Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 23 minuten geleden, Patrick Geryl zei: I also calculated 2786. So currently this theory delivers the two biggest spots of this cycle. Not convinced yet? Nope, if your theory is “correct”. Then you can apply it for earlier dates, for example calculate it against whole SC25 and see how well your theory delivered a match or not. If you can’t do that or are unable to reach a confidence level above 90%, it’s not a good theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 45 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said: I also calculated 2786. So currently this theory delivers the two biggest spots of this cycle. Not convinced yet? Patrick, On the other page (New AR over limb), which has now been locked, you posted a link to GONG Calibrated Gallery to support your claim that AR2936 was 'born' on 21st January. I can see that on 20th January GONG identified a farside spot with 71% probability of it reaching the earth facing side. However, that spot then disappears until another spot, at a higher latitude, appears on the earth facing side on 26th January. Am I misinterpreting the data, or is there actually no link between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The magnetic delta structure is getting stronger, x-ray flux is also on the rise. Chances for M-class solar flare is likely. 37 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: However, that spot then disappears That happens a lot with GONG, farside GONG isn’t very reliable for sunspot region detections as they often disappear (especially smaller regions). You can see this happening a lot if you play each map in a movie, see https://gong2.nso.edu/products/scaleView/view.php?configFile=configs/farside.cfg&productIndex=0 because it’s less reliable we don’t use these maps anymore on SWL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 M from 2936 going on right now !!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 (edited) Aren't solar flares supposed to have a sharp start? (i have no idea how to put a picture of the activity, sorry about no picture of the flare) What is going on □□□□□□□□□□■■■■□□■□□□□□□□□■■■□□□□■■□■□□□■■■■□□□□□□□□□□□■■■■■■■■■□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□□ (I tried my best to recreate the graph using text) Edited January 29, 2022 by No pseudoscience Fixing error from text box size inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 They can be spontaneous, and have a sharp uprise but they dont have to do that. This flare looks like a long duration event, but it only briefly reached M-Levels. I dont know if we should expect a CME from this? And if so, a strong one? 8 uren geleden, farm24 zei: M from 2936 going on right now !!!! Yep! But it was C for almost 2 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: They can be spontaneous, and have a sharp uprise but they dont have to do that. This flare looks like a long duration event, but it only briefly reached M-Levels. I dont know if we should expect a CME from this? And if so, a strong one? Could you please provide context of the graph for future reference? I have no idea how to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 I do believe there is an Earth-directed CME from this. I saw some slight coronal dimming and plasma spreading outward from the flare. 5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: The magnetic delta structure is getting stronger But it says it's just a beta...? And SWPC just updated their sunspot regions report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, LunarLights58 said: I do believe there is an Earth-directed CME from this. I saw some slight coronal dimming and plasma spreading outward from the flare. Stereo A just updated, it looks like a CME was indeed launched. Anways, i cant predict any impact since im not really experienced enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Using this tool should be all you need to associate the rise in flux that you've been seeing with what's actually going on; it's SDO images playable in a movie, like what's on offer on this website(it is the source actually): https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If this is what you mean by long solar flare, active sunspot regions can increase the base level of the X-Ray flux. So the base level would be around C-Class now, but the past day hasn't been one flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 (edited) I can hardly see it yet. All I see is the one from earlier which came from behind the eastern limb. There's like maybe two frames of it on LASCO and it already seems like a partial halo. Edited January 30, 2022 by LunarLights58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 36 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: I can hardly see it yet. All I see is the one from earlier which came from behind the eastern limb. There's like maybe two frames of it on LASCO and it already seems like a partial halo. Do you think it will be a glancing blow rather than a head on hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Do you think it will be a glancing blow rather than a head on hit? There's not enough data yet to be sure, but I'm hopeful it'll be a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Yep! But it was C for almost 2 Hours It’s still a 4-hour long duration M1 flare! 1 hour ago, LunarLights58 said: I can hardly see it yet. All I see is the one from earlier which came from behind the eastern limb. There's like maybe two frames of it on LASCO and it already seems like a partial halo. Too soon to tell if it’s glancing or direct, there’s simply too few frames of LASCO. gotta wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space pro Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Guys I feel X flare This time a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 uren geleden, LunarLights58 zei: But it says it's just a beta...? Again, the magnetic classification of SWPC is only updated daily. In 24 hours a sunspot region can quickly develop and thus the magnetic classification can change. That’s why it’s important to learn how to classify sunspot regions so you’ll recognise the structure of fast developing regions. SWPC has wrongfully classified it now as alpha 🤦🏼♂️ It’s now more a beta-delta region with only a minor delta spot left. The trailing part of the region separates itself. update: SWPC corrected the classification to BGD 3 uren geleden, Orneno zei: It’s still a 4-hour long duration M1 flare! Nice flare but the coronal dimming was underwhelming so I don’t expect much from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Its still Beta Gamma Delta but by the skin of its teeth. The resulting CME is slow but I am confident it should hit Earth due to the asymmetrical halo outline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 BETA GAMMA DELTA LETS GOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: BETA GAMMA DELTA LETS GOO You are going to be so exhausted when we get to solar maximum☺️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 3gMike said: You are going to be so exhausted when we get to solar maximum☺️ Lol, its my third beta-gamma-delta (I think) but I still get excited 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: Its still Beta Gamma Delta but by the skin of its teeth. The resulting CME is slow but I am confident it should hit Earth due to the asymmetrical halo outline. hit for sure, but it looks pretty weak, probably nothing more than G1 or G2 is my wild guess, seem about right to you? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Anyone has a guess why GOES wont update? right when i type this, data comes back in. Fml 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: Anyone has a guess why GOES wont update? right when i type this, data comes back in. Fml 😅 It just happens sometimes 🤷 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: It just happens sometimes 🤷 Yeah, I remember like 2 years ago it had regular 2 hour long disruptions. 😪 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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