My data on tracking solar flares

[Solarflaretracker200]

Hey everyone so since Nov 2nd I have been tracking solar flares.... but I chose I wanted to go to OCT- to currently. I know this sounds kinda stupid but let me explain. I originally wanted to start tracking in Nov but around Nov 23rd I went further back and started in Oct*. So here is the graph I made so far: 

*I am still working on this and a few days are not totally correct. 

 

I also count the solar flares that are not counted. Not tiny ones but bigger ones.

What I find interesting here is that most days the solar flares go down then up higher the next day. Does anyone have any idea why this happens? 

Edited January 23, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[Vancanneyt Sander]

42 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei:

What I find interesting here is that most days the solar flares go down then up higher the next day. Does anyone have any idea why this happens? 

It will always go up and down depending on the magnetic complexity of a sunspot region. It can’t be a constant 😉

44 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei:

I also count the solar flares that are not counted. Not tiny ones but bigger ones.

That’s pretty vague. I assume C and up? Why count extra and how did you determine those, did you cross check those with SDO imagery for confirmation?

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

It will always go up and down depending on the magnetic complexity of a sunspot region. It can’t be a constant 😉

Yeah I figured something like that was the cause. 

 

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

That’s pretty vague. I assume C and up? Why count extra and how did you determine those, did you cross check those with SDO imagery for confirmation?

No, but I am going to go through the data today and do that. What I have done to count the "extra" or "Not counted" is here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-flares.html and count the extra ones. 

 

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

I assume C and up?

Yes, C class and up. Or lets say it's A5.5 and does a big jump to B9.9 I would count that. But I won't count something like a B9.0 to B9.1. But yes mostly C and up. 

[FairyG]

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Yeah I figured something like that was the cause. 

 

No, but I am going to go through the data today and do that. What I have done to count the "extra" or "Not counted" is here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-flares.html and count the extra ones. 

 

Yes, C class and up. Or lets say it's A5.5 and does a big jump to B9.9 I would count that. But I won't count something like a B9.0 to B9.1. But yes mostly C and up. 

This is really wild. I like visuals. It will be awesome to see the patterns develop as you keep plotting data points. Anyone think February and March we will be seeing some crazy breaks in patterns and some wild space weather? 

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, FairyG said:

It will be awesome to see the patterns develop as you keep plotting data points.

Yeah it would, and as we get closer and closer to solar max (which is still a few years away) the plots will probably grow and there will be less big dips. If there are dips they may not go to complete zero.   

Like the second dip on the chart

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Browse around in our archive, monthly charts with number of solar flares for each month is available since 1996. So you can compare current data with a few months in solar max.

[Solarflaretracker200]

2000... A day in 2000 had 401 sunspots? WHAT THE HECK 

Dang SC23 was just a sunspot machine 

[Solarflaretracker200]

19 hours ago, FairyG said:

Anyone think February and March we will be seeing some crazy breaks in patterns and some wild space weather? 

Who knows we may see that or we may not lol. 🤷‍♂️

I think it all depends on the solar activity and sunspots. (Is that right @Vancanneyt Sanderor is that wrong?)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei:

I think it all depends on the solar activity and sunspots. (Is that right @Vancanneyt Sanderor is that wrong?)

In space weather we can't predict solar activity in the future (only an estimate of the smoothed sunspot number which of course isn't accurate). Just be patient, active periods will come some day 😉. It will all depend on the sunspot regions that we'll get then. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

After a few hours of cross checking and double checking my graph, I now have the 100% accurate graph:

 

It seems like my other one has some errors but I fixed it now 🙂

[FairyG]

20 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

In space weather we can't predict solar activity in the future (only an estimate of the smoothed sunspot number which of course isn't accurate). Just be patient, active periods will come some day 😉. It will all depend on the sunspot regions that we'll get then. 

This is kind of frightening. I thought if the sun has its rotation that every time certain part of it faced us would yield similar patterns in numbers and intensity of sunspots, but I can see why so many factors would make it hard to predict.

Someone will have to figure out a way to calculate a predictability model with some accuracy at some point.

I am still trying to understand what causes a sunspot to make a CME and what the factors need to be occuring with planetary alignment and magnetic pull to produce the x class kind, which are my favorite.  There must be some kind of formula existing, no?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

3 uren geleden, FairyG zei:

Someone will have to figure out a way to calculate a predictability model with some accuracy at some point.

At some point it will be predictable but to achieve that we need to know exactly how the interior of the Sun works and there’s still much not known.

3 uren geleden, FairyG zei:

I am still trying to understand what causes a sunspot to make a CME

Simple: a sunspot region consists of sunspots that each have a polarity (positive or negative). From each sunspot, a magnetic loop is connected to a spot of opposite polarity. Along the magnetic loop, material of the sun flows along it. When you have many sunspots close together with mixed polarities, these magnetic loops get tangled and can create a solar flare. During a solar flare, the magnetic loop breaks open and material that was along the magnetic loops gets thrown into space and initiate a coronal mass ejection. After the flare, the loops restore itself which is called magnetic reconnection.

3 uren geleden, FairyG zei:

what the factors need to be occuring with planetary alignment and magnetic pull to produce the x class kind

Planetary alignments don’t cause solar flares and don’t cause sunspot formation. It’s an unproven theory and as long as it’s not proven, it’s not a fact and can’t be applied. Also, a so called alignment of planets has zero gravitational effect as they are too far away to cause any gravitational effect.

3 uren geleden, FairyG zei:

to produce the x class kind

To produce an X-class solar flare you’ll need a magnetically complex sunspot region with at least a magnetic delta structure. 

[Isatsuki San]

4 hours ago, FairyG said:

Esto es un poco aterrador. Pensé que si el sol tiene su rotación, cada vez que cierta parte de él nos mira produciría patrones similares en el número y la intensidad de las manchas solares, pero puedo ver por qué tantos factores harían que fuera difícil de predecir.

Alguien tendrá que encontrar una manera de calcular un modelo de previsibilidad con cierta precisión en algún momento.

Todavía estoy tratando de entender qué causa que una mancha solar forme una CME y qué factores deben ocurrir con la alineación planetaria y la atracción magnética para producir el tipo de clase x, que son mis favoritos. Debe existir algún tipo de fórmula, ¿no?

I will try to explain as best as possible, the sun every 11 years its magnetic field desornces created small magnetic field making solar spots, composed of its plama surface and the CME is created due to the protons that releases the magnetic field of the Solar spot and some From this explosions of the Solar spot, it comes with Sopresas that would be the eleterons that releases the MYX class solar calls that ontrophones are due to their internal core that is like merger nuclea, and I must say, that there is no evidence that the alignments of the Planets has to do with class X solar flares

[Sam Warfel]

4 hours ago, FairyG said:

This is kind of frightening. I thought if the sun has its rotation that every time certain part of it faced us would yield similar patterns in numbers and intensity of sunspots, but I can see why so many factors would make it hard to predict.

Someone will have to figure out a way to calculate a predictability model with some accuracy at some point.

I am still trying to understand what causes a sunspot to make a CME and what the factors need to be occuring with planetary alignment and magnetic pull to produce the x class kind, which are my favorite.  There must be some kind of formula existing, no?

Sanders explained it perfectly just above this message. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

Maybe this is just a coincidence but I noticed in Oct 2021 the solar flares were rising, in Nov 2021 they were low, in Dec 2021 they were high, this month so far they are not low but not high. This seems to be interesting. (What I mean by rising is that there is more in that month and when I mean low I mean there are less in that month) 

[Kuhnate]

I appreciate Vancanneyt Sander post but ...

1.) There is no such thing as magnetic reconnection. New fields are being created but you can never put a broken magnet back together. 

2.) The sun is electric in nature more than a giant random burning nuclear furnace. It is a feedback loop. Hence our common stability from earth facing solar flares.... Our magnetic connection with the star apparently somehow stabilizes magnetic fields of sunspots.  That is not to say other planets/ moons/ comets/ other external forces don't contribute. 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Kuhnate
Cause I wanna

[Solarflaretracker200]

10 minutes ago, Kuhnate said:

There is no such thing as magnetic reconnection

Actually there is but I’m going to stay out of this..

[Jesterface23]

3 hours ago, Kuhnate said:

1.) There is no such thing as magnetic reconnection. New fields are being created but you can never put a broken magnet back together. 

Note the two different words. Think magnetic instead of magnet.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Wow! The solar flares have increased dramatically in just the past day or two on my graph! I know it is because this new AR, but wow. 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Op 27/1/2022 om 02:29, Kuhnate zei:

There is no such thing as magnetic reconnection.

There is 😉

https://mrx.pppl.gov/Physics/physics.html

[Solarflaretracker200]

look at this big jump in the solar flares per day!

This AR is insane!

[Vancanneyt Sander]

34 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei:

look at this big jump in the solar flares per day!

This AR is insane!

Last cycle (SC24) had a record of 10 M-class flares and 12 C-class flares on 1 day (even better then SC23 with 9 M-class flares on one day and 8 C-class. That’s more insane 😜

[Solarflaretracker200]

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Last cycle (SC24) had a record of 10 M-class flares and 12 C-class flares on 1 day

For some reason that doesn't surprise me 🤣

Was that just from one region or all the regions added up?

[Sam Warfel]

10 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Last cycle (SC24) had a record of 10 M-class flares and 12 C-class flares on 1 day (even better then SC23 with 9 M-class flares on one day and 8 C-class. That’s more insane 😜

What’s the maximum of X-flares you’ve had in one day?

[3gMike]

31 minutes ago, Orneno said:

What’s the maximum of X-flares you’ve had in one day?

A quick look shows that 2001 was most active in recent years with 21 X class over the year, then using the Archive it can be seen that 8 of those arose in April, with 3 occurring on 2nd April. An automated search of the database might show up other instances.