Philalethes Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Parabolic said: Post flare arcade loops are often identical to the pre-flare state. They won't "break" they same way but can release more than one CME alongside the usual X-ray emissions. This sounds like a bit of an odd statement to me. The dynamics involved are of course enormously complex, but as far as I know the post-flare arcades form along the neutral line after reconnection occurs, as seen in e.g. the visualized MHD simulations near the bottom of this paper, where you can also see the formation of the flux rope above the post-flare arcades. Those loops forming the post-flare arcades might look similar to the coronal loops observed before the flare, but will be oriented in a very different direction, and be much more magnetically stable. Perhaps you could explain what you mean in a bit more detail? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) What I was hoping would happen again was an event i’d witnessed at least twice this SC. A cool explosion/CME. The loop breaks, falls a bit then, whammo! Think of trying to push two magnets together except you are dealing with our personal self-contained thermonuclear furnace. Haha. Big things can occur on reconnection. That was My hope anyway. Apologies for butting in @Philalethes Edited January 29 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: What I was hoping would happen again was an event i’d witnessed at least twice this SC. A cool explosion/CME. The loop breaks, falls a bit then, whammo! Think of trying to push two magnets together except you are dealing with our personal self-contained thermonuclear furnace. Haha. Big things can occur on reconnection. That was My hope anyway. Apologies for butting in @Philalethes Yeah, but I believe that describes and occurs with sheared pre-flare arcades, which then turn into the non-sheared post-flare arcades we see here, as well as the flux rope above it (which is what ends up being released as a CME). In that case you would indeed see the loops breaking and the new arcades forming underneath in a different direction, generally closer to perpendicular the stronger the event. I don't think the post-flares themselves will typically behave in that manner, since they're the more stable end result of the reconnection process, i.e. after the magnets have forcefully realigned in your analogy. If you are referring specifically to post-flare arcades I'd certainly be interested in more details about how that works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 A forecast addon. At this point I'd go with G1 being most likely. If we enter a CIR prior to an early arrival, then G2 may be possible around the time of the CME arrival. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 29 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: A forecast addon. At this point I'd go with G1 being most likely. If we enter a CIR prior to an early arrival, then G2 may be possible around the time of the CME arrival. There is a prognose for G1-G3, but I would go with G1 and small chance of G2 too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Yeah, but I believe that describes and occurs with sheared pre-flare arcades, which then turn into the non-sheared post-flare arcades we see here, as well as the flux rope above it (which is what ends up being released as a CME). In that case you would indeed see the loops breaking and the new arcades forming underneath in a different direction, generally closer to perpendicular the stronger the event. I don't think the post-flares themselves will typically behave in that manner, since they're the more stable end result of the reconnection process, i.e. after the magnets have forcefully realigned in your analogy. If you are referring specifically to post-flare arcades I'd certainly be interested in more details about how that works. Not necessarily post flare arcades, both events were limb and were depicted on solar soft along the top as they typically do. Both were triggered by reconnection. Hopefully that clears that up. Mike/Hagrid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuroraGuy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, Parabolic said: Post flare arcade loops are often identical to the pre-flare state. They won't "break" they same way but can release more than one CME alongside the usual X-ray emissions. I suggest reading the following paper https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/yashiro/yashiro2013SolPhys.pdf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) https://www.solarham.net/ If you watch the 131 movie ( available on Solar Ham) you will likely see what I was hoping for earlier. The loops represent an enormous amount of current flow across a region or regions of opposite polarity. When this current flow is interrupted, there is naturally a flash. The reconnecting of the two ends or something more complex appears to be a precursor to a large event in at least two spectacular surface explosions I have viewed in stages on the solar soft website, where they sometimes show the event in stages along the top. Its pretty darn cool to watch. They may even have an archive, although I have never checked. I will post links to both on an edit shortly. https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/. This is the link I had difficulty inserting into the above text Edited January 30 by hamateur 1953 Link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Here's a very pretty example, complete with music. Haha. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Well @KW2P that was pretty cool! no explosions boo hoo. But seeing dripping plasma was pretty illuminating ( pun intended). As to whether any current flow was involved across that arc, my DC ammeter probably couldn’t cut it. I will leave that to the solar physicists. Mike. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: https://www.solarham.net/ If you watch the 131 movie ( available on Solar Ham) you will likely see what I was hoping for earlier. The loops represent an enormous amount of current flow across a region or regions of opposite polarity. When this current flow is interrupted, there is naturally a flash. The reconnecting of the two ends or something more complex appears to be a precursor to a large event in at least two spectacular surface explosions I have viewed in stages on the solar soft website, where they sometimes show the event in stages along the top. Its pretty darn cool to watch. They may even have an archive, although I have never checked. I will post links to both on an edit shortly. https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/. This is the link I had difficulty inserting into the above text Yep, I see exactly what you mean; those are indeed the sheared pre-flare arcades breaking as reconnection occurs, right before the flare. As far as I know the post-flare arcades will not do that though, although there might be exceptions I'm not aware of in very complex regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 hours ago, Philalethes said: Yep, I see exactly what you mean; those are indeed the sheared pre-flare arcades breaking as reconnection occurs, right before the flare. As far as I know the post-flare arcades will not do that though, although there might be exceptions I'm not aware of in very complex regions. My apologies for not explaining what I meant in time, and thank you for correcting my statement. I was wrong for over simplifying and in my haste I left out important aspects of flare dynamics that I should have summarized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It wound up just fine actually @MinYoongi clarified and @Philalethesexpanded on the subject then @KW2P posted that very cool NASA video, with music no less! And I certainly learned plenty all in all. No problems! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post arjemma Posted January 30 Popular Post Share Posted January 30 (edited) On 1/29/2024 at 7:46 PM, MinYoongi said: as far as i know thats not how post flare arcades work but not 100% sure You are correct. Post-eruption arcades forms after an eruption when the field lines are connecting again and the plasma that didn't lift off from the CME rains down to the corona again. I would suggest to study images from SDO AIA 193 if you want to see how these arcades look like. So see it as rain that follows the magnetic field back to the sun and not out in space. It doesn't necessarily mean that the plasma will lift off again when the arcade disappears. (This is a simplified explanation) EDIT: I saw that this was answered already here. I'm adding a gif that i posted in the Filament topic. It is a good visualization of how the arcades can look like after an eruption that resulted in a lot of plasma leaving the sun. Edited January 30 by arjemma 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 seems we ain't getting nothing again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 25 minutes ago, tniickck said: seems we ain't getting nothing again when the impact was to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 32 minutes ago, tniickck said: seems we ain't getting nothing again If it arrived right now it would be a pretty early arrival at this point (though SA doesn't look to have taken an impact yet). It could arrive at any time on the 31st UTC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The sun is just rising, so I wouldn't be able to see anything anyway. A later arrival disqualifies CME from reaching G2, without which I won't see anything anyway. I guess we have to wait until something happens in the sun again🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Yeah, the current IMF strength is so low that there might not be a decent IMF shock. It will pretty much be up to the velocities and luck with the Bz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 4 hours ago, tniickck said: seems we ain't getting nothing again Yeah, well things are certain to improve soon. Take heart guy. I have it on pretty good authority that some better stuff is in store soon regardless. Imo we have two more fun-filled years of action yet, probably three. Haha. We are in a lull right now but most predictions are looking better for February 2024. Edited January 31 by hamateur 1953 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 There could have been a possible shock arrival just past 06:30Z, but it would of been a very weak arrival in the HSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manu Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 About the post flare loops : spaceweather.com has published this beautiful shot https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=203472 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Hmm, SA might have had a shock arrival around the time we started receiving data again. A shock arrival may be possible in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: Hmm, SA might have had a shock arrival around the time we started receiving data again. A shock arrival may be possible in the coming hours. only shock or some more material? Do you think the KP will move a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: only shock or some more material? Do you think the KP will move a bit? The shock. At this point I'm not even sure if G1 is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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