Vancanneyt Sander Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - October 2nd and 3rd 2013 Solar Activity and Geophysical Activity Summary In the night of September 29th-30th a large filament that was very close to Active Region 1850 snapped and hurled an impressive Coronal Mass Ejection into space. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the filament eruption had a lift-off speed of 650km/sec and was visible in LASCO imagery as an asymmetrical full halo CME. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTPMSDhcZzc https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=522434844510107 Immediately after the event, low level proton and electron levels started to rise and also a sharp rise in the greater than 10MeV protons was observed. Since the early morning hours a minor S1 Space Radiation Storm is in effect. This event is still gaining strength at the moment of writing, there is a chance that the S2 threshold may be reached as the CME get's closer to Earth. Synopsis Auroral Activity chances The asymmetrical full halo CME is Earth-directed with the bulk of the CME heading north and west of the ecliptic but a substantial part is heading towards Earth. If we take this into account with the speed of the CME we are looking at an impact on October 3rd, 2013 around 00:00 UTC. As always this prediction time has a plus/minus of 7 hours. A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch will in effect for October 2nd and October 3rd, 2013. At impact, the IMF will probably be southward directed and can thus initiate unsettled (Kp4) to minor G1 (Kp5) storm conditions. A G2 moderate geomagnetic storm is also possible but only to a lesser extend. G2 storming will only happen if the conditions are really favorable. Ideally we need a high Bt value and a strong southward Bz. Solar wind speed is expected to be around 450km/sec at impact which is not very fast. Density is expected to be at 40p/cm3 during impact. It will only be possible to really determine what kind of geomagnetic conditions are to be expected once an impact has been detected and we know what the solar wind and IMF values are, so keep following our updates in this topic and on our social media channels for the most up-to-date and accurate information. Low Latitudes: 1% chance Lower Middle Latitudes: 15% chance Upper Middle Latitudes: 40% chance High Latitudes: 90% chance The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see auroras during a G1 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Seattle (WA, USA) Chicago (IL, USA) Toronto (ON, Canada) Halifax (NS, Canada) Europe: Edinburgh (Scotland) Gothenburg (Sweden) Riga (Latvia) Southern Hemisphere: Hobart (Australia) Invercargill (New Zealand) More info The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see auroras during a G2 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Portland (OR, USA) Boise (ID, USA) Casper (WY, USA) Lincoln (NE, USA) Indianapolis (IN, USA) Columbus (OH, USA) New York City (NY, USA) Europe: Dublin (Ireland) Manchester (England) Hamburg (Germany) Gdańsk (Poland) Vilnius (Lithuania) Moscow (Russia) Southern Hemisphere: Devonport (Australia) Christchurch (New Zealand) More info Caution! If the Space Radiation Storm intensifies to the S2 level, be aware that the date coming from ACE might become unreliable. This will be seen in the solar wind speed and density measurements. IMF values will remain reliable. More information. We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report CME impact - October 2nd 2013 A faster than expected and moderately strong impact was observed this night following the filament eruption of September 29th. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-97886700-1380693490.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-58402100-1380693491.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-48810300-1380693742.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-74032400-1380693742.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-74903700-1380693861.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-95417100-1380693861.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-24161700-1380693862.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-66815100-1380693862.png The CME impacted way earlier than expected and results in a stronger impact with a high solar wind speed and density and a moderate strength of the IMF with strong southward direction of the IMF. A G2 storm is expected and thus a middle latitude auroral activity warning is now in effect. Magnetometers already showed activity that was sufficient enough for high mid latitude regions. Kp values up to Kp7 might have been locally possible for short moments considering the deflection on the Kiruna magnetogram. Continued minor to strong geomagnatic storming will be possible as the CME passes Earth. If you followed us on Twitter you'll had the alerts already, keep following our website to see the latest information and data and Twitter for our 24/7 live alerts. In case the storm gains strength to G3 level which stands for a Kp-index of 7, these areas will have a fair chance to see aurorae under good local viewing conditions: North America: Salt Lake City (UT, USA) Denver (CO, USA) Nashville (TN, USA) Richmond (VA, USA)Europe: London (England) Brussels (Belgium) Cologne (Germany) Dresden (Germany) Warsaw (Poland)Southern Hemisphere: Melbourne (Australia) Wellington (New Zealand) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Geomagnetic conditions update - October 2nd 2013 Geomagnetic conditions are calming down to lesser storm levels. Observed Kp values of 5 and 6 have been measured since the arrival of the 29th September CME but some magnetometers had readings of Kp7 and Kp8 for isolated moments when the Bz dropped as low as -30nT for a short period when it was nighttime in North-America. The Bz is currently pointing very stubbornly North which decreases geomagnetic activity. The solar wind speed remains elevated near 600km/sec but the Bt has also fallen to below moderate values of around 12nT at the time of writing. Only minor G1 geomagnetic storming is to be expected right now but if the Bz stays like this we should fall below storm levels within the next hours. Sky watchers in Tasmania and Southern New Zealand should however remain alert for aurorae on the southern horizon.Current conditions: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-47856400-1380709902.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-31851900-1380709903.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-33598500-1380709904.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-01660100-1380709905.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-45627600-1380709905.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Geomagnetic conditions update and Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch recap - October 2nd 2013 Recap: On October 2nd 2013 around 01:20 UTC we saw the faster then expected arrival of the CME which was launched by a >filament eruption on September 29th. We saw a decent impact with speeds around 650km/sec. Impressive IMF values were measured at the height of the storm. Around 0424 UTC we saw a Bz of -29.4nT and the Bt was at 32.7nT. Impressive values but they did not last so long. Despite of this, some magnetometers were measuring K-indices of 7 and even 8 for a short moment. North America had a great show with many pictures and aurora reports from the northern United States. After around 07:00 UTC the Bz went North and this halted further storming. Kp values of three were measured which stands for quiet geomagnetic conditions. Despite of this, sky watchers from southern New Zealand and Tasmania did see some aurora but perhaps not as spectacular as it could have been. The official Kp-values for this storm will go into history as a Kp 5 for the 00:00-03:00 UTC period. Kp 6 for the 00:00-06:00 UTC period and Kp 5 for the 06:00-09:00 UTC period. Current conditions: We are currently seeing combined effects of a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream and the waning effects of this night's CME impact. The Bz has been slightly South at -5nT for a while now which should cause a slight increase in geomagnetic disturbance as solar wind speed remains elevated around 550km/sec. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet right now (Kp3) but unsettled (Kp4) conditions are possible in the coming hours. European high latitude sky watchers need to be alert for auroras, particularity those above the line Oslo-Stockholm-Helsinki and the most northern tip of Scotland. An isolated period of G1 geomagnetic storming can not be ruled out. Follow the data on the website for the most recent forecasts. Latest image from the Nature of Jokkmokk cams: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-15202800-1380743638.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-61898300-1380746236.jpg Latest image from the Norwegian Polar Institute cam: This concludes our coverage of the October 2nd-3rd Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch. We hope you enjoyed our coverage and had a chance to see the aurora borealis/australis with your own eyes! Did you make images then feel free to upload them in our gallery and post them on our forums! As always, keep following us on Facebook and Google+. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.