Sam Warfel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Flareguy18 said: Type IV sweep as well. I was about to say that 😂 Anyways, a CME is very likely, I wonder how strong it will be. Too bad it won't be Earth-directed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: I wonder how strong it will be A type II CME? 🤷♀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: I was about to say that 😂 Anyways, a CME is very likely, I wonder how strong it will be. Too bad it won't be Earth-directed Sometimes even limb events can give us a glancing blow, so might at least hope for that 😁😂but yeah it probably wont be enough for a significant effect anyways. Whyyy must it always be limb flares 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: Whyyy must it always be limb flares 😂 Who knows 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The event looks eruptive (basically confirmed by the Type II and IV radio sweeps) but not really so violent that you'd expect a wide CME from it if you look at difference images from SDO AIA 193A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Whyyy must it always be limb flares 😂 We seem to be plagued by limb CMEs this solar cycle so far. It’s probably just coincidence or confirmation bias, but I’m sure it will ease as the SC strengthens and flings off CMEs in all directions! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 People said the same about SC24, only limb flares or far side... and I sort of understand that... because the limbs and far side make up most of the Sun! I would consider 30 degrees on either side of the prime meridian to be really head on earth-directed... That makes 60 degrees from east to west in the earth-strike zone... and 300 degrees not in the earth-strike zone. So much more chance something takes place outside of this perfect strike-zone... I really do hope I make sense haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: We seem to be plagued by limb CMEs this solar cycle so far. It’s probably just coincidence or confirmation bias, but I’m sure it will ease as the SC strengthens and flings off CMEs in all directions! The sun is and will always be a bully 😉… as long as the big CME’s occur near Center disk then I’ll be happy 😇 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: People said the same about SC24, only limb flares or far side... and I sort of understand that... because the limbs and far side make up most of the Sun! I would consider 30 degrees on either side of the prime meridian to be really head on earth-directed... That makes 60 degrees from east to west in the earth-strike zone... and 300 degrees not in the earth-strike zone. So much more chance something takes place outside of this perfect strike-zone... I really do hope I make sense haha. I guess the statistics make sense. Just gotta wait for more CMEs in general! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There she is... latest images from STEREO A. Still way too early to draw any solid conclusions of course but looks pretty decent on STEREO at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: There she is... latest images from STEREO A. Still way too early to draw any solid conclusions of course but looks pretty decent on STEREO at least. Looks to be definitely not Earth-directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Cant draw any conclusions from STEREO A is my experience. Have to wait for LASCO, but the CME doesn't look wide enough for an earth-directed component is my first impression. Again, waiting for LASCO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Don't forget about the Parker Spiral effect which could cause the CME in-transit to deflect off the (presumed) slower solar wind ahead of it, causing the CME to swerve to be more Earth-directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 32 minuten geleden, Drax Spacex zei: Don't forget about the Parker Spiral effect which could cause the CME in-transit to deflect off the (presumed) slower solar wind ahead of it, causing the CME to swerve to be more Earth-directed. Indeed true 😉 but let’s await LASCO imagery first to see if it is any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I doubt it, but would that M- class be considered "Long duration" or "Normal duration"? I think normal duration 🤷♀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 16 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei: I doubt it, but would that M- class be considered "Long duration" or "Normal duration"? I think normal duration 🤷♀️ 2-hours is a somewhat long duration event. But the more the better of course 😉 (not only duration, but also in strength) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: 2-hours is a somewhat long duration event. But the more the better of course 😉 (not only duration, but also in strength) Thanks, I’ve sometimes wondered just how long is considered long-duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: People said the same about SC24, only limb flares or far side... and I sort of understand that... because the limbs and far side make up most of the Sun! I would consider 30 degrees on either side of the prime meridian to be really head on earth-directed... That makes 60 degrees from east to west in the earth-strike zone... and 300 degrees not in the earth-strike zone. So much more chance something takes place outside of this perfect strike-zone... I really do hope I make sense haha. That's quite insightful! Never thought of it that way. 3 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: There she is... latest images from STEREO A. Still way too early to draw any solid conclusions of course but looks pretty decent on STEREO at least. I want that 🥺 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Flareguy18 said: I want that 🥺 Sadly we won’t get it. We have LASCO now, it looks nice but is not Earth-directed, not even a hint of any partial halo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Have to agree, this is not earth-directed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 (edited) On 1/16/2022 at 7:47 PM, Drax Spacex said: ... but 2929 may have released a rather weak Earth-directed CME at about 2022-01-16 20:00 UT. Was this CME the likely culprit of the unexpected G2 storm today at 2022-19-Jan 00h-03h UT? Successive Kp index values jumped from Kp3 to Kp6. I don't think is characteristic of a CH HSS. If not from the CME on 2022-01-16 20:00 UT, what else could it be? "We don't know" is an acceptable answer. Edited January 19, 2022 by Drax Spacex We don't know what we don't know, but we can guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Very hard to say, there have been numerous faint CMEs the past few days and one of them looks to have grazed us. Agree this likely was a CME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: Have to agree, this is not earth-directed Apparently NOAA forecasters think it has an Earth-directed component and we may receive a glancing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Partial halo... just over 90 degrees... cant ever rule anything out a 100% of course but I just dont see an earth-directed component... the region was already pretty far towards the west limb and it just didn't seem like a very wide blast... we will see but I am not getting my hopes up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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