some questions as a starter in space weather

[FairyG]

4 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

in our archive we have data since around 1996 but first few years are not complete as satellites where rare and data wasn’t always public available. We decided not to put it in a database because it would make the databases so huge (millions of rows in a database) it could/would slow things down. So when we processed the data for our archive we stored it in a regular file format that we read out. So due to that querying is not possible. What we’ve done now is go through each file and derived data into a new database. Our next step is to make a page that will display the results (that won’t be today as I’ve been building the database for 8 hours already today 😜)

 I appreciate the amount of work you are doing as I can understand the labor you are putting into it!!!

I absolutely adore this site even though I still can't figure out how to read into a lot of the data. So all the commentary about what's going on really makes things understandable.

Does the sun actually appear brighter when it releases a solar flare or CME? Is there a delay of when it happens to when we can see it verses when the energy hits or passes earth? I kinda think I understand it but anyone who can shed some insight or a good YouTube video please let me know!

I love the YouTube video posted here too.

 

Ps. Am I just imagining seeing the night sky change colors from 1300ft elevation on a KP4 Aurora in upstate NY? I am about 25 miles from the nearest city and above it in the countryside at the top of a small mountain. Very dark countryside.

I am such a noob, thanks for your patience!

[Solarflaretracker200]

50 minutes ago, FairyG said:

Does the sun actually appear brighter when it releases a solar flare or CME?

I think both but I don't know. 

[Sam Warfel]

54 minutes ago, FairyG said:

Does the sun actually appear brighter when it releases a solar flare or CME? Is there a delay of when it happens to when we can see it verses when the energy hits or passes earth? I kinda think I understand it but anyone who can shed some insight or a good YouTube video please let me know!

That depends what wavelength you mean by “bright”. In X-ray or extreme ultraviolet, solar flares appear as bright flashes. 

In the visible light that you can see with your eyes, most flares are not visible. Sometimes very rare white flares do occur, but rare. 

The overall brightness of the sun hardly changes at all, even during big solar flares. 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur geleden, FairyG zei:

I still can't figure out how to read into a lot of the data.

It all starts on our help section which teaches you all the basics. Next step is follow space weather events and learn it along the way making use of what you learned in our help section.

1 uur geleden, FairyG zei:

Does the sun actually appear brighter when it releases a solar flare or CME?

No.

1 uur geleden, FairyG zei:

Is there a delay of when it happens to when we can see it verses when the energy hits or passes earth?

because the sun isn’t close, the earliest particles can arrive after 8 minutes (during a strong solar flare high energetic particles are accelerated to nearly speed of light and thus arrive after 8 minutes), CME it selves takes about 24h to 3 days depending on the characteristics.

1 uur geleden, FairyG zei:

I kinda think I understand it but anyone who can shed some insight

Start with our help section 😉

[FairyG]

Thank you. Yes it is a slow process to learn all of the information but proud that your answers are in line with my inferences! One more question, the particles that arrive up to 3 days later... could it be interpreted as a strong sun and make the earth a bit suddenly warmer?

I will be honest, we have had the most bizarre winter here in NY with some strange weird warm days and there seems to be a correlation with activity here at space weather live. I was trying to see if perhaps the warm day at Christmas and today's extremely bright sun (and delay of a predicted snow storm) possibly could be related to the activity on the sun. Since you said it could take a few days to reach us, in my noob mind it seems like a good correlation.

And Halloween was unusually warm (we usually get our first snow then) and the colors of the sky were extra vivid and since it was a kp7 that is when i first started looking for traces of northern lights this far south. I am understanding the aurora readings part but the knowledge for understanding the sun is going to probably take e a while to absorb. I appreciate the help to go to the help section all of the underlined word definitions are super cool. I am doing my best! Cheers!

From all I have read it doesn't seem like there is any easy way to "predict" sun activity, especially x-flares, yet reading your comments it seems like some people know how to interpret the data and make educated predictions. I hope to get to that point of understanding some day.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

7 minuten geleden, FairyG zei:

the particles that arrive up to 3 days later... could it be interpreted as a strong sun and make the earth a bit suddenly warmer?

No, those particles don’t make the Earth warmer 😉 global warming does but that’s not space weather related (except a mini ice age when the solar cycle went into a long minimum called the dalton minimum). It’s believed that cosmic rays in solar minimum are higher and potentially lead to more cloud cover and a drop in temperature than in a solar maximum.

10 minuten geleden, FairyG zei:

I will be honest, we have had the most bizarre winter here in NY with some strange weird warm days and there seems to be a correlation with activity here at space weather live.

No, this has a lot more to do with global warming than space weather. For my country it means more rain in winter and hotter summers with more weather extremes due to global warming. But it’s not related to space weather.

12 minuten geleden, FairyG zei:

From all I have read it doesn't seem like there is any easy way to "predict" sun activity

If it was that easy, we’d all be experts 😜. It’s also not easy because there is still a lot unknown about our Sun and new discoveries are still being made that improve our knowledge and forecasts. 

14 minuten geleden, FairyG zei:

hope to get to that point of understanding some day.

It will require a lot of storms and a lot of patience and you’ll get there eventually 😉

[Marcel de Bont]

Op 23/1/2022 om 18:25, FairyG zei:

Thank you. Yes it is a slow process to learn all of the information but proud that your answers are in line with my inferences! One more question, the particles that arrive up to 3 days later... could it be interpreted as a strong sun and make the earth a bit suddenly warmer?

Just to expand on this, during enhanced geomagnetic activity. The thermosphere does heat ever so slightly temporary and this causes extra drag on satellites in low-earth orbit. This is what caused the loss of 40 satellites launched by SpaceX recently. But it does not affect the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere.

[Cat Perkinton]

42 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Just to expand on this, during enhanced geomagnetic activity. The thermosphere does heat ever so slightly temporary and this causes extra drag on satellites in low-earth orbit. This is what caused the loss of 40 satellites launched by SpaceX recently. But it does not affect the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere.

Thanks for clarifying this, I have wondered if there is any link with localised weather, as I have noted several G1 storm occasions coinciding with big snow in Scotland (14/03/2018, 27/03/2018, 31/01/19 - all G1 & heavy snows here) ...so just coincidence then. 

[FairyG]

I know you said it's global warming but after the mflare the sun was really really bright Saturday and that day was really really warm and then it dropped back to 18 degrees. Seems like when there is a major sun event within a day or so the weird warmth happens. Also found a cool YouTube video on YouTube that a guy measured the UV yesterday and today and it was more than double what it should be for the winter. It may not be proven, but I seem to be able to notice a definate correlation here in upstate NY. It's like cold cold cold solarflare 50 degrees cold cold cold solar activity warm day,ect.

 this guy on YouTube is measuring crazy UV readings https://youtube.com/shorts/L_Hh_0zfZ9c?feature=share

[Sam Warfel]

9 minutes ago, FairyG said:

I know you said it's global warming but after the mflare the sun was really really bright Saturday and that day was really really warm and then it dropped back to 18 degrees. Seems like when there is a major sun event within a day or so the weird warmth happens. Also found a cool YouTube video on YouTube that a guy measured the UV yesterday and today and it was more than double what it should be for the winter. It may not be proven, but I seem to be able to notice a definate correlation here in upstate NY. It's like cold cold cold solarflare 50 degrees cold cold cold solar activity warm day,ect.

 this guy on YouTube is measuring crazy UV readings https://youtube.com/shorts/L_Hh_0zfZ9c?feature=share

The energy emitted by a flare is minuscule compared to the Sun’s overall output, it doesn’t significantly vary the amount of energy reaching Earth. Also, 99% of Solar flares do not emit in the visible light range, idk what you mean by saying the sun was “bright”. 

Also, it’s gotten way colder here during the Sun’s recent activity. Weather forecasters are really good and have some of the world’s most powerful supercomputers. If solar flares affected temperature, they’d know about it. There is no temperature/flare correlation

[FairyG]

Well I believe you that nobody can find a correlation. Seeing as how the energy is moving and there are so many factors it could definately be random coincidence. After reading this I feel very discouraged to understanding cause and effect of CME to Earth in simple terms, but it's so fascinating I have to keep studying. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008RS004029

 

 

Is there a real time graphic imaging of how the energy particles are hitting the earth post solar eruption?

Edited February 14, 2022 by FairyG

[SAINT]

I think you can only find a correlation if its approved. There are other effect of solar flares. However, the common consensus does not agree.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67860-3

[Solarflaretracker200]

10 hours ago, FairyG said:

Is there a real time graphic imaging of how the energy particles are hitting the earth post solar eruption?

I don't think so but hey, who knows 🤷‍♀️

[Jesterface23]

13 hours ago, FairyG said:

that day was really really warm and then it dropped back to 18 degrees.

It looks like the temperature began to rise as normal in the morning until the low pressure passed and cold front pushed through.

[FairyG]

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I don't think so but hey, who knows 🤷‍♀️

It would be cool to be able to measure and visually see the impact of the sun's blows, maybe as it gets to be a bigger problem more scientists and equipment will be drawn to the cause. Can't shake the feeling things are going to get "really exciting" this year.

This may "heat" things up hopefully they share their data.... http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/21/c_139686590.htm

[FairyG]

Also today is as sunny as Saturday and today's sun is not blinding me like Saturdays sun. It's also 7 degrees today. When I say spike in the temperature it was quite dramatic and during sunlight hours. The sun was so bright Saturday it made me check SWL and put sunglasses on my dog because it was terrifyingly bright esp off the snow. But today not so much. Observational data is always biased though.

54 minutes ago, FairyG said:

This may "heat" things up hopefully they share their data.... http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/21/c_139686590.htm

 

Also today is as sunny as Saturday and today's sun is not blinding me like Saturdays sun. It's also 7 degrees today. When I say spike in the temperature it was quite dramatic and during sunlight hours. The sun was so bright Saturday it made me check SWL and put sunglasses on my dog because it was terrifyingly bright esp off the snow. But today not so much. Observational data is always biased though.

So I looked up some hard data can anyone help me interpret it?

This is what is going on today.

Edited February 14, 2022 by FairyG

[FairyG]

See the temp now is 14 degrees and declining back into what temps are usually this time of year and how they were before the flare. also the time is in EST

[LunarLights58]

We just got an M class flare! 

Oops, wrong thread...

Edited February 14, 2022 by LunarLights58

[FairyG]

And just went back to Nov 1 2021 to see how post x flare data compared and it wasn't as dramatic as Saturday. The high UV and solar radiation from Saturday seems really bizarre now.

 

And I went back to see and sure enough our avg uv and solar radiation is nothing like Saturday.

 

1 hour ago, LunarLights58 said:

We just got an M class flare! 

Oops, wrong thread...

That is really bizarre because of what I am researching right now maybe this will help.

Edited February 14, 2022 by FairyG

[LunarLights58]

Solar flares release lots of high energy and frequency UV and X-ray radiation (and radio waves too), right? You'd expect higher UV levels because of them. But actually, flares lead to less overall UV reaching the Earth's surface. It's because the UV from flares hits stratospheric oxygen molecules, breaks them apart, then generates more ozone, which blocks UV. This means skin cancer would go down during solar maximum, as counterintuitive as it seems.

 

[SAINT]

Look out for Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. You will have to search.

[SAINT]

Ok. Could a flare also deplete ozone levels?

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, SAINT said:

Could a flare also deplete ozone levels?

I don't think so 

[SAINT]

Maybe we don't have as much ozone as we would like. Or need.

[FairyG]

48 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

Solar flares release lots of high energy and frequency UV and X-ray radiation (and radio waves too), right? You'd expect higher UV levels because of them. But actually, flares lead to less overall UV reaching the Earth's surface. It's because the UV from flares hits stratospheric oxygen molecules, breaks them apart, then generates more ozone, which blocks UV. This means skin cancer would go down during solar maximum, as counterintuitive as it seems.

 

Happened to be researching Saturdays data when the m flare happened today. Weather prediction was for a steady decrease in temperature. In the morning I didn't feel like the sun was as bright as Saturday. Now after that last flare the sun seems soooooooo bright again. So I checked. Look at that spike in UV!!!

Just after the M flare hit today

The sun seems brighter for sure. Look at that spike. But that's normal right?