tniickck Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 well i guess no strong storm is possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) i saw the 10:00 UTC noaa enlil and it looks like a miss to me. but i think its made with stereo-a since lasco did not backfill. maybe another run will be made " Preliminary analysis suggests the bulk of the CME will pass well ahead of Earth, however a shock enhancement can not be ruled out as of yet. Further analysis is in progress." < Noa swpc Edited January 29 by MinYoongi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Bummer @tniickck. Hey you guys look at 131 now. That monster thing looks more like a filament than a loop to me. What does everyone else think here? 43 minutes ago, tniickck said: well i guess no strong storm is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Bummer @tniickck. Hey you guys look at 131 now. That monster thing looks more like a filament than a loop to me. What does everyone else think here? Where exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Bummer @tniickck. Hey you guys look at 131 now. That monster thing looks more like a filament than a loop to me. What does everyone else think here? yeah i see. these coronal loops are really bright especially if you know that the flare occured 8 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) On the west limb just hanging there. Or it was last time I looked, it was directly above 3559 Edited January 29 by hamateur 1953 Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Theyre called post flare arcades as far as i know. pretty sight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) Ok. Never have seen anything quite like it. It seemed a bit asymmetrical which could be simply due to an oblique view, I suppose … tnx. @MinYoongi. Low energy protons about to hit S2 the higher ones slowly declining. This will probably go on for awhile, id imagine. Maybe that big loop will break and reconnect soon as it appears to be growing in height to me. Edited January 29 by hamateur 1953 Protons and maybe another cme soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (Well, copy and paste) The CME is on our side of the solar disk by about 10 degrees. The CME is directed at STEREO A. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an Earth-directed component. Once we get coronagraph imagery, the question would be if a part coming would be too slow to arrive. I wouldn't expect much from any impact though. ********* So far I'm thinking the CME may take around 66 hours to travel to SA. I'm wondering if the CH HSS may be too strong for an arrival there. ********* Oh, so the coronagraph imagery on the SWPC's site just isn't updating. Here's the CME from SOHO, *********** Actually being able to view things better with SOHO's imagery, I'm actually coming to an L1 arrival mid-day to late on the 31st. Though I don't know how well my method handles CMEs near the limb. ******** Oh, duh. I had a miscalculation with SA and that landed near 48 hours travel time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: Bummer @tniickck. Hey you guys look at 131 now. That monster thing looks more like a filament than a loop to me. What does everyone else think here? Don't Filaments appear darker on 131 or do I confuse it with something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, Adohran said: Don't Filaments appear darker on 131 or do I confuse it with something else? You are very likely correct. It didn’t really look like a complete loop from the angle I was viewing it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Adohran said: Don't Filaments appear darker on 131 or do I confuse it with something else? They are definitely post arcade loops. I don't think Prominences are visible in 131 but Filaments are nearly black when viewed against the disk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yep @MinYoongianswered this to my satisfaction earlier in this thread. They are much clearer in 193 angstrom pix this am. With any luck one on those loops will break, reconnect and another cme will launch, hopefully much more mass, enough to hit us at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Would give quite a view if they would directly hit us! 33 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Yep @MinYoongianswered this to my satisfaction earlier in this thread. They are much clearer in 193 angstrom pix this am. With any luck one on those loops will break, reconnect and another cme will launch, hopefully much more mass, enough to hit us at least! They definitely look as if they are expanding in 193. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 it seems that we are getting S2 storm, the third for this solar cycle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) S2 storm levels now reached. 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: Yep @MinYoongianswered this to my satisfaction earlier in this thread. They are much clearer in 193 angstrom pix this am. With any luck one on those loops will break, reconnect and another cme will launch, hopefully much more mass, enough to hit us at least! I see a lot of activity happening on the sunspot so hopefully. Edited January 29 by SpaceWeather5464 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Latest 17:44 ut 131 shows one of those loops lifting. Keep your fingers crossed. 🤣🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Anything related to this explosion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: Anything related to this explosion? no lol just goes having a spasm for bakeout etc (happens very often) 33 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Latest 17:44 ut 131 shows one of those loops lifting. Keep your fingers crossed. 🤣🤣 58 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: S2 storm levels now reached. I see a lot of activity happening on the sunspot so hopefully. isnt the sunspot almost rotated off the western limb now? what are you 2 seeing/hoping for? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: no lol just goes having a spasm for bakeout etc (happens very often) isnt the sunspot almost rotated off the western limb now? what are you 2 seeing/hoping for? Almost, yeah, but maybe the loops break free and produce a finale before rotating off the western limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 as far as i know thats not how post flare arcades work but not 100% sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'm taking my assumption that they do from @hamateur 1953. I'll guess we have to find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’m surprised that the post flare arcade is still here lol. They are usually gone within 3 to 5 hours after a flare this one refuses to die. 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: no lol just goes having a spasm for bakeout etc (happens very often) isnt the sunspot almost rotated off the western limb now? what are you 2 seeing/hoping for? Proton events they are interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: as far as i know thats not how post flare arcades work but not 100% sure 2 hours ago, Adohran said: Almost, yeah, but maybe the loops break free and produce a finale before rotating off the western limb. Post flare arcade loops are often identical to the pre-flare state. They won't "break" they same way but can release more than one CME alongside the usual X-ray emissions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 34 minutes ago, Parabolic said: Post flare arcade loops are often identical to the pre-flare state. They won't "break" they same way but can release more than one CME alongside the usual X-ray emissions. Always nice to learn something new. ^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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