AR 13435

[Jesterface23]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

is it a faint CME or a bigger one? bulk impact? 

Well, it's bright on one side and faint on the other. The M1 flare CME. I'd guess the eastern side went through a HSS to make it faint. I am going with a bulk impact.

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Well, it's bright on one side and faint on the other. The M1 flare CME. I'd guess the eastern side went through a HSS to make it faint. I am going with a bulk impact.

Yeah, i mean the M1 flare. Why do you think G3 is possible? Sorry for the many questions. there are no runs or anything from noaa,nasa, twitter or someone  So youre my only source! Lol 

[Jesterface23]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Why do you think G3 is possible?

It is a rough estimation with the travel time and where we may be impacted. It would be fairly similar to the filament eruption as well, a little over 2 days of travel and it reached G3.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

It would be fairly similar to the filament eruption as well, a little over 2 days of travel and it reached G3.

When was this? The recent eruption only reached G2, no? If it reached G3 I must have missed it, and the GFZ says it peaked at a Kp of 6.333 (6+), which is only G2 as far as I'm aware. Perhaps you're referring to some other event, or maybe there's something I've missed.

[Jesterface23]

5 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

When was this? The recent eruption only reached G2, no? If it reached G3 I must have missed it, and the GFZ says it peaked at a Kp of 6.333 (6+), which is only G2 as far as I'm aware. Perhaps you're referring to some other event, or maybe there's something I've missed.

At the time, the SWPC went with G3/Kp7- between 03:00Z-06:00Z on the 19th

[Hagen72]

Am 21.9.2023 um 17:32 Uhr sagte Jesterface23:

Dies scheint der große Umriss zu sein, wobei der helle, nach Südosten gerichtete Teil ein anderer CME ist.

..............

Und da jetzt mehr Sonnenbilder vorliegen, sieht es so aus, als ob die Eruption zwischen einem mittelschweren und einem großen Eruptionsereignis stattgefunden hat. CHs im Norden blockieren möglicherweise das meiste davon auf dieser Seite.

 

.............

Schließen Sie eine kurze Einschätzung ab, bevor Sie losfahren. Die Reisezeit für die CME kann etwa 3 Tage betragen.

Is it possible,  that we had another smaler flare during tue M8 Flare?

[Philalethes]

45 minutes ago, Hagen72 said:

Is it possible,  that we had another smaler flare during tue M8 Flare?

There was some smaller flaring there both before and after, probably just in the C-range somewhere; it doesn't quite look sympathetic to me, looks more independent, but I guess there's always a chance that they might be related.

[hamateur 1953]

I would agree that swpc did a very good job with intensity estimation and pretty darn well with arrival time.  Although ultimately disappointed, I did learn from magnetometer readings fairly locally that a kp 8 will likely be what it takes for me to see something in Washington state.  ( Sam our moderator is a little more fortunate being in our midwest I think.  I have latitude and weather envy here 😝) 

3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

At the time, the SWPC went with G3/Kp7- between 03:00Z-06:00Z on the 19th

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[kansasaurorachaser]

  

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I would agree that swpc did a very good job with intensity estimation and pretty darn well with arrival time.  Although ultimately disappointed, I did learn from magnetometer readings fairly locally that a kp 8 will likely be what it takes for me to see something in Washington state.  ( Sam our moderator is a little more fortunate being in our midwest I think.  I have latitude and weather envy here 😝) 

 

 

I captured this in Kansas on Monday  During Kp 5-6 I believe at the time.   10:13pm  9/18/23

 

https://imgur.com/9h0GN6b

Edited September 22, 2023 by kansasaurorachaser

[MinYoongi]

@Jesterface23 did you take a look at Nasa's runs for the cme we talked about? 

[mozy]

Hoping for something bigger from this ongoing M-flare

[tniickck]

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Hoping for something bigger from this ongoing M-flare

it is from 2 groups at the same time, so I dont think about something considerable 

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hoping for something bigger from this ongoing M-flare

i think maybe a cme lifted off but im not sure how good/much etc.

[mozy]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

i think maybe a cme lifted off but im not sure how good/much etc.

Yeah it doesn't look that impressive at first glance but seeing the region is directly earthfacing, it's giving me a bit more hope.

[Jesterface23]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

@Jesterface23 did you take a look at Nasa's runs for the cme we talked about? 

Almost overlapping. Now it just needs to happen lol

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Almost overlapping. Now it just needs to happen lol

What needs to happen? lol 

what i wanted to say, you estimated Bulk impact and g2-g3 if i remember correctly, in the CME scoreboard and the nasa runs i cant find anything for the m1,4 flare + cme above KP5  But maybe a rerun will happen. 

11 minutes ago, mozy said:

Yeah it doesn't look that impressive at first glance but seeing the region is directly earthfacing, it's giving me a bit more hope.

yeah! 💯

[Jesterface23]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

what i wanted to say, you estimated Bulk impact and g2-g3 if i remember correctly, in the CME scoreboard and the nasa runs i cant find anything for the m1,4 flare + cme above KP5  But maybe a rerun will happen.

It may have actually been a filament eruption rather than the region. Though I'm wondering if the filament eruption possibly triggered a CME to launch from 3435, but SA's science data imagery will be able to clarify that quickly when available. NOAA has a model run out too, so we'll see if they issue any watch.

 

For the current flare, it looks interesting. Waiting on all the imagery.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

It may have actually been a filament eruption rather than the region. Though I'm wondering if the filament eruption possibly triggered a CME to launch from 3435, but SA's science data imagery will be able to clarify that quickly when available. NOAA has a model run out too, so we'll see if they issue any watch.

 

For the current flare, it looks interesting. Waiting on all the imagery.

Why interesting?  Im looking at it in Suvi (304 A) but when a region is that earth facing i have problems seeing the ejecta/Material.

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

 NOAA has a model run out too, so we'll see if they issue any watch.

 

Oh, thanks for telling me. i'll take a look! often noaa is slower with their runs, and unlike nasa they dont issue it for all cme's, but theyre more precice.

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Why interesting?  Im looking at it in Suvi (304 A) but when a region is that earth facing i have problems seeing the ejecta/Material.

The flare is somewhat eruptive so far in differenced imagery, but still waiting to see to what extent.

[cgrant26]

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Why interesting?  Im looking at it in Suvi (304 A) but when a region is that earth facing i have problems seeing the ejecta/Material.

Oh, thanks for telling me. i'll take a look! often noaa is slower with their runs, and unlike nasa they dont issue it for all cme's, but theyre more precice.

Still to early to see if it was eruptive or not but keeping my fingers crossed.

[hamateur 1953]

From 43 apparently and really unusual flux curve.  

[MinYoongi]

Just now, cgrant26 said:

Still to early to see if it was eruptive or not but keeping my fingers crossed.

yeah, lasco takes forever.  I sometimes look at Suvi or Stereo-A's Coronagraph to atleast get a confirmation of Ejecta and sadly have to wait for Lasco, Nasa/Noaa/you guys to tell me if its the right direction.

[Ester89]

I don't know if someone commented something and I missed it, but doesn't this region have its polarities reversed?

[Jesterface23]

42 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

I don't know if someone commented something and I missed it, but doesn't this region have its polarities reversed?

Well, it sure has had an interesting past being old regions 3386 and 3413. It started out normal, became positive polarity dominate, and negative polarity remnants shifted northwest.

[hamateur 1953]

Wasn’t aware of the ‘86 history @Jesterface23good call.  The latitude and timing was what caused us both to wonder about this AR.  I was about to contact @3gMikefor his take on it.  Lets hope it resumes its x-class history. On  OUR side before @Newbiegets her minions into the act!  🤣🤣🤣

6 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Well, it sure has had an interesting past being old regions 3386 and 3413. It started out normal, became positive polarity dominate, and negative polarity remnants shifted northwest.

 

20 hours ago, Hagen72 said:

Is it possible,  that we had another smaler flare during tue M8 Flare?

Yes. Very.  Perhaps even two.