Parabolic Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Philalethes said: There's certainly truth to this, but I guess the most interesting situations that are usually referred to is when an even bigger snowplow comes up behind at double the mass and speed, and is then followed by a huge bulldozer with a turbomotor, at which point you get some rather interesting results (and usually some of the most complex magnetic field structures when they do end up passing us). I wish there was a reasonable way to simulated such events as this. I want to see what sort of effects the 1972 CME and the 2003 CME's were to have on our magnetosphere and other near-space regions. Once again I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/11/2024 at 2:12 PM, Philalethes said: Yeah, I see they are modeling an even smaller angle than what I assumed from the dimming; using that angle of ~22.5° (rough estimate from looking at the model) combined with the latest imagery I'd say arrival would be as little as ~44 hours after launch, which would correspond to 02-13T19Z, but of course with uncertainty. Seems to correspond with their time, but from experience that's not exactly that reliable. Edit: Actually, scratch that; I realize now the launch was actually on the 10th, so clearly I'm greatly overestimating the speed, as I'd get almost a full day earlier than the above model. I just tried again, this time to apply the speed I measured from LASCO to the bulk as seen in the imagery above, at around an angle of 30° instead, and now I'm getting values much more in agreement with what I see in the forecasts, with a speed of ~900 km/s and a transit time of ~54 hours. That's actually the same as the estimate I made in the previous post, heh; also seems to be in good agreement with the others (arrival between 02-13T05Z and 02-13T17Z instead, to account for me getting the day wrong). what exactly does 02-13T17Z mean? february 13th 17:00 UTC or it doesn't refer to time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, willow said: what exactly does 02-13T17Z mean? february 13th 17:00 UTC or it doesn't refer to time? you got it right. Z=Zulu (UTC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: you got it right. Z=Zulu (UTC) thank you !! also great to know bc my time is utc+3 and the sky will be clear tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, willow said: thank you !! also great to know bc my time is utc+3 and the sky will be clear tomorrow im utc+1 you cant be far then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, willow said: what exactly does 02-13T17Z mean? february 13th 17:00 UTC or it doesn't refer to time? 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: you got it right. Z=Zulu (UTC) Yep, exactly that. Just the most compact way to write it while still making it clear that it's UTC (although in discussions like this it would probably be fairly obvious anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: im utc+1 you cant be far then! northwestern russia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No worry’s right I know y’all have told me to not worry but just asking and nasa has said general public does not need to be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, Parabolic said: I wish there was a reasonable way to simulated such events as this. I want to see what sort of effects the 1972 CME and the 2003 CME's were to have on our magnetosphere and other near-space regions. Once again I digress. you might wish to view this at your leisure @Parabolic Tamitha Skov is an excellent scientist imho and a Ham coincidentally haha. She models and discusses the 1972 event in depth here. Hopefully this is half as interesting to you as it was to me. Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: you might wish to view this at your leisure @Parabolic Tamitha Skov is an excellent scientist imho and a Ham coincidentally haha. She models and discusses the 1972 event in depth here. Hopefully this is half as interesting to you as it was to me. Mike. She's actually the one who inspired me to study flare dynamics and plasma physics! I'm currently doing my second run through all of her courses. I didn't retain as much education as I would like so this time I'm writing down everything I should know. Are you by chance a member of her mini course patreon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Parabolic said: She's actually the one who inspired me to study flare dynamics and plasma physics! I'm currently doing my second run through all of her courses. I didn't retain as much education as I would like so this time I'm writing down everything I should know. Are you by chance a member of her mini course patreon? No, unfortunately I am not. Just a fellow Ham who was actually informed of her existence on this site! Haha. Glad to have ya aboard! Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 it seems to arrive a bit later than expected or not to arrive at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, tniickck said: it seems to arrive a bit later than expected or not to arrive at all there was a discussion yesterday and the possible arrival is today at 17 utc. let's hope it's true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, tniickck said: it seems to arrive a bit later than expected or not to arrive at all 2 hours ago, willow said: there was a discussion yesterday and the possible arrival is today at 17 utc. let's hope it's true! Most predictions on CME Scoreboard seem to be centered between 10Z and 17Z, so I'm thinking we'll see signs of it within the next ~6 hours or so. Pretty bad timing for aurora watchers if that's the case, but if it's on the later end of that spectrum maybe it can get dark enough in places like Europe and Russia wherever skies are clear. I guess if it arrives seconds after I post this it could work for people on the west coast of the US too (or people in East/Southeast Asia or Australia for that matter). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 The EPAMp 47-68keV line is holding around 200k after the impact late last night. Something still seems to be coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The EPAMp 47-68keV line is holding around 200k after the impact late last night. Something still seems to be coming. I agree, there's only been very minor enhancements in the solar wind.My guess those are just the transient effects from all the other activity that wasn't directed at earth. I'm certainly expecting a decent shock arrival well passed 20bt reaching at least 30bt-40bt. Since it will probably hit before dark (I'm located in the Northern Plains USA) a deviation of 80nt-120nt at 40°lat. (Boulder is my closest magnetometer) is what I expect. I might be a little too hopeful but I usually am in these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So likely g2 higher latitude g1 at lower latitude posilby 14 hours ago, Kayla Bisson said: Nathan you keep asking if you should be worried and if you aren't going to believe NASA or the many times we've already told you there's nothing we're going to say that will suddenly convince you to join ALL of us here and enjoy it. This isn't the thread but lets put this to bed, what exactly are you worried about happening? If you list your fears I'm sure lots of us here can point you in the direction of some reliable information that can help educate you and hopefully help your anxiety. *edit I hope my tone isn't rude I just hoping to ease some distress Your good you weren’t being rude sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner I’m worried about these geomagnetic storms knocking the satellites to the ground I know it probably won’t happen and the power going out and possible nuclear meltdown even though they have the measures You weren’t a jerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 33 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: So likely g2 higher latitude g1 at lower latitude posilby Your good you weren’t being rude sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner I’m worried about these geomagnetic storms knocking the satellites to the ground I know it probably won’t happen and the power going out and possible nuclear meltdown even though they have the measures You weren’t a jerk satellites are being lost when a really strong flares occur, like, for example, the october-november 2003 ones, which is super rare. a CME impact from M9 flare isn't that strong, it's going to be ok, don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Parabolic said: I'm certainly expecting a decent shock arrival well passed 20bt reaching at least 30bt-40bt. what do you base this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what do you base this on? These are just my expectations based on the estimated density and speed then comparing it to similar recent events. Like I said, I'm usually a little hopeful haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: The EPAMp 47-68keV line is holding around 200k after the impact late last night. Something still seems to be coming. There was also a coincident sustained boost in Bt measured by ACE. Could this have been the solar wind from the transient coronal hole produced by this flare? Or the later filament eruption to the south? Lots of options on the buffet. Edited February 13 by Drax Spacex IMF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So, what do you guys think? Total miss? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 49 minutes ago, Maciej Dunst said: So, what do you guys think? Total miss? Personally I think it's on the late end and still coming, but the later the weaker it will probably be. Can't be sure though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I think it arrived, but ACE and DSCOVR don't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: I think it arrived, but ACE and DSCOVR don't work No sign of arrival still, so I guess it's a miss again. Aurora chasers are not lucky this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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