I think soon 2929 might develop delta spots

[farm24]

I’m looking at the sunspots because I’m still disappointed that 2932 decayed but it looks like a sunspot in region 2929 is moving into the penumbrae of an oppositely charged spot it also might not move closer to it but to me it looks like it is close and maybe getting closer

[Sam Warfel]

37 minutes ago, farm24 said:

I’m looking at the sunspots because I’m still disappointed that 2932 decayed but it looks like a sunspot in region 2929 is moving into the penumbrae of an oppositely charged spot it also might not move closer to it but to me it looks like it is close and maybe getting closer

Still looks like a pretty simple spot to me (magnetically speaking)

[farm24]

19 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Still looks like a pretty simple spot to me (magnetically speaking)

The fields are getting kinda jumbled up now though but idk

[Drax Spacex]

Not sure about delta spots, but 2929 may have released a rather weak Earth-directed CME at about 2022-01-16 20:00 UT.

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Not sure about delta spots, but 2929 may have released a rather weak Earth-directed CME at about 2022-01-16 20:00 UT.

I'm not seeing anything discernible, where are you?

[Drax Spacex]

SDO AIA 193 and Stereo A COR 2.

AR2929 is now classified as beta delta.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/12929.html

[farm24]

6 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

SDO AIA 193 and Stereo A COR 2.

AR2929 is now classified as beta delta.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/12929.html

Called it

Not anymore though it got demoted

[3gMike]

12 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Not sure about delta spots, but 2929 may have released a rather weak Earth-directed CME at about 2022-01-16 20:00 UT.

I cannot find any evidence for it going delta, but it did release four C2.5  flares between 19:14 and 21:32, with the CME (No. 24) in that region being recorded as 1 hour duration from 20:24. That said, the AR is in close proximity to a Coronal Hole, so perhaps the CME arose from that?

[Solarflaretracker200]

So no delta but it’s active? 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I cannot find any evidence for it going delta, but it did release four C2.5  flares between 19:14 and 21:32, with the CME (No. 24) in that region being recorded as 1 hour duration from 20:24. That said, the AR is in close proximity to a Coronal Hole, so perhaps the CME arose from that?

I don’t think Coronal Holes can launch CMEs

[Vancanneyt Sander]

5 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

I don’t think Coronal Holes can launch CMEs

True indeed 😉

2 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

I cannot find any evidence for it going delta

there was a tiny spot of opposite polarity in the penumbral area north of the leading spot. But the penumbral area starts to crumble so the demotion of beta-delta to beta seems right.

[Solarflaretracker200]

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

But the penumbral area starts to crumble so the demotion of beta-delta to beta seems right.

Just not enough polarity for a beta delta? (I don’t really know what had been going on. Been offline for about a day for two)

Edited January 17, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[Vancanneyt Sander]

12 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei:

Just not enough polarity for a beta delta? (I don’t really know what had been going on. Been offline for about a day for two)

No, the penumbral area where the delta spot was started to separate itself from the leading spot. This was also noticed by SWPC in their latest report.
also if you where offline, check the latest activity and the reports first so that you’re up to date again  

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

also if you where offline, check the latest activity and the reports first so that you’re up to date again  

Ah thanks! I will make sure to do that! 

[3gMike]

48 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I don’t think Coronal Holes can launch CMEs

Oh - thanks, I had misunderstood that.

[Drax Spacex]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

... it did release four C2.5  flares between 19:14 and 21:32, with the CME (No. 24) in that region being recorded as 1 hour duration from 20:24. 

SWPC noted this event, but based on their initial modeling, it is not Earth-directed. 

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Solar Activity .24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2929 (N07W37, Dko/beta-delta) was the most complex spot on the visible disk and produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration C2 at 16/2021 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed with the event and a possibly linked CME off the NW limb in C2 imagery beginning at 16/2048 UTC. Initial modeling of the event showed no Earth-directed component.

There were a number of regions that "puffed" in SDO AIA 193 around that time.  Based on the time and elevation launch angle from the Stereo A images linked below, I presumed this to be CME from 2929, but apparently it was not.  Nothing seen in LASCO to corroborate an Earth-directed CME.

https://ibb.co/B4v8KHr

Edited January 17, 2022 by Drax Spacex
initial modeling

[Sam Warfel]

27 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Oh - thanks, I had misunderstood that.

Yeah, CMEs come from either flares, which are only found around sunspots (active regions) or filament eruptions, when a large piece of plasma is blown off the sun’s surface. (This latter reason is more rare.) I’m not entirely sure what exactly triggers these filament eruptions, but I don’t think it’s Coronal holes.

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Orneno said:

Yeah, CMEs come from either flares, which are only found around sunspots (active regions) or filament eruptions, when a large piece of plasma is blown off the sun’s surface. (This latter reason is more rare.) I’m not entirely sure what exactly triggers these filament eruptions, but I don’t think it’s Coronal holes.

Congratulations on your promotion to moderator!

I've only recently taken an interest in CMEs, so I have lots yet to learn. I found this NASA article which suggests that CMEs can also occur in the absence of flares or filament eruptions https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml. I wonder what sources that might be ?

In my original response I had made an assumption that there could be a reaction between the magnetic field streaming out of the coronal hole and that associated with the surface near the periphery of the coronal hole, but I now understand that the field from coronal holes is all believed to be emitted into space with no loops returning to the surface.

[Sam Warfel]

10 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Congratulations on your promotion to moderator!

I've only recently taken an interest in CMEs, so I have lots yet to learn. I found this NASA article which suggests that CMEs can also occur in the absence of flares or filament eruptions https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml. I wonder what sources that might be ?

In my original response I had made an assumption that there could be a reaction between the magnetic field streaming out of the coronal hole and that associated with the surface near the periphery of the coronal hole, but I now understand that the field from coronal holes is all believed to be emitted into space with no loops returning to the surface.

Thanks for the congrats. 

I’m definitely still learning about CMEs too. I am pretty sure CH are caused by “open field lines” I.e. the magnetic field lines loop waaaay out into space, not near the sun’s surface. This makes sense when you think about the way a magnetic field looks. You know how Earth’s field, or that of a bar magnet looks, with loops around it that go into the poles? Well, the sun is similar, even if it’s a lot messier at the surface or inside, especially around ARs and during Solar Max. But think about how those loops like on the Earth would look to an outside observer. If you were looking at one of the poles where the lines go in, you’d be looking more or less down them, not across like when looking at the equator. This is what is meant by “open field lines”, and notice this! The sun has almost permanent large Coronal Holes at the polar regions, where we know there are lots of “open field lines” (lines going into or out of the sun and way out into space). This shows a clear correlation between open field lines and Coronal Holes, which helps indicate that when a CH is formed elsewhere, it’s with/caused by open field lines. 

[Drax Spacex]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

 I found this NASA article which suggests that CMEs can also occur in the absence of flares or filament eruptions https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml. I wonder what sources that might be ?

Disappearing solar filament (DSF) is one possibility that comes to mind.  It is sort of an inverse filament eruption as I understand it.  Instead of an outward eruption, the filament falls back toward the Sun.  A DSF can produce a CME.  A simple analogy might be one who belly flops into the deep end of a swimming pool, and a huge outward splash results.

[Sam Warfel]

Idk about delta spots, but it just gave us an M1.5 flare!

[Solarflaretracker200]

Finally I didn’t miss it!

[Marcel de Bont]

2929 doesn't look all that impressive but nice to see an M-class solar flare anyway. Shame the region is already close to the limb. Type II sweep also. Think it will launch a CME but doubt it will be directed towards Earth.

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Shame the region is already close to the limb.

Yeah that is shame 

[Flareguy18]

5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

2929 doesn't look all that impressive but nice to see an M-class solar flare anyway. Shame the region is already close to the limb. Type II sweep also. Think it will launch a CME but doubt it will be directed towards Earth.

Type IV sweep as well.