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Emerging Flux Theory


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8 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Whoever said I was smart never has met half of the people on this forum.  At the very least.  Whew!  Mike/Hagrid. 

I completely agree haha. I love that I learn something new almost every time I visit this forum.

@Newbie Big thanks for the link to the article. I have been reading a bit about emerging flux theory myself but it was a while ago that I properly studied it. You just made me want to pick it up again.

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1 hour ago, arjemma said:

I completely agree haha. I love that I learn something new almost every time I visit this forum.

@Newbie Big thanks for the link to the article. I have been reading a bit about emerging flux theory myself but it was a while ago that I properly studied it. You just made me want to pick it up again.

You’re welcome @arjemma it’s such  a fascinating subject. This particular article has been cited many, many times in ongoing research.

There are still so many gaps in our  knowledge about the mechanisms driving flux transport and emergence evidenced by the number of models that have been put forward to describe observations.

N.

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  • 2 months later...

Bump.  On account of a thought posed by @Justanerd a few weeks ago having to do with the maddening tendencies of certain regions to not produce mass ejections. I believe he has a strong point in addition to magnetic caging being discussed by @Philalethes and @Parabolic In that possibly the deeper the twisting or whatever we cannot see on the surface isn’t sufficient. It’s a very deep article….  Haha. Mike. 

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Op 20/1/2024 om 00:48, Newbie zei:

You’re welcome @arjemma it’s such  a fascinating subject. This particular article has been cited many, many times in ongoing research.

There are still so many gaps in our  knowledge about the mechanisms driving flux transport and emergence evidenced by the number of models that have been put forward to describe observations.

N.

Of course, if you begin with the proposed model derived from the interior, it is challenging to explain certain phenomena. However, when considering my sunspot theory, everything falls into place, and the observations become more coherent and comprehensible.

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54 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Of course, if you begin with the proposed model derived from the interior, it is challenging to explain certain phenomena. However, when considering my sunspot theory, everything falls into place, and the observations become more coherent and comprehensible.

Yet you were unable to answer what seemed to me to be very sensible questions in the growth of cycle 25 by @3gMike and @Jesterface23  or chose not to because they might require deeper consideration? It just appears on the face of it to be at the very least inconsiderate or downright rude to me Patrick. And why he pulled your topic over to unproven theories where it still resides.  

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1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Of course, if you begin with the proposed model derived from the interior, it is challenging to explain certain phenomena. However, when considering my sunspot theory, everything falls into place, and the observations become more coherent and comprehensible.

@Patrick P.A. Geryl It's important to articulate the specifics of your sunspot theory to better understand its implications and assess its validity. Without a clear description of your theory, it's difficult to evaluate its explanatory power compared to established models. Providing detailed explanations and empirical evidence supporting your theory would strengthen its credibility and facilitate a more comprehensive discussion of sunspot phenomena.
Therefore I fail to see how this clarifies anything and just sends us round and round in circles.

N.

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48 minuten geleden, Newbie zei:

@Patrick P.A. Geryl It's important to articulate the specifics of your sunspot theory to better understand its implications and assess its validity. Without a clear description of your theory, it's difficult to evaluate its explanatory power compared to established models. Providing detailed explanations and empirical evidence supporting your theory would strengthen its credibility and facilitate a more comprehensive discussion of sunspot phenomena.
Therefore I fail to see how this clarifies anything and just sends us round and round in circles.

N.

I already gave the link in unproven theories. I am sure you can understand it. It’s not that difficult. At least 12 basic principles can be calculated. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Bump.  On account of a thought having to do with the maddening tendencies of certain regions to not produce mass ejections….In that possibly the deeper the twisting or whatever we cannot see on the surface isn’t sufficient. It’s a very deep article….  Haha. Mike. 

When strong magnetic fields emerge from the Sun's interior and rise to the surface they can create sunspots.
These sunspots act as localised areas of intense magnetic activity, where magnetic field lines become twisted and concentrated. As a result, the magnetic fields become stronger and more structured in these regions.

The plasma, which consists of charged particles like ions and electrons, interacts with these magnetic fields. The magnetic fields can confine and control the movement of the plasma within the sunspot region, creating a "cage-like" structure. This confinement affects various solar phenomena, including the inhibition of convective motion, the suppression of heat transport, and the modulation of energy release in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

When magnetic fields become tightly wound or caged, they can suppress the emergence of sunspots on the solar surface. This occurs because the magnetic field lines trap plasma beneath them, preventing it from rising to the surface and forming sunspots. 

Additionally, the confinement of magnetic fields within certain regions can lead to the suppression of magnetic instabilities that are necessary for the formation of sunspots and heightened sunspot activity.

N.

Edited by Newbie
Brevity
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Brevity?  Haha. Anyway this helps somewhat.  I was previously envisioning a mass of pool noodle like flux tubes finally emerging on the surface. Tnx Newbie.  Mike

4 hours ago, Newbie said:

When strong magnetic fields emerge from the Sun's interior and rise to the surface they can create sunspots.
These sunspots act as localised areas of intense magnetic activity, where magnetic field lines become twisted and concentrated. As a result, the magnetic fields become stronger and more structured in these regions.

The plasma, which consists of charged particles like ions and electrons, interacts with these magnetic fields. The magnetic fields can confine and control the movement of the plasma within the sunspot region, creating a "cage-like" structure. This confinement affects various solar phenomena, including the inhibition of convective motion, the suppression of heat transport, and the modulation of energy release in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

When magnetic fields become tightly wound or caged, they can suppress the emergence of sunspots on the solar surface. This occurs because the magnetic field lines trap plasma beneath them, preventing it from rising to the surface and forming sunspots. 

Additionally, the confinement of magnetic fields within certain regions can lead to the suppression of magnetic instabilities that are necessary for the formation of sunspots and heightened sunspot activity.

N.

 

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I already gave the link in unproven theories. I am sure you can understand it. It’s not that difficult. At least 12 basic principles can be calculated. 

But not explained in a coherent manner?    Newbie gave up waiting for a reply I suspect.  I would be surprised if Patrick answers any of the below questions she posed, meanwhile I’m gonna recheck SWPC latest regions.  My guess is we will have eight or more in the next week for another latitude check.  Looks as if he replied. Cool.  I am surprised a shame you didn’t show either @3gMikeor @Jesterface23the same courtesy but nonetheless This should be interesting.  The only thing I was curious about was  how anyone could have 100% certainty of solar maximum  and place the actual date with confidence. Hopefully Newbie asks that question! 😇 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Waiting on Newbie now.
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I already gave the link in unproven theories. I am sure you can understand it. It’s not that difficult. At least 12 basic principles can be calculated. 

@Patrick P.A. Geryl

Does your theory explain the following:

The Dynamics of Flux Transport:

Does your theory provide an explanation as to how magnetic flux moves and evolves across the solar surface? Does it explain Flux transport mechanisms, such as differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion?

Behaviour of Plasma Bound by Strong Magnetic Fields:                              

Does your theory describe the action of plasma bound by strong magnetic fields, including confinement, heating, and acceleration. Additionally does it describe the interaction between magnetic fields and plasma to determine the structure and stability of sunspot regions, affecting their ability to trap and confine plasma within a "cage-like" structure.

Dissipation of Thermal Energy:

The dissipation of thermal energy within sunspot regions and surrounding plasma is closely linked to magnetic caging. Strong magnetic fields can inhibit convective heat transport. How does your theory account for this?

Modulation of Energy Release by Solar Flares:                                              

Solar flares are explosive releases of magnetic energy that occur in regions of intense magnetic activity, such as sunspots. The confinement and structuring of magnetic fields within sunspots can modulate the energy release during flares, influencing their magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Can your theory provide an explanation for this?

Thanks in anticipation

N.

Edited by Newbie
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Does your theory provide an explanation as to how magnetic flux moves and evolves across the solar surface? Does it explain Flux transport mechanisms, such as differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion?
 

See my theory. They all can be calculated. Here is the problem. With the theory of Newton you can calculate a ton of other theories. Therefore you need a lot of people and computers. Here it is even more complicated. My theory combines Newtons gravitation theory with magnetic fields. So we need probably a few hundred people to calculate all the above things. Remember: 100,000 engineers worked at a certain moment for Microsoft. 

This is from the introduction. If you solve that, the rest follows…
First of all, a complete picture of the solar dynamo requires not only an understanding of how magnetic fields are generated and amplified in the solar interior, it also requires an understanding of the transport processes that bring magnetic fields to the solar atmosphere.

Here is the solution:
(PDF) A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields. A unifying algorithm that solves the Sun's differential rotation problem


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

conclusion: can it be done… yes.  But we need a lot of people…

Edited by Patrick P.A. Geryl
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1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:
3 hours ago, Newbie said:

Does your theory provide an explanation as to how magnetic flux moves and evolves across the solar surface? Does it explain Flux transport mechanisms, such as differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion?

See my theory. They all can be calculated. Here is the problem. With the theory of Newton you can calculate a ton of other theories. Therefore you need a lot of people and computers. Here it is even more complicated. My theory combines Newtons gravitation theory with magnetic fields. So we need probably a few hundred people to calculate all the above things. Remember: 100,000 engineers worked at a certain moment for Microsoft. 

This is from the introduction. If you solve that, the rest follows…
First of all, a complete picture of the solar dynamo requires not only an understanding of how magnetic fields are generated and amplified in the solar interior, it also requires an understanding of the transport processes that bring magnetic fields to the solar atmosphere.

Here is the solution:
(PDF) A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields. A unifying algorithm that solves the Sun's differential rotation problem


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

conclusion: can it be done… yes.  But we need a lot of people…

This part has been done completely before or you are taking a estimated guess based on what you currently know?

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1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

This part has been done completely before or you are taking a estimated guess based on what you currently know?

I would love to know why he believes thar the small sunspots and 10.7 somehow magically allow a simple math equation to place the date and amplitude with such amazing accuracy but also seems to need a university of individuals.  Doesn’t this sound like hyperbole to anyone else?  And what was the point of including the asteroids??  Dare I venture a guess here??   Vesta?? Ceres??  
I wish he would have stated clearly that he was trying to solve the riddle of solar cyclic behavior by factoring in gravitational interactions in the first place, if indeed this is what he is going for.  It’s pretty hard to discern from his dismissive remarks.  If true, I’m late to the party, obviously. Mike. 

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3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Does your theory provide an explanation as to how magnetic flux moves and evolves across the solar surface? Does it explain Flux transport mechanisms, such as differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion?
 

See my theory. They all can be calculated. Here is the problem. With the theory of Newton you can calculate a ton of other theories. Therefore you need a lot of people and computers. Here it is even more complicated. My theory combines Newtons gravitation theory with magnetic fields. So we need probably a few hundred people to calculate all the above things. Remember: 100,000 engineers worked at a certain moment for Microsoft. 

This is from the introduction. If you solve that, the rest follows…
First of all, a complete picture of the solar dynamo requires not only an understanding of how magnetic fields are generated and amplified in the solar interior, it also requires an understanding of the transport processes that bring magnetic fields to the solar atmosphere.

Here is the solution:
(PDF) A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields. A unifying algorithm that solves the Sun's differential rotation problem


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

conclusion: can it be done… yes.  But we need a lot of people…

@Patrick P.A. Geryl The answer provided does not address the questions posed about magnetic caging, flux transport dynamics, behaviour of plasma bound by strong magnetic fields, dissipation of thermal energy, and modulation of energy release by solar flares. Instead, it presents a mathematical and theoretical framework for understanding the Sun's magnetic fields, rotation, and their effects on interplanetary phenomena.

While the discussion on differential rotation, magnetic field dynamics, and interplanetary magnetic loops is interesting it doesn’t address the mechanisms involved in magnetic caging or how they relate to the dynamics of solar activity.
Your paper focuses more on mathematical calculations and theoretical propositions rather than providing detailed explanations for the phenomena in question.

To address the questions effectively, it would be beneficial to share observational evidence, theoretical models, and empirical data related to magnetic caging and its implications for solar activity. Additionally, addressing how the proposed theory accounts for the specific dynamics outlined in the questions would enhance its relevance to the topic, I believe!

N.

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I hadn’t read his latest pdf obviously Hmm. I just did a quick read of it. He isn’t the author.  A woman first name Judit.  Good luck. Mike    If she plays chess as well as Judit Polgar he has some excellent help aboard.  😇

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6 uren geleden, Newbie zei:

@Patrick P.A. Geryl The answer provided does not address the questions posed about magnetic caging, flux transport dynamics, behaviour of plasma bound by strong magnetic fields, dissipation of thermal energy, and modulation of energy release by solar flares. Instead, it presents a mathematical and theoretical framework for understanding the Sun's magnetic fields, rotation, and their effects on interplanetary phenomena.

While the discussion on differential rotation, magnetic field dynamics, and interplanetary magnetic loops is interesting it doesn’t address the mechanisms involved in magnetic caging or how they relate to the dynamics of solar activity.
Your paper focuses more on mathematical calculations and theoretical propositions rather than providing detailed explanations for the phenomena in question.

To address the questions effectively, it would be beneficial to share observational evidence, theoretical models, and empirical data related to magnetic caging and its implications for solar activity. Additionally, addressing how the proposed theory accounts for the specific dynamics outlined in the questions would enhance its relevance to the topic, I believe!

N.

Your questions are the same like asking at Newton… can we place a rocket on Mars with your equations?

The answer is yes off course… but you need a lot off people and equations.

Same here. The basic theories are presented.  Start the calculations…

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19 minuten geleden, Kayla Bisson zei:

Why does everyone else have to do the calculations if you already have all the answers? We're all busy waiting for you to prove your theory and predict just a few sunspots ahead of time after you boasted on another post how easily you could have predicted it after the fact. Show us your science in action.

If you honestly think everyone is as dumb as the condescending tone in which you reply to people implies, obviously none of us are at all qualified to follow such basic theories. Please dumb it down for us and use little words that aren't copy and pasted from who knows where to help us try to understand. 

No one wants you to be wrong, we all want the answers to the world but its not ok to come on every single post talking down to people pushing your still unproven theories. If you're right and we're all wrong feel free to stick it to us in your Nobel acceptance speech but in the off chance you might possibly be wrong selling all these theories to Dan Brown might prove profitable.

You didn't read the link in unproven theories... There you can find a new sunspot prediction.

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M

3 hours ago, Kayla Bisson said:

Why does everyone else have to do the calculations if you already have all the answers? We're all busy waiting for you to prove your theory and predict just a few sunspots ahead of time after you boasted on another post how easily you could have predicted it after the fact. Show us your science in action.

If you honestly think everyone is as dumb as the condescending tone in which you reply to people implies, obviously none of us are at all qualified to follow such basic theories. Please dumb it down for us and use little words that aren't copy and pasted from who knows where to help us try to understand. 

No one wants you to be wrong, we all want the answers to the world but its not ok to come on every single post talking down to people pushing your still unproven theories. If you're right and we're all wrong feel free to stick it to us in your Nobel acceptance speech but in the off chance you might possibly be wrong selling all these theories to Dan Brown might prove profitable.

Mikey and Hagrid give @Kayla Bissona virtual hug!   

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On 3/31/2024 at 5:48 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

You didn't read the link in unproven theories... There you can find a new sunspot prediction.

There is nothing stopping you from posting that link here as well so it will be easier for people to find the source you are referring to. Just a friendly suggestion.

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28 minutes ago, arjemma said:

There is nothing stopping you from posting that link here as well so it will be easier for people to find the source you are referring to. Just a friendly suggestion.

@arjemma I believe he did post the link a few posts ago.

I totally agree with everyone’s sentiment though! Why should we have to do the calculations as @Kayla Bisson said!

Patrick’s theory belongs in UPT, IMHO and should stay there.

On 3/31/2024 at 1:18 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Your questions are the same like asking at Newton… can we place a rocket on Mars with your equations?

The answer is yes off course… but you need a lot off people and equations.

Same here. The basic theories are presented.  Start the calculations…

@Patrick P.A. Geryl Groan!! 

N.

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19 minutes ago, Newbie said:

@arjemma I believe he did post the link a few posts ago.

I totally agree with everyone’s sentiment though! Why should we have to do the calculations as @Kayla Bisson said!

Patrick’s theory belongs in UPT, IMHO and should stay there.

@Patrick P.A. Geryl Groan!! 

N.

Oh I probably missed it then, thank you!
Yes you are right that his theory belongs in the UPT forum.

From what I can tell the papers are behind a paywall which makes it very hard for us to do the calculations. I get that this might have to do with rights/ownership and money but I think that posting the equations and math can help everyone understand the theory. We shouldn't be the ones doing the calculations, that should be done with those creating the theory in the beginning to show how it's done in a correct way.

@Patrick P.A. Geryl can you calculate when the next big sunspot region will be in the earth directed zone and how it will behave (for example strongest flare possibility, magnetic configuration like delta spots and so on)? It would be nice to have a prediction that you have calculated and posted here so we can see how the theory works in real time. Are you up for it? Please post it in the UPT forum in that case.

Hiding a theory behind a paywall and then assume that everyone else will understand the theory, be able to do the calculations, create accurate predictions and so on will not work. It's so nonchalant of you when you are basically calling everyone dumb/stupid who doesn't understand it.

@Newbie I hadn't heard the "magnetic caging" concept before so I'm for sure gonna research that tomorrow. I have probably stumble upon it but I haven't given it enough attention to understand it. Thanks for giving me something new to research. I will be back with thoughts later on.

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2 hours ago, arjemma said:

Oh I probably missed it then, thank you!
Yes you are right that his theory belongs in the UPT forum.

From what I can tell the papers are behind a paywall which makes it very hard for us to do the calculations. I get that this might have to do with rights/ownership and money but I think that posting the equations and math can help everyone understand the theory. We shouldn't be the ones doing the calculations, that should be done with those creating the theory in the beginning to show how it's done in a correct way.

@Patrick P.A. Geryl can you calculate when the next big sunspot region will be in the earth directed zone and how it will behave (for example strongest flare possibility, magnetic configuration like delta spots and so on)? It would be nice to have a prediction that you have calculated and posted here so we can see how the theory works in real time. Are you up for it? Please post it in the UPT forum in that case.

Hiding a theory behind a paywall and then assume that everyone else will understand the theory, be able to do the calculations, create accurate predictions and so on will not work. It's so nonchalant of you when you are basically calling everyone dumb/stupid who doesn't understand it.

@Newbie I hadn't heard the "magnetic caging" concept before so I'm for sure gonna research that tomorrow. I have probably stumble upon it but I haven't given it enough attention to understand it. Thanks for giving me something new to research. I will be back with thoughts later on.

You’re welcome @arjemma. I look forward to hearing your thoughts later on 😊

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3 hours ago, arjemma said:

Oh I probably missed it then, thank you!
Yes you are right that his theory belongs in the UPT forum.

From what I can tell the papers are behind a paywall which makes it very hard for us to do the calculations. I get that this might have to do with rights/ownership and money but I think that posting the equations and math can help everyone understand the theory. We shouldn't be the ones doing the calculations, that should be done with those creating the theory in the beginning to show how it's done in a correct way.

@Patrick P.A. Geryl can you calculate when the next big sunspot region will be in the earth directed zone and how it will behave (for example strongest flare possibility, magnetic configuration like delta spots and so on)? It would be nice to have a prediction that you have calculated and posted here so we can see how the theory works in real time. Are you up for it? Please post it in the UPT forum in that case.

Hiding a theory behind a paywall and then assume that everyone else will understand the theory, be able to do the calculations, create accurate predictions and so on will not work. It's so nonchalant of you when you are basically calling everyone dumb/stupid who doesn't understand it.

@Newbie I hadn't heard the "magnetic caging" concept before so I'm for sure gonna research that tomorrow. I have probably stumble upon it but I haven't given it enough attention to understand it. Thanks for giving me something new to research. I will be back with thoughts later on.

Here's a good article about "magnetic caging" If you haven't seen it yet. I believe @Philalethes has read through it as well. 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aba6ef

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