Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity January 28th Analysis of the past 24h Solar activity has grown significantly in the past 48h and in the last 24h alone there where 8 M-class solar flares. The region responsible for most of them is returning region 1944 which now has number 1967. The largest M-class flare of today was an impulsive M3.6 and just moments ago we saw an impulsive M3.5. Like all other M-flares from this region, none of them had a long duration and thus produced no CME. Now that the region gets more into view, it's time to get a first look on the regions magnetic complexity but to tell if there are delta structures is not that easy because the region is still too close to the limb. But from the latest imagery there is already 1 delta structure clearly visible in the western part of the most western large cluster of the region. This region can be classified with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-75455300-1390924406.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-25036600-1390924434.jpgWhat can we expect in the upcoming 24h? More M-class flares are very likely with a slight chance for an impulsive X-class flare from region 1967 if development can continue within the region. M-class flare probability: 70% chanceX-class flare probability: 15% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice nice Any sign that it was that active while transiting on the far side of the sun? Btw what's the cause of the sudden higher solar speed and IMF values now? I didn't see any geoeffective flare lately on the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I haven't been following this region so much while it was on the far side but the days before it rotated on the disk it was active with some decent flares. The current values are I think from a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. There was a small Coronal Hole facing Earth 3 days ago, I suspect that is what we see. Don't expect much activity from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Update Analysis of the Solar Activity January 28th 22h15 Analysis of the past hours Sunspot region 1667 keeps crackling with M-class flares, last one was an M4.92. Reason why we make a new update is the interesting development that's going on in active region 1967. Strong spot growth is noticed in the southern part of the large trailing spot. It's now clear it has a positive polarity and all the new emerged spot has a negative polarity within the penumbral area of the trailing spot so these are all delta spots. They are close and compact together and if this development continues, an X-class flare can't be ruled out. So we will raise our chances for solar flares. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Due to the rapid development and the multiple delta spots, M-class flares are very likely with a growing chance for an X-class event. M-class flare probability: 80% chance X-class flare probability: 25% chance EDIT: While writing this post another M-class flare erupted from this region: M2,64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity January 29th 22h15 Analysis of the past 24h What a calm day compared to yesterday. After shooting one M-class flare after the other, sunspot region 1967 became more silent today and only produced multiple C-class flares. One of them was very long in duration. The region produced a few minor CME's but due to the location of the region this will have no Earthward component. Development continues within the sunspot region, gaining some penumbral area in the central part and growing spots in the center too. Looking at it magnetically we can now finally see the magnetic layout better now it's rotated better into view. The region maintains it's magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration with many delta spots in the region. We could determine at least 5 delta spots with the most interesting part just south of the large leader spot where a zone of positive polarity is squashed between two delta spots with negative polarity. Those delta spots have grown stronger the past 24h so this is really interesting and something to keep an eye on. If development continues there, a major flare (X-class) is possible. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-79714200-1391034196.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-06051600-1391034196.jpgWhat can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Although we didn't see an M-class flare today, the progression in the sunspot cluster keeps it very confident that it can produce M-class flares with a chance for an X-class flare. M-class flare probability: 70% chanceX-class flare probability: 15% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report M6.6 solar flare January 30 - 16:35 Solar activity increased to high levels. Sunspot region 1967 produced an M6.68 (R2-moderate) solar flare which peaked today at 16:11 UTC. The attached image shows the flare in four different SDO/AIA wavelengths. It was a long duration solar flare and there is a good chance that it launched a Coronal Mass Ejection. Region 1967 is however not yet in a good position for a CME to be Earth-directed. We have to wait for coronagraph imagery to see if there was a CME and if so, if it has an Earth-directed component. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-66761000-1391099564.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-09360900-1391099755.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-57941300-1391099772.png` UPDATE - 21:45 UTC Coronagraph imagery is slowly dripping in and a first analysis of the M6.6 CME can be made. LASCO C2 imagery is indeed showing a CME that got released following the M6.6 solar flare from region 1967. A faint asymmetrical full halo outline can be seen which means there is a weak Earth-directed component. This part is however considerably slower and weaker than the bulk of the CME which is heading well away from Earth. Also to be noted is that EPAM didn't show much of a response even now nearly 6 hours after the flare. This indicates that the CME is indeed likely to be weak. We do expect some sort of arrival from this CME but again: it will be weak, absolutely no geomagnetic storming is to be expected. Our first analysis suggests that the CME is expected to arrive somewhere during the second half of February 2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqc7srm6EDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Active region 1967 January 30th 22h22 Sunspot region 1967 has changed much compared to yesterday but still remains relatively stable. A few spots shrunk during the past 24h and also a bit of loss in penumbral area but the core itself is still magnetically very strong and is, compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger. The large positive leader spot joined with the southern positive spot and is very close to a magnetic soup of negative polarity that's full of tiny delta spots. These are very close to the opposite polarity spots so this friction is a good sign that a chance for a large eruption still persists. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 15% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity January 31st 23h22 Analysis of the past 24h Sunspot region 1967 has been relatively quiet today, there were no M-class flares from this region, only C-class flares. The only M-class flare from today came from region 1968. It was an M1.1 solar flare which did seem to have launched a weak CME. There is at the time of writing inadequate coronagraph imagery available to determine the geo-effectiveness of this CME. Looking at the large sunspot cluster 1967 it showed further development in the central part of the region and also generated a long trail of new sunspots in the northwestern part. This is very good news because yesterday a bit of decay was noted in the other parts. The new spots may help to boost the activity further. But to know that we have to look at the region magnetically, the region maintains it's beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration with at least 5 delta spots visible (see image). Compared to yesterday the strongest delta spots in the center gained in size and are now fairly large with the biggest negatively charged one very close to the positively charged spot. Because these two are very close together, it's enough to make a lot of trouble, meaning that this friction may be strong enough to produce a major flare (X-class). Region 1968 on the other hand is a Beta-Gamma region with no delta spots and is not very complex. Region 1968 could produce another low-level M-class flare but this is unlikely. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Although the region was fairly calm today with multiple C-class flares and failed to produce a strong flare today, we can say that but due to the further development and magnetic structure the chances for M-class flares remain very likely from region 1967 with a growing chance for an X-class event. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 15% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update - Februari 1, 11:00 UTC A quick update regarding sunspot region 1967. Two low-level M-class solar flares were observed today around region 1967. M1.0 and M3.0. Coronagraph imagery is currently limited but these events did not seem to have produced a Coronal Mass Ejection. A Coronal Mass Ejection visible on STEREO Ahead is determined to have come from a far side event. M3 solar flare Sunspot region 1967 continued to develop over the past 12 hours and still posses it's Beta-Gamma-Delta layout. It showed considerable penumbral growth and a majority of the flares come from it's intermediate spots where we currently see most of the growth. It is in that region that a new delta structure has formed during the night. All other delta spots remain stable. M-class flares are likely, with a growing chance for an X-class event. The solar flare chances for February 1 are: M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 25% chance Analysis M1 solar flare CME January 31 Enough coronagraph imagery is now available to analyse the CME from yesterdays M1 solar flare. Source region was AR1968. LASCO imagery shows a faint asymmetrical full halo CME with the majority of the ejecta heading north and away from Earth. There is a very faint Earth-directed component that could arrive on February 3 but considering how weak the halo outline is, we do not expect any significant geomagnetic activity from this CME. Analysis M3 solar flare CME January 31 First imagery of LASCO is coming in and it looks like a faint CME was visible but it's not associated with the M3. It is considered to be a backside event according to STEREO data. So we can determine no CME was associated with the M3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity February 2nd 02h00 Analysis of the past 24h Solar activity was moderate with only two minor M-class flares, more in our previous post. The region is continuously evolving and is now rearranging itself and it get's more difficult this way to determine the precise delta spots. In the center is a vast zone of negative polarity spots with on the northern side of it many positive polarity spots and also a few south of it. The main polarity of sunspots in this hemisphere is positive (leader spot) and negative for the followers in a normal beta group. In this case it's difficult because the main spot is positive and on the other side too, making the negative zone in the center of 1967 almost all delta spots because they are in the same penumbral area of the positive spots. Instead of determining the delta spots we split it up into polarity zones and you can see we draw a large line through the previously mentioned zone. Not yet an inversion line but it's a good evolution towards it. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? With this layout the region is very capable of producing a major flare but still failed to produce one. So we expect moderate to high solar activity with a chance for an X-class flare. A space radiation storm might get started if a strong flare occurs and a CME would likely be Earth-directed. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 20% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CalleB Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any news from the M4-flare this morning? An earth directed CME would be great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Minor update this afternoon. We have had three M-class flares that erupted shortly after one another and was a game between sunspot region 1967 en 1978. The first M-flare came from region 1968 and was an M2.64 flare but short in nature so probably no CME associated with it. Region 1967 became jealous and followed shortly after with an M2.28 solar flare and became a bit more angry shortly after with a strong M4.46. Imagery indicate only a far side eruption and no sign of a CME associated with the three M-class flares. Meanwhile the region is very restless with background flux near C2. During the past 12h the region further strengthened it's delta spots and is capable of producing a major flare but when is just a question of time. So keep an eye on the x-ray plot! Video of the 3 flares: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=515448025236378 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CalleB Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I meen the M2... Thanks for the (extremly) fast answer. There's so much going on with the M-flares, I lost track of wich one was the most powerful :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest diego Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, like there aren't a thread for AR11968, I post here the last M1.0 flare (16:30UT) about it http://solardemon.oma.be/flares_details.php?delay=100&clip=1&flare_id=1574 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 We didn't started a topic yet about 1968, mainly because it wasn't noteworthy until yesterday when it started to exhibit a weak magnetic delta structure. There is still one in it and just like in the past rotation 1968 and 1967 are magnetically connected together and caused then also eruptions because of the interaction. As for now, the flares from 1968 are not strong enough so we wait a bit before opening a topic about it. Now back to 1967, a giant and somewhat dormant region. How does the region hold on, is there further development or not? The most eastern delta spot which was very close to the opposite polarity spot is now more loose with the other polarity and losing a bit of strength. The rest of the region remains stable in terms of spot strength and penumbral area. A major flare is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity February 2nd 22h55 Analysis of the past 24h 8 low level M-class flares have been observed and tons of C-class flares with most of the activity from regions 1967 and 1968. In our previous posts you can read the updates on those flares. Of the last flares (the two M1 flares) we don't have enough imagery and data to know if there as a CME associated but due to the short duration it's likely that it does not have a CME associated with it as this was also the case with all other M-class flares. 1967 keeps on evolving and we posted a few updates today on the conditions of the sunspot cluster and in latest imagery there are again things changing inside the region. There are at least 8 magnetic delta structures visible inside the region with the strongest ones in the eastern part of the region below the large positively charged sunspot with south of that spot two very large and strong delta spots. Between the two dark cores in the trailing part of the sunspot there is something interesting noted in the penumbral section between. A few spots are trying to form there and might increase the magnetic tension between these large spots. The rest of the region remains very stable in terms of spots and penumbral area. Region 1968 was also active today, mostly due to true interaction with region 1967. The region has lost it's magnetic delta spots and is now a beta-gamma group. The other two regions are simple groups with no hazards. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? 1967 is a region with a very complex magnetic layout and harbors energy for a major solar flare (X1 and higher). If it occurs, a greater than 10 MeV proton event might follow. M-class flare probability: 85% chance X-class flare probability: 40% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Bonjour étonnant calme malgré les fortes interactions et les taches solaire au grand nombres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 1967 has been relatively calm today with no M-class flares or X-class flare just yet. It's not the first magnetically complex region that fails to produce significant flares. Is the region still magnetically complex enough to produce strong flares? Compared to this morning we notice some nice and less nice changes in the sunspot region. Because it's continuously changing we look at the region multiple times a day to better understand the chances on flares so this time it's not different. The most eastern strong delta formation of yesterday has shrunk a lot and is squashing itself between the big positive and the other negative delta spot. The central large negative polarity spot has matured and gained two new delta spots in the northern penumbral part and the two existing delta spots in the southern part weakened a bit. The soup of tiny spots in the western part of the cluster grew in size and magnetic complexity and gained some penumbral area. The most western spot also grew in size. In total we have 10 delta spots. So to sum things up, the magnetic complexity is still very strong, an X-class flare is still possible. The region remains very volatile and spits a lot of C-class flares out but yet failed to produce a major flare but that's just a question of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report So many flares... but what about the CMEs? Are there CMEs on their way to Earth? We are sure this is a question that some of you might have. First of all let's look back at the CMEs that were expected to arrive: one of them was a CME from the M6 flare that occurred in region 1967 (Jan 30) and another CME expected to arrive was from an M1 flare that occurred in region 1968 on January 31. The M6 CME looked like it arrived yesterday right before midnight. It was a very weak impact which hardly left a trace on the solar wind/IMF data. Like we expected, it was nowhere near strong enough to cause G1 geomagnetic storm conditions. The M1 CME was a faint asymmetrical full halo CME which still has to arrive. The ACE EPAM protons remain elevated (see image) which is a sign that there might be something on the way. Again, this was a weak CME and we expected only a minor impact within the next 24 hours with a Kp of 3 at most. All the other solar flares produced by 1967 and 1968 did not had Coronal Mass Ejections associated with them. The flares are just not eruptive enough unfortunately. Region 1967 is currently in a perfect geo effective position for Earth-directed eruptions. If it produces a Coronal Mass Ejection it will likely be Earth-directed. M-class flares are likely with a chance for an X-class event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity February 4th 06h05 Solar flare update: M3.84 and M5.22 Region 1967 has got enough sleep and woke up with a medium duration M3.84 flare and impulsive M5.22 flare shortly after. STEREO and LASCO imagery is far from complete, LASCO and STEREO shows a CME departing with bulk southwest but appears in LASCO imagery earlier than the M3 flare and looking at SDO AIA imagery this was due to a short filament eruption on the west limb. We still have to wait further imagery to know if there was a CME associated with it, EPAM low energy electors are slowly rising indicating there might be a CME partly Earth directed but this reaction can be due to the prominence eruption on the west limb. We will await further imagery before making a final analysis. M3.84 http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-1-0-76243500-1391494072.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-1-0-33331000-1391494073.png M5.22 http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-1-0-65974400-1391494071.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-1-0-03654500-1391494072.png Are the regions still strong enough for further flares? Let's start with region 1968 which has been more quiet too in the last day but there is a minor delta spot in the making in the central part of the region that may help to give it a chance for minor M-class flares but chances are fairly low. Region 1967 keeps on changing but in the central part there is some decay noted in penumbral area while on other parts of the region spots strengthened. The most eastern delta is still very strong and also in the western part it has come closer to the spot of opposite polarity. This is still enough to produce a major flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive ReportAnalysis of the Solar Activity - UpdateHere is a video of the M-class flaring activity that occurred this night around region 1967. Unfortunately... and this is starting to become a bit of a habit for this region... none of the flares launched a Coronal Mass Ejection. One CME visible on LASCO was determined to be unrelated to the M-class flares. It was from a short filament eruption on the west limb and does not have an Earth-directed component.https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=516619085119272 CME impactToday around 01:30 we saw the arrival of the CME associated with the M1 flare from 1968. The impact was very weak and quiet conditions were observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Has it ever happened that a sunspot stays that active for 3 rotations? Would be great to still have it there in about 26 days when I arrive in the Arctic Same goes for that huge coronal hole that was already there at the previous rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 @Kins: I've know sunspots that survive that long but those are the only the monster spots but most of the time after they have been active they are weaker in next rotation; this was a different story so perhaps ;-) Now that we have LASCO imagery complete we have two partial halo CME's that occurred today, one of early this morning, second one is from the long duration triple M-flare. Both with bulk of the CME headed southwest of the equator and the halo part is very very very faint. If it will arrive at Earth we won't notice a thing. Meanwhile region 1967 remains unrest full with still the same pattern of continues C-flares. The region itself has lost again some penumbral area globally in the past few hours but the magnetic delta structures are relatively stable. Major flares are still possible but if decay continues the chances might decrease... With region 1967 failing to deliver the goods at the moment, we thought it would be interesting to mention another interesting feature on the solar disk. This coronal hole will soon cross the central meridian and cause an enhanced stream of solar wind to arrive at Earth. This stream could arrive at Earth on February 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgL8Ue7xG2g Visible disk transit regions 1967 & 1968Active Regions 1967 and 1968 were the dominate forces that influenced space weather over the past 2 weeks. They are however now on the back side of the Sun and have thus rotated of the Earth-facing solar disk. These two regions were responsible for 31 (!) M-class flares during the the two weeks that they were visible and averaged about two M-class flares a day. The strongest of these flares was an M6.6 solar flare on January 30, which you see in this video. The eruption produced a full halo CME but it's impact on Earth was limited. Despite the size and complexity of sunspot region 1967, it failed to produce an X-class event and most of the M-class flares failed to launch CMEs. Only a few flares produced CMEs but they were all weak and did not cause geomagnetic storming. Nonetheless, regions 1967 and 1968 were impressive regions which are worth remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sunspot region 1967 is still active Our old friend active region 1967 (or 1944) is now 24 to 48 hours away from rotating back onto the visible solar disk. This region was very complex during it's previous transits and produced many M-class flares and even an X-class flare. This will be the third time that this region is going to show up at the eastern limb. What will be left of it? It is very rare that a sunspot group survives this long. But is it still active you ask? Oh yes it is, it produced a major flare only a few hours ago just behind the limb. The eruption produced a huge CME which is not Earth-directed. This video by SDO shows the eruption from behind the limb very clearly.Video ff3b49a6f5826c24532cb859e3ba79ff Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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