Regions 3490/3492/3495/3497 Cluster

[Jesterface23]

Spots are still moving around, but the circled area seemed to be one of the small complex areas so far from what can be made out.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Jesterface23

[hamateur 1953]

Hoping it develops more confusion and hangs on until center disk before its next blast of X class character we hope.  😅

[tniickck]

there is a delta. small, but still

[hamateur 1953]

Ok. Would certainly account for activity alright.  It seems SWPC has also classified 3489 as Beta Delta. 

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, tniickck said:

there is a delta. small, but still

I think that little area would be the negative polarity spots if they stay. The larger spot above it would be positive polarity.

With it so close to the limb, polarities close to each other east to west are harder to see. North to south are easier, but still not the best.

[hamateur 1953]

Boy, I sure feel for the guy who had to do the synoptic diagram on this agglomeration!   Haha. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Typo

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Boy, I sure feel for the guy who had to do the synoptic diagram on this agglomeration!   Haha. 

I looked further, they were waiting to see if they needed to split it up. So 3490 was pretty much split into regions 3490 and 3492, then that synoptic map was updated 25 minutes later (at least by the dates in the FTP) adding 3495 and 3497.

[MinYoongi]

As of 13:00Z im not sure about deltas or complexity. but for archiving here are pictures : 

 

[NEAurora]

I guess now we get to play “sunspot roulette”

does this cluster:

a) wander menacingly, but otherwise silently across the disk before exploding on the limb?

b) decay rapidly once it nears center disk?

c) launch a handful of Earth directed impulsive, but non eruptive M1.x flares before calming down?

d) release a monster CME right at Earth that coincides exactly with the onset of widespread prolonged overcast conditions?

I’d put even odds for each of the above answers, but at least it’s something to get excited about that isn’t a filament!

[hamateur 1953]

5 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

I guess now we get to play “sunspot roulette”

does this cluster:

a) wander menacingly, but otherwise silently across the disk before exploding on the limb?

b) decay rapidly once it nears center disk?

c) launch a handful of Earth directed impulsive, but non eruptive M1.x flares before calming down?

d) release a monster CME right at Earth that coincides exactly with the onset of widespread prolonged overcast conditions?

I’d put even odds for each of the above answers, but at least it’s something to get excited about that isn’t a filament!

Well composed questionnaire! Wander menacingly   Love that!!  
Gee whiz you forgot to include a strong positive Bz with the CME launch, but earthwide overcast conditions should handle that too! 

Edited November 21, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Philalethes]

19 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

I guess now we get to play “sunspot roulette”

does this cluster:

a) wander menacingly, but otherwise silently across the disk before exploding on the limb?

b) decay rapidly once it nears center disk?

c) launch a handful of Earth directed impulsive, but non eruptive M1.x flares before calming down?

d) release a monster CME right at Earth that coincides exactly with the onset of widespread prolonged overcast conditions?

I’d put even odds for each of the above answers, but at least it’s something to get excited about that isn’t a filament!

I still suspect what we're looking at is a remnant of what was probably more active on the other side, and possibly associated with a large farside eruption not too long ago. That doesn't mean it's necessarily done, but there doesn't seem to be that much activity there now, although it does provide elevated flux and some smaller flaring.

[NEAurora]

26 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Well composed questionnaire! Wander menacingly   Love that!!  
Gee whiz you forgot to include a strong positive Bz with the CME launch, but earthwide overcast conditions should handle that too! 

Ahh yes, I definitely forgot the classic: 

e) 36 hours of bz=+40nT.

[hamateur 1953]

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I still suspect what we're looking at is a remnant of what was probably more active on the other side, and possibly associated with a large farside eruption not too long ago. That doesn't mean it's necessarily done, but there doesn't seem to be that much activity there now, although it does provide elevated flux and some smaller flaring.

Yes indeed it does. Today NRC will probably post 170 in an hour or so.  On the other AR thing evidently a huge shock was recorded as you may already have heard about.  I read about it on SW.C while looking to see if they had updated their TCI yet.   This would probably validate your theory on a large disruption having taken place earlier this week @Philalethes  more fun in store we hope!  

[Jesterface23]

Nothing is super complex, but almost everything in the area is changing or moving

[hamateur 1953]

One of the strangest car wrecks I have seen to date.  The rough latitudes stretch from 27 N to about 13 N or so presently All are still well above the equatorial area considered to denote solar maximum   

 

[SpaceWeather5464]

It looks like it has grown a bit in the past 24 hours.

[Jesterface23]

If it keeps on going lol, Region 3497 has merged with 3490. Maybe another region has formed on the southeast side of this cluster or it could be apart of 3492.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Jesterface23

[hamateur 1953]

Really crazy too. Swpc may need hourly synoptic updates soon.  Regions keep popping up too. 

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

If it keeps on going lol, Region 3497 has merged with 3490. Maybe another region has formed on the southeast side of this cluster or it could be apart of 3492.

I think @Vancanneyt Sander once pointed out that regions cant merge or something, im not 100% sure, which one is which ? can you maybe show me in a picture what you mean? i've been watching the region (mainly 3945) for a few hours and i didnt see so much change? did i miss something?

 

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Really crazy too. Swpc may need hourly synoptic updates soon.  Regions keep popping up too. 

 

https://gyazo.com/c435e294930a476a299ae15c92e06192  

 

for everyone interested, this is a loop of its growth played back and forth from 12:30Z 22/Nov/ to right now so basically the last 12-14 hours or so.i dont see the merging but with so many regions i might just miss something or mixed them up

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I think @Vancanneyt Sander once pointed out that regions cant merge or something, im not 100% sure, which one is which ? can you maybe show me in a picture what you mean? i've been watching the region (mainly 3945) for a few hours and i didnt see so much change? did i miss something?

This mass all started out being labeled as region 3490 when it came around the limb, so it is complicated

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

This mass all started out being labeled as region 3490 when it came around the limb, so it is complicated

thanks alot, jester. this makes it a bit less confusing. 

but it hasnt changed that much i think in 24 hours, what do you guys think? @Jesterface23

  maybe interesting  

 

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

but it hasnt changed that much i think in 24 hours, what do you guys think?

Over the past 36 hours there has been at least 2 areas of interest. Nothing still seems super complex, but the area doesn't seem to be dead yet.

[Jesterface23]

Region 3497 is now its own region again heh. The cluster seems to be fading some, but there is minor flaring with magnetic loops connecting almost all of the regions together.

[hamateur 1953]

I watched the most recent update yesterday from Tamitha Skov.  Yep! 
also she sees still more incoming regions. Excellent. And expects 200 SFI by Saturday in the states here.  
And also these are well above equatorial region as several have noted including myself. This surge may be brief but nice, and most certainly unexpected.  

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Region 3497 is now its own region again heh. The cluster seems to be fading some, but there is minor flaring with magnetic loops connecting almost all of the regions together.

 

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

And also these are well above equatorial region as several have noted including myself.

Yep, and the average polarity of the 60°+ and 70°+ caps are yet to flip too, with the latter one actually moving apart somewhat lately. Yet more evidence that the real fireworks are yet to come in my view; hopefully that's not just wishful thinking.