30/2022 at 1:21 PM, MinYoongi said: Yeah, I remember like 2 years ago it had regular 2 hour long disruptions.Ā šŖ Well, you might feel silly now as I explain this, but it's because it passes behind the Earth and can't see the Sun. It goes around the Earth in geostationary orbit after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Ā Well, you might feel silly now as I explain this, but it's because it passes behind the Earth and can't see the Sun. It goes around the Earth in geostationary orbit after all. Oh itās geostationary? I thought it was L1ā¦ but yeah thatās not GOES, itās the other space weather craft like DSCOVR ACE SOHO STEREO (well STEREO is not at L1, itās on a heliocentric orbit a bit ahead of Earth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Oh itās geostationary? I thought it was L1ā¦ but yeah thatās not GOES, itās the other space weather craft like DSCOVR ACE SOHO STEREO (well STEREO is not at L1, itās on a heliocentric orbit a bit ahead of Earth GOES means "Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite" All the solar flare data on SWL is from the GOES satellites. The primary is GOES-16, but you are able to look at the data from GOES-17 when the primary is eclipsed, since the two satellites are in different positions around the Earth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 This region looks like it produced multiple (small) CMEs in the past few days as it's been approaching the west limb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now