Jesterface23 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Fine tuning the calculations, it's still not much. Maybe around 3-4 days travel time to L1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MeteoLatvia Posted March 14 Popular Post Share Posted March 14 A few hours ago, a beautiful filament eruption happened near the center of the visible Solar disk. It seems that most of the ejecta is heading northwards, but LASCO data still comes in so I wouldn't completely rule out at least some Earth-directed component. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) Wow! Major filament lift at about 213 UTC - visible CME in 195a - nice eruption in 304a - south central area of disc - involves a large area - ejecta appears to be to the south and very slow Edited March 17 by Justanerd Added description 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 31 minutes ago, Justanerd said: Wow! Major filament lift at about 213 UTC - visible CME in 195a - nice eruption in 304a - south central area of disc - involves a large area - ejecta appears to be to the south and very slow About time! I've been watching that thing for over an hour haha. Really nice dimming in 193aia that stretches a good distance near center disk 😌 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Parabolic said: About time! I've been watching that thing for over an hour haha. Really nice dimming in 193aia that stretches a good distance near center disk 😌 Thanks for posting the 193 Ang. I saw nothing in 131 until I knew where to look from the 3/17 most recent 193. It really is quite impressive! Edited March 17 by hamateur 1953 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just checked the data and it really was beautiful. I do see faint full halo CME, although, looks like most of the ejecta is headed southward... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesterface23 Posted March 17 Popular Post Share Posted March 17 I'd have a preliminary arrival at L1 around noon on the 20th to early on the 21st. We are likely to be in line for a near direct hit, though the CME is very slow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 According to SWPC ENLIL model it's weak glancing blow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, Maciej Dunst said: According to SWPC ENLIL model it's weak glancing blow at best. Strangely, NASA hasn’t modeled the CME yet - nothing new from them for 4 days - and NOAA’s model is odd in the manner it splits around earth 🤷♂️ but they are saying midday on the 20th like Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) 2 hours ago, Justanerd said: Strangely, NASA hasn’t modeled the CME yet - nothing new from them for 4 days - and NOAA’s model is odd in the manner it splits around earth 🤷♂️ but they are saying midday on the 20th like Jesterface23 That is bizarre. Haha. Wow. Sounds like a promo for a disaster movie @Justanerd Edited March 17 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 hours ago, Justanerd said: Strangely, NASA hasn’t modeled the CME yet - nothing new from them for 4 days - and NOAA’s model is odd in the manner it splits around earth 🤷♂️ but they are saying midday on the 20th like Jesterface23 Looks like they've remodeled it and predict a 03/21 arrival with a more centered impact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Looking at the rest of the imagery that came in, it doesn't help much. I'll just stick with an arrival expected at L1 around noon on the 20th to early on the 21st. Unless there is some sort of surprise, maybe only up to Kp4 possible would be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Looking at the rest of the imagery that came in, it doesn't help much. I'll just stick with an arrival expected at L1 around noon on the 20th to early on the 21st. Unless there is some sort of surprise, maybe only up to Kp4 possible would be expected. NOAA has re-modeled the filament CME on ENLIL - now showing a direct hit and impact to occur early morning (400UTC) on 21 March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1830-2030utc 21 mar two very large filament eruptions - one in the ne quadrant centered around ar3614 - a very fiery event one in the sw quadrant both ejected coronal mass as seen on LASCO c2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Can someone look at suvi 195a at about 2116 utc and explain what is happening in the ne corner of the CH?? Please thank you! is that a filament or what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 31 minutes ago, Justanerd said: Can someone look at suvi 195a at about 2116 utc and explain what is happening in the ne corner of the CH?? Please thank you! is that a filament or what?? Looked like it was a filament near 3615. Good candidate for a stealth CME! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, Parabolic said: Looked like it was a filament near 3615. Good candidate for a stealth CME! It opened up the CH where it erupted - neat to see something I hadn’t seen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Looks like most of the material from that filament snap fell back down. The CME itself looked kind of underwhelming and slow on C3 and as mentioned, mostly Northern directed. 304 SDO video looked pretty cool though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 (edited) Large filament eruption near 3614. Edited March 22 by chronical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 That looked more like an eruptive flare than a filament lift to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, cgrant26 said: That looked more like an eruptive flare than a filament lift to me. Might be the angle of the eruption but it followed where the neutral boundary line runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Nice filament in the SE part of the visible disc. For now, looks stable, but it needs to "turn" closer to the center before erupting if we want an Earth-directed component. Anyways - something to watch for in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewB Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Nice But, it seems be too far south and short in my opinion. I'm affraid that even if it will erupts, we could have at most a glancing blow by northern edge or even a close miss. We'll see Regards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 32 minutes ago, AndrewB said: Nice But, it seems be too far south and short in my opinion. I'm affraid that even if it will erupts, we could have at most a glancing blow by northern edge or even a close miss. We'll see Regards Fully my thoughts. Although - I just give some hope, because for now, we have nothing better to see on visible disc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 On 3/27/2024 at 4:52 AM, MeteoLatvia said: Nice filament in the SE part of the visible disc. For now, looks stable, but it needs to "turn" closer to the center before erupting if we want an Earth-directed component. Anyways - something to watch for in the next few days. This filament seems to be floating now on 304a - I expect a snap, lift or eruption from it very soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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