Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis M2.0 solar flare Solar activity increased to moderate levels as sunspot region 2017 just produced an M2.0 solar flare. The flare peaked at 19:18 UTC. This group is currently in a good position for earth-directed eruptions but considering that the flare was rather impulsive, it might not have produced a CME. Nonetheless, more updates will follow if this event did produced a Coronal Mass Ejection. A Type II Radio Emission was observed from this event which could indicate the launch of a CME, but it is not a guarantee. ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2014 Mar 28 1918 UTC Estimated Velocity: 528 km/s http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-62796600-1396036652.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-50003400-1396036712.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-79326300-1396036712.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Thanks : Une CME semble sortir ( attente sat SOHO / Lasco ) mais SDO montre un panache de plasma ( mais orientée au Nord ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis M2.6 solar flare - 00:10 UTC Another M-class solar flare! This time an M2.6 solar flare at 23:51 UTC from again sunspot region 2017. This group is currently in a good position for earth-directed eruptions. Another report will follow if it produced an Earth-directed CME. The M2.0 solar flare from today at 19:18 UTC did seem to have launched a CME but at a first glance it seems to have a mostly northward trajectory. We are awaiting LASCO imagery for a full analysis of the M2.0 event and of course from this M2.6 event. Stephane made a great analysis. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-56517400-1396051751.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-11257100-1396051853.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-48338400-1396051853.png EDIT 2:00 UTC: LASCO imagery is still incomplete and that makes it impossible to tell if the CMEs are Earth-directed. The M2.6 solar flare was just like the M2.0 solar flare eruptive and both of the flares launched a CME. However, as you can see on the animations below, most of the ejecta looks to be heading northwards. Nonetheless, EPAM did show a response which can indicate that there is an earth-directed component. A new update will follow when we have enough LASCO imagery available for a solid analyses. M2.0 M2.6 EPAM Auroral activity the direction of the IMF has been southward for a while. Kp-indices of 3 are being reported right now but this could rise to Kp4. Sky watchers at high latitudes should be alert for aurora. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/kp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report M-class solar flares - CME analyses Yesterday's M-class solar flares both produced a CME. Imagery from SDO already suggested that the bulk of the CMEs would be heading north, something which can indeed be confirmed by the images from LASCO. The images are difficult to interpret because of a farside halo CME that erupted only hours before the first M-class flare but nonetheless, a forecast can be made with reasonable accuracy. The first M-class flare (M2.0) launched a CME at a speed of about 400 km/s. This is very slow but the CME does show up as a partial halo of about 180 degrees. EPAM electrons responded to this flare indicating the CME could have a weak Earth-directed component. The second (M2.6) solar flare launched a CME at a slightly faster (550km/s) speed but only seems to be a partial halo of about 90 degrees. The lack of EPAM response following this flare and the limited halo of the CME as seen on LASCO suggests this CME is heading entirely north of the ecliptic and away from Earth. As said, the earth-directed component from the M2.0 solar flare looks weak and slow, so unfortunately we do not expect any kind of effects of it here at Earth. The CME will likely blend in with the background solar wind and have only minor to no effect on Earth. The first CME might arrive on April 2, 2014 but it should not, or hardly be noticeable in the ACE data. The animations below show the CMEs as seen by SOHO/LASCO. Note the farside halo which makes it hard to analyse the M-class events. SOHO/LASCO C2 + SOHO/LASCO C3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Bonjour : très classe ces animations et bien fluide. Hello: classy these animations and well fluid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Class X possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X1 solar flare Sunspot region 2017 just produced a major X1.0 solar flare. It peaked at 17:48 UTC. This is the first X-class solar flare since 25/02/2014. Region 2017 is currently in a reasonably good position for earth-directed eruptions. More information will follow if the flare launched a CME which is likely. A major eruption can be seen on the latest difference SDO/AIA imagery. It looks like most of the ejecta will again go mainly northward. See the animation below. We could see a minor increase in the high energy protons, possibly up to the S1 level. ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2014 Mar 29 1753 UTC Estimated Velocity: 4508 km/s Comment: Associated with X1/2b event from Region 2017. Also associated with Castelli U radio Burst with 110,000 sfu burst on 245 MHz. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-02323500-1396116907.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-51471500-1396116912.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-80001900-1396118190.png We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jose Ignacio Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Bonjour. Vous dites que la vitesse estimée de 4500 km / s, avec cette vitesse la CME atteindre la Terre en moins de 8 heures non? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Bonjour. Vous dites que la vitesse estimée de 4500 km / s, avec cette vitesse la CME atteindre la Terre en moins de 8 heures non? Saviez-vous quel est le pourcentage de la CME pour atteindre la Terre?Hello Jose, the speed of the sweep does not indicate the launch speed of a CME. It is the estimated speed of the coronal wave (which you can see in the animation that we provided.) We need coronagraph imagery to determine the speed of the CME. Nontheless, 4500km/s is very fast even for a coronal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Hello Jose, the speed of the sweep does not indicate the launch speed of a CME. It is the estimated speed of the coronal wave (which you can see in the animation that we provided.) We need coronagraph imagery to determine the speed of the CME. Nontheless, 4500km/s is very fast even for a coronal wave. I don't think I have seen one that fast before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Cela reste très élevée et depuis 2 ans que je suis l' activité solaire, je pense que ca n' et pas encore arrivée. Marcel De Bont : quel et la vitesse d' onde de choc ( Tsunami flare Hyder ) que vous ayez recensé ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jose Ignacio Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Vous savez déjà que le pourcentage de la CME qui peuvent atteindre la Terre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 I don't think I have seen one that fast before.Yeah, seriously fast. I also can not recall ever seeing such a high speed. Cela reste très élevée et depuis 2 ans que je suis l' activité solaire, je pense que ca n' et pas encore arrivée.Marcel De Bont : quel et la vitesse d' onde de choc ( Tsunami flare Hyder ) que vous ayez recensé ?My French is not good so I might not fully understand you but the proper name for this is a Large-Scale Coronal Propagating Front. A hyder flare is something else. This is basically a shockwave trough the Sun's corona following a solar flare. It can give us an indication of where most of the ejecta will be heading. Vous savez déjà que le pourcentage de la CME qui peuvent atteindre la Terre?I can not give you a percentage but most of the ejecta is for sure heading north. We do not know if it has an earth-directed part until LASCO imagery becomes available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike Needs Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 est time for LASCO imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 est time for LASCO imagery? Welcome Mike. We should be getting imagery soon. According to the schedule, SOHO will have a down link to the deep space network between:13 088 Sat 2014/03/29 21:25 - 00:00 - http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/operations/schedule/schedule.html It however often takes a while before all the imagery is available (the famous data gaps...) Here some CME imagery from STEREO. Most of the ejecta is clearly heading northwards: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-56845600-1396130162.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-55567800-1396130163.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike Needs Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 alas, not a earth bound one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 alas, not a earth bound one ? We do not know yet, there might be a weak earth-directed component (need LASCO to confirm this) but it is clear by looking at STEREO that the bulk is heading north. LASCO holds the answer to your question and that is what we are waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike Needs Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 ah Great! sorry, new to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jose Ignacio Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Il est étrange qu'ils ne durent que 33 jours entre deux régions actives BETA-DELTA, et qui ont eu lieu dans les deux éruptions de classe X, Je dis étrange parce que ces événements ont beaucoup à apparaître dans maximum solaire normale (+ , - 2 ans au maximum du cycle 24) Connaissez-vous déjà la vitesse qui apporte la CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X1 CME analysis SOHO/LASCO imagery is now coming in and there are some frames available showing the CME from the X1 solar flare. Good news: the CME has an earth-directed component. It is perhaps a slightly weaker part as the bulk of the CME is heading well north but a asymmetrical full halo CME is clearly visible. The CME has absolutely an earth-directed component. More imagery is needed for a more detailed analysis (arrival time, expected storm strength etc.) but an impact can be expected at Earth from this CME. We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. ah Great! sorry, new to this! No need to be sorry. We were all new once. Space weather is difficult and we try to help everyone as good as we can. Connaissez-vous déjà la vitesse qui apporte la CME? We do not know the CME speed yet. The jplots (STEREO) are not updated and LASCO is still lacking a lot of imagery. That means we can not calculate it's speed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 A minor update to the X1 CME of yesterday. Now that LASCO data is complete we can now safely say that the CME has a slow speed of about 500km/sec, LASCO images indicate a clear asymmetrical full halo CME with the bulk headed to the northwest of the ecliptic and only a minor part is Earth directed but was still good to see in the normal view. An impact is to be expected late on April 1. The EPAM monitor on the website will tell is when it's nearby. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) will be possible with a slight chance for G1 geomagnetic storming. On our YouTube channel we have a video of the X1 event. SOHO LASCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike Needs Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 excellent reports as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis M2.1 solar flare Another strong solar flare occurred near region 2017. It was an M1 event according to NOAA's latest rapport. SDO/EVE suggests an approximate peak of M1.2 There was a data drop out from GOES so no X-ray value shows up on our plots. The solar flare was associated with an eruption again heading mainly towards the north. This video shows the eruption that seem to have peaked around 11:55 UTC. More information will follow should there be an earth-directed CME. UPDATE: 16:50 UTC - More information is available regarding the strength of the flare: the flare peaked at M2.1. ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2014 Mar 30 1152 UTC Estimated Velocity: 879 km/s fc9a364c27410ea64ae3b791801e7cd8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Just a quick update on the M2.1 solar flare of this morning. The flare produced a Coronal Mass Ejection but it is heading northwest of the ecliptic. This CME is not earth-directed. See the provided image. The X1 CME from March 29 is expected to arrive late on April 1, or early on April 2 and could cause a minor G1 geomagnetic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Pity that the IMF is predicted to be North in the next couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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