29 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Very good thinking!  Could be!!   Edit:   In fact you’re probably absolutely correct. This is not unlike many prior events where the way for a subsequent CME was “cleared” by prior events and big mamma comes along “ cleaning house”.  🤣🤣🤣

If so, we may be looking at quite a storm this weekend!!

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

do you really believe in his stuff? 

i had to laugh too. Ben is a joke.. does anyone believe him?

I was thinking of Patrick, actually @MinYoongi

7 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

If so, we may be looking at quite a storm this weekend!!

Indeed!!!

23 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

take cover!!! 

34 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

I love clowning on Youtubers. 😆

Pulled post myself. 

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

34 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

do you really believe in his stuff? 

i had to laugh too. Ben is a joke.. does anyone believe him?

I don't know. I feel his scientific knowledge in areas like climate change are lacking, but he seems smart and he rarely exaggerates his forecasts. 

7 minutes ago, Members only said:

I haven’t looked into it in a long time, was anyone ever able to associate a miyake event to a solar storm? 

If you mean a historically documented one, then I doubt we'll find anything very conclusive. On the Wikipedia page this is the only plausible reference listed:

Quote

Quote

Annus Domini (the year of the Lord) 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mull, for their lord, who reigned four winters. This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset; the Mercians and the men of Kent fought at Otford; and wonderful serpents were seen in the land of the South-Saxons.

— Anglo-Saxon Chronicle

The "red crucifix" recorded by the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle has been variously hypothesised to have been a supernova or the aurora borealis.

That's referring to the 774-775 spike specifically, the first one discovered by Miyake, although several events have been called Miyake events at this point. Whether or not the spike was caused by Solar activity or not is another question, but it's still considered the most plausible explanation due to its suddenness.

25 minutes ago, tniickck said:

take cover!!! 

Good morning @tniickck  mercy. Really tired here!  Was digging a bunker all night!  Now to pour those twenty foot lead lined walls inside of it will be quite a project too.  🤣🤣🤣

8 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

I don't know. I feel his scientific knowledge in areas like climate change are lacking, but he seems smart and he rarely exaggerates his forecasts. 

He exaggerates a lot, mostly for money. He’s a scam artist. He has no scientific background or anything lol.

14 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

I don't know. I feel his scientific knowledge in areas like climate change are lacking, but he seems smart and he rarely exaggerates his forecasts. 

do you see anyone else, literally anyone else, any expert, any forecaster, anyone here say anything like him? no? Go figure

1 minute ago, Members only said:

He exaggerates a lot, mostly for money. He’s a scam artist. He has no scientific background or anything lol.

I never see him exaggerate. I think he only said once that a solar storm is urgent, otherwise he is chill, so t

1 hour ago, Justanerd said:

The type II radio emission from the flare was at 1004 km/s - the CME will be much slower by the time it reaches earth - my best guess is 42-54 hours until arrival but I’m just guessing 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

It’s not a bad guess at all.  The primary cme behind the priors is likely to be slowed a bit if that’s your thinking. 

8 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

I never see him exaggerate. I think he only said once that a solar storm is urgent, otherwise he is chill, so t

Why do you think everyone on here, and every professional does not want to refer to him, talk to him, or take his stuff on a face level? Serious question.

8 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

I never see him exaggerate. I think he only said once that a solar storm is urgent, otherwise he is chill, so t

Ohh, this definitely has to be bait.

At what point on the disk does this region pose zero or almost zero chance of a geo effective cme? 

About Ben, hmmm i do not think he is a laughable fraud. That's the exagerration. He do not need to be perfect all the time. Some days ago he endorsed nice book (reading it at the moment) "Magnetic Reversals and Evolutionary leaps". 

20 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

At what point on the disk does this region pose zero or almost zero chance of a geo effective cme? 

Here is a graphic from a paper on CME deflection which shows the origins of various EFHCMEs (Earth-encountered frontside halo CMEs):

As you can see there are some events that hit even from 60-75° of longitude, and many from 30-50°, so I'd say this region still has good chances over the next couple of days at least.

Reminder: please stay on topic. 
Discussion of Ben Davidson is not allowed in this forum. 
Thank you!

Ok, sorry for off topic talking. And thanks for your replies. Always something to learn here  Keep good work.

Wow. I just counted 13 M flares and Two x flares from this region alone out of the last twenty on Solar Soft. Incredible 

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

It’s not a bad guess at all.  The primary cme behind the priors is likely to be slowed a bit if that’s your thinking. 

Exactly that and the lack of extreme force behind the CME’s 

3 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

Exactly that and the lack of extreme force behind the CME’s 

can you elaborate?

12 minutes ago, PandorasParabox said:

Earths magnetic field is weakening

Here and here and here and here are some relatively recent threads where you can get a more nuanced understanding of the situation; reply there if you wish to discuss that particular fact further, but only after having read through and digested them.

That's all I'll say about that.

28 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

Exactly that and the lack of extreme force behind the CME’s 

Yeah. Unfortunately Im sooo far north its daylight at ten pm now practically.   Anyway our Southern Hemisphere is likely to have a real show, wherever there are few clouds and the BZ works out too ! Ironically my sister in California may have a better opportunity than me if we really hit KP8. Better give her a heads up.  Good thinking btw  @Justanerd

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Latitude woes in summer

How are these CMEs compared to the one in 1859?  How much do we know about that one?  Was it one big one or several smaller ones like G3s or G4s?

Can several in a row weaken the magnetic field so that a G4 would cause more damage than a G4 all by itself?  Also, I heard this morning that there are 4 headed towards us but now I'm hearing that 3 are confirmed to hit us and 2 more maybes or partial hits?  What are the predicted measurements for each?

 

Edit: Shortly after I posted this, my power and internet went out for 5 minutes.  We live in the country so no cell phone service.  I was like: no way is this happening now.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Franklin