Emerging Flux Theory

[hamateur 1953]

Heads up to @arjemma look above ifya haven’t yet.  🐈‍⬛

[dave]

So far, SC25 has been virtually a rerun of SC24 as regards intensity. Will there be a double peak, as there was in SC24?  

If Patrick would be so kind as to answer the question as a Yes or a No it would be helpful.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

34 minuten geleden, dave zei:

So far, SC25 has been virtually a rerun of SC24 as regards intensity. Will there be a double peak, as there was in SC24?  

If Patrick would be so kind as to answer the question as a Yes or a No it would be helpful.

The answer is in my post from January 2023. The polar fields switched close together… meaning no double peak. It’s that easy.

Unfortunately nobody understands this. Why? Well… decennia ago Leif Svalgaard made a crucial fault… and everybody took it over. It is omnipresent in a lot of articles. I can’t publish the fault! Why? Because the people who made it are the peer reviewers! 

(PDF) The Anti-Phase Solution for the Average Polar Magnetic Field


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367021425_The_Anti-Phase_Solution_for_the_Average_Polar_Magnetic_Field

Edited April 2 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

Not sure if he is predicting an extremely short solar cycle there. Given one of Patrick's SC25 predictions was that it will be weaker than SC24, who knows what the second peak will do.

[Archmonoth]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:18 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Your questions are the same like asking at Newton… can we place a rocket on Mars with your equations?

The answer is yes off course… but you need a lot off people and equations.

Same here. The basic theories are presented.  Start the calculations…

You can't get to mars with Newton's equations. The limits of Newton's ideas/formulas are for 2-body problems, not 3-body problems. 

 

You can get to Mars with Lagrange math, or the ITN: Interplanetary Transport Network - Wikipedia (Based on Lagrange formulas)

 

If you are ignoring internal dynamics, you are missing 1/2 the picture. (At least)

 

@Newbie You presentation and coherency of communication is clear, thank you for the orderly posts! 

Edited April 3 by Archmonoth

[Ester89]

2 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

@Newbie You presentation and coherency of communication is clear, thank you for the orderly posts! 

I join in this gratitude @Newbie

[Sam Warfel]

Please remember to keep this on topic to the theory described in Newbie's original post, and any other unproven theories should go in the unproven theories thread.

 

Thank you.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

15 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

Not sure if he is predicting an extremely short solar cycle there. Given one of Patrick's SC25 predictions was that it will be weaker than SC24, who knows what the second peak will do.

I already said I made a fault in the strength prediction because I wrote a wrong number in my excell file. This was corrected in peer review. And I stand by my earlier one that this will be a short cycle.

 Today's daily SFU reading of 112.7. The lowest reading since November 30th, 2022.

Edited April 3 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[arjemma]

On 4/2/2024 at 5:11 AM, Parabolic said:

Here's a good article about "magnetic caging" If you haven't seen it yet. I believe @Philalethes has read through it as well. 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aba6ef

 

On 4/2/2024 at 7:20 AM, hamateur 1953 said:

Heads up to @arjemma look above ifya haven’t yet.  🐈‍⬛

Thank you so much, both of you.. and Hagrid of course ❤️