Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum

[hamateur 1953]

Does the average sunspot latitude matter?    What about “ The rush to the poles? “.  Are these significant indicators? Or should we dismiss them entirely as no longer relevant?  These questions seem relevant to me anyway.  Edit: I intended to post this in the “ other” portion.  Ok to move it. Edit again. After much reflection on this topic, since I have already calculated cycles 23 and 24 maximum sunspot latitudes earlier at 11.5 and 12 degrees respectively. The only thing I might possibly have overlooked was which hump of 23 was the max. And probably BOTH should be calculated of course.  I assumed the second but the first should be significantly higher in sunspot latitudes.  We shall see.  

Edited December 31, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Wrong area. And possible revisions

[hamateur 1953]

Since I haven’t received a response yet, I presume others are busy for the coming National Holiday.  I have left out an explanation that I think should be illustrated here to clarify exactly why the two items above are actually related.   At Solar Max recently I have read that the lower latitude sunspots annihilate each other typically at the equator.  Leaving essentially an “orphaned” spot, which is then conveyed to its respective pole.  If I am mistaken in my understanding of this process I’d  appreciate a clarification.   Happy New Year all.  Mike. 

[tniickck]

12 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Does the average sunspot latitude matter?  

since the butterfly diagram shows the approaching to the equator as the solar maximum occurs, yes

[hamateur 1953]

Thanks for that @tniickck outta likes haha. Later, Mike/Hagrid 

[hamateur 1953]

Around Jan 10-15 2024 I am hoping we have approximately 10-12 ARs on the board again for a latitude check as we ascend towards solar maximum. I differ a bit on what I expect for solar flux as reported by NRC Penticton.  The 27 day projected max is around 160 high by USAF etc.  ( was 180 last week). I’d hoped for 190-200.  The last two rises were nearly identical around 195 peaks.  It is fun watching SC 25s evolution.  There are probably more people involved in this than ever before!  Edit: @3gMike and me were discussing the southern polar field in early Dec 2023,  and this is another important consideration of where we might be with respect to the pole reversal that takes place during solar maximum. 
The sunspot latitude observation RE: solar max dates  back to the early 20th century, if I am not mistaken.  10.7 monitoring began after the second world war, I am pretty sure and is a very good indicator of overall cycle strength naturally.  

Edited January 3 by hamateur 1953

[Newbie]

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

The sunspot latitude observation RE: solar max dates  back to the early 20th century, if I am not mistaken.  10.7 monitoring began after the second world war, I am pretty sure and is a very good indicator of overall cycle strength naturally.  

10.7 cm emissions observed in solar radio flux measurements primarily originate from the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona. 

These 10.7 cm radio emissions are associated with a certain type of thermal radiation that occurs when charged particles, such as electrons and protons, are scattered by the charged particles in the hot corona. As these particles interact, they emit radio waves, and the 10.7 cm wavelength is one of the characteristic frequencies at which this emission occurs.

The intensity of the 10.7 cm emission is influenced by solar activity, such as sunspots, solar flares, and other phenomena. The measurement of 10.7 cm solar radio flux serves as a proxy to monitor changes in the Sun's activity over time. Such variations in the 10.7 cm flux are indicative of the Sun's magnetic activity.

Scientists chose 10.7 cm for solar radio flux due to atmospheric transparency, (the Earth’s atmosphere is relatively transparent to radio waves in the microwave range, and particularly at the 10.7 cm wavelength), low interference, (the 10.7cm wavelength is less affected by terrestrial radio frequency interference; this reduces the potential for contamination of solar radio flux measurements by human-made signals, making it easier to isolate and study the natural solar emissions), and historical correlation with solar activity as it has been used continuously since the 1950’s. It allows practical ground-based observations, aiding long-term space weather prediction and ionospheric study.

N.

Edited January 3 by Newbie

[hamateur 1953]

Btw not coincidentally as microwaves had been discovered as being ideal for use during warfare and the Germans were among the best in the construction of radar dishes, these “ Wurzburg and Wurzburg Riese” ( large Wurzburg) antennas were appropriated and relocated to several countries for radio astronomy I think that perhaps even NRC had one at one time.  Off topic, but cool. Haha. 

5 hours ago, Newbie said:

10.7 cm emissions observed in solar radio flux measurements primarily originate from the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona. 

These 10.7 cm radio emissions are associated with a certain type of thermal radiation that occurs when charged particles, such as electrons and protons, are scattered by the charged particles in the hot corona. As these particles interact, they emit radio waves, and the 10.7 cm wavelength is one of the characteristic frequencies at which this emission occurs.

The intensity of the 10.7 cm emission is influenced by solar activity, such as sunspots, solar flares, and other phenomena. The measurement of 10.7 cm solar radio flux serves as a proxy to monitor changes in the Sun's activity over time. Such variations in the 10.7 cm flux are indicative of the Sun's magnetic activity.

Scientists chose 10.7 cm for solar radio flux due to atmospheric transparency, (the Earth’s atmosphere is relatively transparent to radio waves in the microwave range, and particularly at the 10.7 cm wavelength), low interference, (the 10.7cm wavelength is less affected by terrestrial radio frequency interference; this reduces the potential for contamination of solar radio flux measurements by human-made signals, making it easier to isolate and study the natural solar emissions), and historical correlation with solar activity as it has been used continuously since the 1950’s. It allows practical ground-based observations, aiding long-term space weather prediction and ionospheric study.

N.

 

Edited January 3 by hamateur 1953

[Newbie]

4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Btw not coincidentally as microwaves had been discovered as being ideal for use during warfare and the Germans were among the best in the construction of radar dishes, these “ Wurzburg and Wurzburg Riese” ( large Wurzburg) antennas were appropriated and relocated to several countries for radio astronomy I think that perhaps even NRC had one at one time.  Off topic, but cool. Haha. 

 

The measurement of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux evolved as a standard observational parameter in solar physics.

The National Research Council of Canada played a significant role in establishing the 10.7 cm solar flux as a standard measurement. In the early 1950s, scientists at the Alouette-ISIS satellite program, led by John Chapman and J.R. Carson.

Perhaps Canada was one of those countries where the antenna was relocated!

N.

[hamateur 1953]

http://www.solen.info/solar/   Jan Alvestad has updated as he’d promised last December with the note that polar fields have crossed.  And he is expecting the next maximum ( if any) to occur no earlier than May.   @Patrick P.A. Geryl had mentioned that Jan had posted a link on solen to Patricks web site, however I was unable to find any mention of this by Jan.  Anyway Jan’s summary at the bottom is well worth a read.  Hopefully Patrick will read this, and screenshot the section he was referring to in the New Nasa Prediction thread last week.  

Edited January 4 by hamateur 1953

[arjemma]

I'm adding what Jan said here for reference:

Quote

The relatively low solar activity during the last months of 2023 significantly increased the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked. Whether the first peak in June 2023 will be the actual solar max will not be known for some time. Due to the relatively high solar activity early in 2023 it is unlikely there will be another solar max candidate, if at all, until at least May 2024. Both the northern and southern polar fields, as well as the averaged total field, have already reversed polarities.

It's at the bottom of the page as @hamateur 1953 says. Interesting that he says that both polarities have reversed already. I'm not sure of this one so I won't comment on that. We will know in a few years if he was right. Always interesting to have several predictions and then to see who was right.

[Jay-B]

Here is a picture of the sunspots and how they have progressed this cycle so far!

 

 

 

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Jay-B said:

Here is a picture of the sunspots and how they have progressed this cycle so far!

 

 

 

That is a nice way of presenting the data. In particular it emphasises the greater latitudinal spread in the northern hemisphere during 2023. Also demonstrates the shift toward the equator quite well.

[hamateur 1953]

On 1/4/2024 at 1:12 PM, arjemma said:

I'm adding what Jan said here for reference:

It's at the bottom of the page as @hamateur 1953 says. Interesting that he says that both polarities have reversed already. I'm not sure of this one so I won't comment on that. We will know in a few years if he was right. Always interesting to have several predictions and then to see who was right.

I am not sure about ANYTHING at this point!  @arjemma but that doesn’t make our observations any less interesting 😂😂 Mike/Hagrid.  And thanks to @Jay-B and also @3gMike for weighing in here.  

[arjemma]

16 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I am not sure about ANYTHING at this point!  @arjemma but that doesn’t make our observations any less interesting 😂😂 Mike/Hagrid.  And thanks to @Jay-B and also @3gMike for weighing in here.  

Haha I'm happy to hear that I'm not the only one confused about this 😂

There is a interesting twist in some of the AR's that have appeared recently. The leading and trailing sunspots aren't as clear anymore in the newest active regions which might be a sign that we are getting closer to maximum now.

[hamateur 1953]

4 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Haha I'm happy to hear that I'm not the only one confused about this 😂

There is a interesting twist in some of the AR's that have appeared recently. The leading and trailing sunspots aren't as clear anymore in the newest active regions which might be a sign that we are getting closer to maximum now.

Agreed and although the doomsayers among us will probably stamp their feet and possibly even say UNFAIR!  Most of us patient people still await Solar Max.   

[tniickck]

5 hours ago, Jay-B said:

Here is a picture of the sunspots and how they have progressed this cycle so far!

 

 

 

Is it possible that there will be two peaks for each hemisphere in this cycle? cuz southern sunspots seem to be a lot closer to equator than the northern ones

[hamateur 1953]

10 minutes ago, tniickck said:

Is it possible that there will be two peaks for each hemisphere in this cycle? cuz southern sunspots seem to be a lot closer to equator than the northern ones

Very possible.  And I have noticed this different latitude state when doing averages @tniickck Although the SH appears to me to be less populated with active regions for the last six months, the region average latitudes are typically also  lower.  What does it mean?? Heck if I know!  Maybe someone else is willing to pose an idea that makes sense in context. 

Edited January 5 by hamateur 1953
,,,,, commas

[hamateur 1953]

Latitudes as of January 6 2024
Northern Hemisphere avg 15 degrees 

Southern Hemisphere avg 18 degrees 

Note: I decided to check while I could as we finally have eight ARs on the board.  If a few more show up soon, I will revise this, assuming it makes a significant difference  in the overall average.  Interesting note. These SH spots are higher than Id have expected ( zero to fifteen.  Avg latitude is therefore 16.6 degrees above equator currently.  Update:   Jan 9 supplied us with three new ARs to better average things.  Presently we are at 15.3 avg with about 40% of ss being under ten degrees.  Avg still well above 13 degrees.  

Edited January 10 by hamateur 1953
Update

[Newbie]

On 12/31/2023 at 1:06 PM, hamateur 1953 said:

Does the average sunspot latitude matter?    What about “ The rush to the poles? “.  Are these significant indicators? Or should we dismiss them entirely as no longer relevant?  These questions seem relevant to me anyway.  Edit: I intended to post this in the “ other” portion.  Ok to move it. Edit again. After much reflection on this topic, since I have already calculated cycles 23 and 24 maximum sunspot latitudes earlier at 11.5 and 12 degrees respectively. The only thing I might possibly have overlooked was which hump of 23 was the max. And probably BOTH should be calculated of course.  I assumed the second but the first should be significantly higher in sunspot latitudes.  We shall see.  

There are a number of features that herald the arrival of Solar Maximum. It has been well documented that as Solar Max is approached, sunspots appear closer to the Suns equator. 
The diagram above (Jay B) which was posted on Space Weather.com is a great graphic of this fact showing the appearance of sunspots for the last few years.

Raw and smoothed sunspot number and solar flux index are also indicators of the approaching Solar Max. Nothing new here.

In answer to this question posed here I believe all of these metrics contribute to our understanding of peak solar activity. So yes they do matter imho!

There was a study completed by Scott McIntosh et al.

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: 140 Years of the ‘Extended Solar Cycle’ – Mapping the Hale Cycle

https://rdcu.be/dvhaY

A quote from the study:

“These terminators mark the transition from one sunspot cycle into the next while also marking the end of a magnetic activity cycle. As such, they are not just arbitrary times, like a sunspot/solar minimum or (total) sunspot/solar maximum, in the phasing of solar activity – sunspot minimum is a time when four oppositely polarized magnetic bands surround the equator and negate (partially cancel) one another “”while sunspot maximum is a time when flux emergence begins to be throttled back by the introduction of additional magnetized bands present per hemisphere””. In what follows, we will use the start/end nature of the terminators as a new *fiducial clock to explore solar activity”….

It is an exhaustive compilation of information and the whole pdf is well worth a read if you are interested in the detail.

N.

*Fiducial means used as a standard of reference for measurement or calculation.

 

 

Edited January 6 by Newbie
Definition

[hamateur 1953]

Yes @Newbie new avatar!  Haha. Anyway see y’all after I digest Scott’s pdf, hopefully in a week or two.  The reaction demon ( like button) has throttled me yet again. Catchya on the fiip side N.  Mike/Hagrid. 

[hamateur 1953]

February 1 2024  In eight active regions current average latitude has dropped to 11.6.   I’ve read elsewhere that typically Solar Maximum should arrive within the next six months once this measured latitude is consistent for 30 days or so.  We will see if our measurements verify or contradict this.   Fun, easy thing to check while waiting for the really big stuff. X-20 and CME ‘s.  Haha. 

[arjemma]

On 2/1/2024 at 10:57 AM, hamateur 1953 said:

February 1 2024  In eight active regions current average latitude has dropped to 11.6.   I’ve read elsewhere that typically Solar Maximum should arrive within the next six months once this measured latitude is consistent for 30 days or so.  We will see if our measurements verify or contradict this.   Fun, easy thing to check while waiting for the really big stuff. X-20 and CME ‘s.  Haha. 

Thank you!
I have also seen papers that it usually is a good measurement for when solar maximum is about to arrive. Will be very exciting to see what happens next. 

[Drax Spacex]

More sunspots near the equator do appear to signal nearness to solar maximim.

It may also be possible to use the shape of the butterfly diagram to glean some estimate of the date of solar maximum.  Here I've mirrored and overlayed the butterfly diagram, merging and combining north and south hemispheres.  Drawing a line along the lower trailing edge to the X intercept plus some "slop", or where the data starts to level out, may yield another way to estimate the date of solar maximim.

https://ibb.co/2qTmRLj

[arjemma]

7 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

More sunspots near the equator do appear to signal nearness to solar maximim.

It may also be possible to use the shape of the butterfly diagram to glean some estimate of the date of solar maximum.  Here I've mirrored and overlayed the butterfly diagram, merging and combining north and south hemispheres.  Drawing a line along the lower trailing edge to the X intercept plus some "slop", or where the data starts to level out, may yield another way to estimate the date of solar maximim.

https://ibb.co/2qTmRLj

Smart, thanks for sharing!
I would say that we are rather near solar maximum now. I think it will happen within 6 months from now (+/- X months, it's impossible to tell). I do hope we will get some good action on the way down to minimum, that happens rather often.

[hamateur 1953]

I thought I would take a few minutes to calculate again the average latitudes currently visible. Feb 10 2023.   In nine active regions the average is 14.44.  Of note there are two regions unlisted that I have included due to the fact solar soft has them listed as active although yet unnumbered.  They are also visible on our HMI.    This correlates nicely with STCE predictions, as we crossed their 16 degree figure they are using last summer.  Southern Hemisphere is definitely more active currently and Northern is still in the game from the looks of the eastern limb presently.