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AR3654


Adohran
Go to solution Solved by Philalethes,

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It has grown significantly overnight, now producing a M 2.1 flare.

Edit: Seems to be producing a small CME of some sort.

Edited by mozy
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26 minutes ago, mozy said:

It has grown significantly overnight, now producing a M 2.1 flare.

Edit: Seems to be producing a small CME of some sort.

Just got to see it, those 2 larger spots weren't there yesterday. 

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44 minutes ago, mozy said:

 

Edit: Seems to be producing a small CME of some sort.

came here because of this :)  Is it a noteworthy CME or something thats not worth talking about / unlikely to reach us? 

24 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Just got to see it, those 2 larger spots weren't there yesterday. 

which ones exactly? :D  Did not watch in a few days. sdo movies wont work on mobile 😕 shit :D 

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I typically use solar ham for the 131 movie.  His site appears to be down presently.  Got a weird message before like it was an imitator or something like that.  He got hacked before. Probably will be back up by Monday we hope Btw .. Good afternoon European kids. 😇

53 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Just got to see it, those 2 larger spots weren't there yesterday. 

Yes, absolutely.  Plus the centermost positive ( upper) isn’t a delta that I can see, but it is awfully close to that negative directly beneath it.  

Edited by hamateur 1953
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24 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I typically use solar ham for the 131 movie.  His site appears to be down presently.  Got a weird message before like it was an imitator or something like that.  He got hacked before. Probably will be back up by Monday we hope Btw .. Good afternoon European kids. 😇

Yes, absolutely.  Plus the centermost positive ( upper) isn’t a delta that I can see, but it is awfully close to that negative directly beneath it.  

he's not hacked! he changed the domain to .com from .net ! :)  https://solarham.com/  <- This works 

 

 

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2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

he's not hacked! he changed the domain to .com from .net ! :)  https://solarham.com/  <- This works 

 

 

Thanks Min!   It drives my safari browser nuts though. It freaked completely!  Oh well. Kevin will get it sorted soon.  Just had to redo some bookmarks no biggie. 🐈‍⬛

Edited by hamateur 1953
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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

nice :) do you think its eruptive? Your gut feeling? 

No point in using gut feeling, but this region has produced some sort of CME from almost every M-flare, so I have higher hopes for it.

Edited by mozy
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1 minute ago, mozy said:

No point in using gut feeling, but this region has produced some sort of CME from almost every M-flare, so I have higher hopes for it.

I did not know it did, i guess i was too focussed on the 3 regions on the departing limb :)  thank you :) 

When i looked at it in SDO, it looked less complex. so im a bit surprised by the flare 

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

When i looked at it in SDO, it looked less complex. so im a bit surprised by the flare 

Why so? It still has a clear delta spot with more spots still forming & merging.

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Just now, mozy said:

Why so? It still has a clear delta spot with more spots still forming & merging.

If i compare now to 15:00Z the delta has seemingly lost size and it looked like it is drifting apart, the red moving south-west a bit. thus said, as long as theres a delta i know its possible and i know where they shrink others can grow and as you said, regions form and merge and move. 🤷‍♀️ 

i just like to take a really, really close look to "small" changes rather than the "big picture". not meant as an offense or anything against the region or badmouthing it :D 

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1 hour ago, Adohran said:

304 also doesn't really show eruptive behavior, another impulsive flare without a CME. I guess we never had those before xd

maybe @Philalethes can help us figure out if its magnetic caging (i doubt) or another reason :) 

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3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

maybe @Philalethes can help us figure out if its magnetic caging (i doubt) or another reason :) 

My best guess is that there wasn't enough shear angle present when the flare ribbons reconnected. I haven't learned how to calculate unassigned magnetic flux reliably so I'm making an assumption when I say it's probably about average. 

Here's an interesting article about Shear Angle and it's role in Magnetic Reconnection 🙂

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/acebeb

Edited by Parabolic
Grammer
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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

maybe @Philalethes can help us figure out if its magnetic caging (i doubt) or another reason :) 

I strongly doubt it's caging at this point, at least not based on the paper we've discussed. Here is the data on this region, and as you can see in the second to rightmost column it just barely crossed the 3e+22 Mx threshold identified as the lower bound for confined flares, and when those flares occurred it was significantly lower. I'm guessing it had more to do with the flare itself being too weak and impulsive.

Edited by Philalethes
typo
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