Jump to content

Active Region 2017 - (X1.0)

Marcel de Bont

Recommended Posts

I didn't know that IMF direction can be predicted. How do you know that?

It is very difficult to predict and there is no guarantee that this method is solid proof. Our expert has a quick calculation method that you'll find in >this topic.

So for this one, we will be in a positive (away) sector and the CME will pass northwards so the IMF would be northward with a positive theta angle.

Upon arrival the direction of the IMF will balance in both ways before settling down to more longer period of sustained north/southward direction. But as with multiple impacts it can be quite tricky and may surprise us. We always wait upon the arrival before really saying how the chances are. For now we predict only very minor activity and upon arrival we see all parameters and give an update on the situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just look at the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model on SWPC's website:




It is indeed definitely not 100% reliable but it usually gives an OK tendency.


As Sander says, when a CME arrives, the IMF will move quite a lot but usually it settles in the predicted direction.


I agree that the only way to know is to just wait :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.