Parabolic Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, Maciej Dunst said: So, what do you guys think? Total miss? 3 hours ago, Philalethes said: Personally I think it's on the late end and still coming, but the later the weaker it will probably be. Can't be sure though. I mostly agree with Philalethes, to me I believe it's going to be a late arrival. In my novice opinion I don't think it will weaken much if at all. These are based upon my best educated guesses and comparing old data with current data 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 An arrival is still coming. My best guess is a northern pole CH may have messed with the CME a little bit in coronagraph imagery more than expected. I'd expect an L1 arrival within the next 8 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: An arrival is still coming. My best guess is a northern pole CH may have messed with the CME a little bit in coronagraph imagery more than expected. I'd expect an L1 arrival within the next 8 hours. 7 hours now About to be 6 hours Now on the space weather prediction center it says on the 14th g1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 They're always late/miss Earth whenever the SWPC sees a CME and tries to predict it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What do you mean by that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, Kayla Bisson said: Gosh I hope so! I actually have clear skies for once. I live in the middle lats of Canada but luckily near a dark sky preserve so I might just get lucky! Its been months since I've seen a good show. A dark sky preserve?? And north of Seattle Wa. Envy overtakes me again!! Haha. Good luck there! @Kayla Bisson Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well this is a bummer. Higher-energy protons still seem to be rising slightly after all the protons leveled out though, I would think that means this is still incoming, but it's getting really late now. Strange, but it's not exactly news that space weather is really unpredictable. Maybe the protons are from the farside eruption and that this one just missed or was extremely weak. At this point it would be an unreasonably late arrival at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Well this is a bummer. Higher-energy protons still seem to be rising slightly after all the protons leveled out though, I would think that means this is still incoming, but it's getting really late now. Strange, but it's not exactly news that space weather is really unpredictable. Maybe the protons are from the farside eruption and that this one just missed or was extremely weak. At this point it would be an unreasonably late arrival at least. IMO something passed earth last night, as the wind speed and density had some unusual ups and downs. No sign of IMF sudden change, but this is normal when comes to extremely weak glancing blow ICMEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Does anybody have any aurora pictures if you got? Any recently So miss or glancing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Hmm. There could have been a weak arrival early this morning, but it is unclear. ACE's EPAMp is still fairly high, so all we can do is wait and see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Look at was-enill it shows one after another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Look at was-enill it shows one after another It’s important to keep in mind WSA-ENILL is a model, not data, and can be wrong. It’s made by experts, and is often pretty good, but because our data/imagery of CMEs is limited, the model can be wrong. Not saying that’s necessarily the case here, just something to bear in mind when analyzing space weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It shows this I know it’s a model just sharing it The model shows this at 8:00utc on the 13th if it’s true it might of happened already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: It’s important to keep in mind WSA-ENILL is a model, not data, and can be wrong. It’s made by experts, and is often pretty good, but because our data/imagery of CMEs is limited, the model can be wrong. Not saying that’s necessarily the case here, just something to bear in mind when analyzing space weather. Enlil without STEREO A point of view is useless. I don't know when was the last time it was even close to the reality... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Welp, it took a while, but it arrived finally. ............. It arrived in a HSS that should of torn it apart, so the IMF shock held up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Welp, it took a while, but it arrived finally. ............. It arrived in a HSS that should of torn it apart, so the IMF shock held up well. Cool @Jesterface23 as is typical, im overcast here but hopefully some Canadians have a shot at seeing something. Perhaps our midwest as well…. Edit. Well. Bz north. No power. Even kiruna says zip nada. Hmm. Probably will go KP eight when I leave site. Edited February 15 by hamateur 1953 Arrival? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 55 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Welp, it took a while, but it arrived finally. ............. It arrived in a HSS that should of torn it apart, so the IMF shock held up well. You call that an arrival? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, LunarLights58 said: You call that an arrival? It's better than a little under 400km/s velocities without the HSS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, Nathan Majors said: It shows this I know it’s a model just sharing it The model shows this at 8:00utc on the 13th if it’s true it might of happened already The model almost means nothing to me at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: It's better than a little under 400km/s velocities without the HSS lol :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now