AR 3413

[Newbie]

38 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

And a final goodbye with an M6

Lol those minions have been working overtime probably need a break!!

N.

[tniickck]

every good flare happens when I am sleeping

[Vancanneyt Sander]

3 uren geleden, tniickck zei:

every good flare happens when I am sleeping

And/Or at the limb 😂 just like it was in SC24 😞 but we’re still not at solar max so good things will come ☺️ #stayPositiveCycle

[arjemma]

3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

And/Or at the limb 😂 just like it was in SC24 😞 but we’re still not at solar max so good things will come ☺️ #stayPositiveCycle

Yea that is getting tiring now, it's like the sun wants to make fun of us 😔
There are ongoing research on how the magnetic fields below the surface of the sun behaves and I'm excited to see what future science have to offer. For this cycle it almost looks like there are instability at the limb of the sun and something that makes the magnetic complexity more calm in the middle of the sun. 

Staying positive is always good, the full halo CME will come, it will. Patience is key.

[tniickck]

47 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Yea that is getting tiring now, it's like the sun wants to make fun of us 😔
There are ongoing research on how the magnetic fields below the surface of the sun behaves and I'm excited to see what future science have to offer. For this cycle it almost looks like there are instability at the limb of the sun and something that makes the magnetic complexity more calm in the middle of the sun. 

Staying positive is always good, the full halo CME will come, it will. Patience is key.

i dont think it works this way: when we see a flare on the limb, we see it here because of our location relatively to flare, so if it happened right there few months later/before, it could be earth directed. it is hard for me to explain, but there is just more chance for the flare to miss earth than to happen exactly opposite the earth

[arjemma]

33 minutes ago, tniickck said:

i dont think it works this way: when we see a flare on the limb, we see it here because of our location relatively to flare, so if it happened right there few months later/before, it could be earth directed. it is hard for me to explain, but there is just more chance for the flare to miss earth than to happen exactly opposite the earth

Not sure what you mean. Yes the limb is only the limb for us from our viewpoint. What I mean is that there are probably complex magnetic configurations under the surface of the sun and those seems so be stronger at some positions. For us it seems like one of those areas are at the limb. This is from our viewpoint and of course it might be in the middle of the sun for other viewpoints. So when I wrote the comment I wrote from Earth's viewpoint. Hard to explain indeed haha. This is only a vague theory that they are researching so it's not a fact.
There are a lot going on under the surface that we don't see. 

There are ongoing research and I have read a paper about it. I'm gonna try to find it again and link it here. The paper looked at the possibility of some areas on the sun being more active underneath than others and that might be why many eruptions happens at the limb from Earth's point of view during this cycle.

And yes, the odds of a CME to be earth directed aren't that high, you are right about that.

I hope I can find the article about this. I have it in my bookmarks somewhere. I have also heard some scientists like Tamitha Skov talking about it.

Edited September 3, 2023 by arjemma

[Ester89]

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

i dont think it works this way: when we see a flare on the limb, we see it here because of our location relatively to flare, so if it happened right there few months later/before, it could be earth directed. it is hard for me to explain, but there is just more chance for the flare to miss earth than to happen exactly opposite the earth

Yes, I think I understand what you mean because I have also thought so.  Since the earth revolves around the sun, the part of the sun (under the surface) that is right now on the limb from our viewpoint should be in a different position in a couple of months, right?

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, arjemma said:

Not sure what you mean. Yes the limb is only the limb for us from our viewpoint. What I mean is that there are probably complex magnetic configurations under the surface of the sun and those seems so be stronger at some positions. For us it seems like one of those areas are at the limb. This is from our viewpoint and of course it might be in the middle of the sun for other viewpoints. So when I wrote the comment I wrote from Earth's viewpoint. Hard to explain indeed haha. This is only a vague theory that they are researching so it's not a fact.
There are a lot going on under the surface that we don't see. 

There are ongoing research and I have read a paper about it. I'm gonna try to find it again and link it here. The paper looked at the possibility of some areas on the sun being more active underneath than others and that might be why many eruptions happens at the limb from Earth's point of view during this cycle.

And yes, the odds of a CME to be earth directed aren't that high, you are right about that.

I hope I can find the article about this. I have it in my bookmarks somewhere. I have also heard some scientists like Tamitha Skov talking about it.

I'm not sure if that's a feasible explanation, because at least to my knowledge there is rotation at all the layers (recent evidence even suggests the core is rotating much faster than previously assumed); don't get me wrong, I definitely agree that subsurface activity plays a large role and that some of those areas are rotating at different speeds (I know Scott McIntosh has shown in several of his papers that persistent active regions tend to drift longitudinally for that very reason), but I don't think there's any activity that could somehow remain still on the limb relative to Earth. Even if you e.g. assume that some large-scale activity across the entirety of the sphere actually does remain still, then it would still fail to account for Earth's orbit, so to circumvent this you'd essentially need for such large-scale activity to be drifting longitudinally at close to Earth's angular orbital speed (possible, perhaps, but doesn't sound very plausible at a first glance if you ask me).

26 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Yes, I think I understand what you mean because I have also thought so.  Since the earth revolves around the sun, the part of the sun (under the surface) that is right now on the limb from our viewpoint should be in a different position in a couple of months, right?

Yeah, and not just that, but all the layers of Sol are continuously rotating too (at least as far as I'm aware), so for any given layer where activity is present it would almost invariably end up facing Earth at some point even across a timespan of just a couple of months at most. This is the chart I've seen referenced a few times (although as mentioned above there's some recent evidence the core is rotating faster than that):

[arjemma]

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I'm not sure if that's a feasible explanation, because at least to my knowledge there is rotation at all the layers (recent evidence even suggests the core is rotating much faster than previously assumed); don't get me wrong, I definitely agree that subsurface activity plays a large role and that some of those areas are rotating at different speeds (I know Scott McIntosh has shown in several of his papers that persistent active regions tend to drift longitudinally for that very reason), but I don't think there's any activity that could somehow remain still on the limb relative to Earth. Even if you e.g. assume that some large-scale activity across the entirety of the sphere actually does remain still, then it would still fail to account for Earth's orbit, so to circumvent this you'd essentially need for such large-scale activity to be drifting longitudinally at close to Earth's angular orbital speed (possible, perhaps, but doesn't sound very plausible at a first glance if you ask me).

I think it's a misunderstanding cause I understand what you mean and that's also what I'm meaning. I might have misunderstood that paper but that's what I got from it. I don't think it's fixed on the limb from the viewpoint of the earth but more that the complexity underneath happens to be in similar latitude and longitudes where many eruptions do occur. So all I meant was that there are research ongoing that is looking at complexity under the surface and that it can affect how and where eruptions will happen. Then it's of course unfortunate that those places does occur at the limb from earth's point of view a lot of the time.  

So we are on the same page here. So I think this is a misunderstanding. I think Tamitha Skov even have a youtube video about this. I think I was writing sloppy in my first comment that created a misunderstanding.

[NEAurora]

Seems to me that, should they exist, whatever hotspots where surface/subsurface interactions that lead to large flares and eruptions seem to be about 90 degrees(+-) out of phase with Earth’s position, AND also seem to move at roughly the same angular velocity as the combined solar and Earth orbital rotation rates, thereby creating the limb-of-death illusion.   If this were the case, eventually we’ll end up more in phase with the solar activity and start seeing more activity on the Earth facing side.

Alternatively? There’s nothing special going on and we’re just seeing patterns in the noise because that’s what people like to do.  
 

either-way, the sun seems to be reverting to a (hopefully short lived) quieter and less organized phase, so maybe a chance for a reset?

Edited September 3, 2023 by NEAurora

[arjemma]

11 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

Seems to me that, should they exist, whatever hotspots where surface/subsurface interactions that lead to large flares and eruptions seem to be about 90 degrees(+-) out of phase with Earth’s position, AND also seem to move at roughly the same angular velocity as the combined solar and Earth orbital rotation rates, thereby creating the limb-of-death illusion.   If this were the case, eventually we’ll end up more in phase with the solar activity and start seeing more activity on the Earth facing side.

Alternatively? There’s nothing special going on and we’re just seeing patterns in the noise because that’s what people like to do.  
 

either-way, the sun seems to be reverting to a (hopefully short lived) quieter and less organized phase, so maybe a chance for a reset?

That is also a possibility but would include a lot of complex mechanisms. Either way it's interesting that scientists are studying this phenomenon, if it is a phenomenon... could be the human mind just seeing patterns like you say. I don't think it would be locked to the position of earth if they will find a connection, I think it will be more like hotspots at certain locations of the sun. If there were satellites that are placed on the farside of the sun things like this would be easier to study. Time will tell if research will find evidence on anything like this in the future.

Yea the sun is much more quiet now again 😔 Hopefully we will have another region that will take this region's place for a while.

[tniickck]

***

only on the farside hell no

[Sam Warfel]

8 hours ago, tniickck said:

***

only on the farside hell no

Where is this data from

[hamateur 1953]

Personally, I was fond of an earlier post by an Aussie who suggested “Stage Fright”  The inexplicable fear AR’s attain when within our view.  Needs a meme!   

[tniickck]

5 hours ago, Sam Warfel said:

Where is this data from

STIX Quick-look data browser (i4ds.net)

[arjemma]

11 hours ago, Sam Warfel said:

Where is this data from

Like @tniickck is saying it's from the Spectrometer Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on the satellite Solar Orbiter. You can find the different data on this website: https://datacenter.stix.i4ds.net/ 

You can find the flares under the STIX solar flare list section. Here is the link to the flare in question: https://datacenter.stix.i4ds.net/view/plot/lightcurves?start=1694170651&span=7512

[Philalethes]

22 hours ago, tniickck said:

only on the farside hell no

Not bad, that's even stronger than some of the other recent large farside flares, at least I remember a couple that were estimated to X1.

Anyone got any idea what's up with the "operational caveats" that are listed on that day? Around the time of the flare it says "attenuator inserted" and "attenuator removed", twice in succession. Looks like the flare occurred after the first one; just wondering if this is something that occurred due to the flare, or whether the data might be compromised due to that. From what I gather on this page it's something STIX does indeed do in response to strong flares to be able to measure them properly:

Quote

The STIX Spectrometer uses 64 discrete Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride (CZT) planar detectors, one behind each subcollimator, to provide good energy resolution while operating at room temperature. CZT detectors have been flown in space, for example, on NASA's SWIFT mission where 32,768 such detectors have been used. A cold finger is required to maintain detectors and electronics at 25° C or less. Moveable attenuators enable STIX to be responsive to the entire expected intensity range of x-ray flux. Such attenuators, based on temperature sensitive shape memory alloy actuators, have proven to be effective and very reliable on RHESSI.

Looking at it a bit more closely the reason it seems like the attenuator was inserted before the time of the flare on the site is because what's listed is the time of the peak, and that it was inserted as the flare was rising. Zooming in on the plot of the flux confirms this:

So at around 11:11 when the attenuator was first inserted the flare was already around X-flare levels.

[tniickck]

 

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Not bad, that's even stronger than some of the other recent large farside flares, at least I remember a couple that were estimated to X1.

Anyone got any idea what's up with the "operational caveats" that are listed on that day? Around the time of the flare it says "attenuator inserted" and "attenuator removed", twice in succession. Looks like the flare occurred after the first one; just wondering if this is something that occurred due to the flare, or whether the data might be compromised due to that. From what I gather on this page it's something STIX does indeed do in response to strong flares to be able to measure them properly:

Looking at it a bit more closely the reason it seems like the attenuator was inserted before the time of the flare on the site is because what's listed is the time of the peak, and that it was inserted as the flare was rising. Zooming in on the plot of the flux confirms this:

So at around 11:11 when the attenuator was first inserted the flare was already around X-flare levels.

interesting 

attenuator is always inserted when X-flares happen (sometimes not, when it is <X2), maybe because of the blackout of main equipment or to measure it correctly

Edited September 9, 2023 by tniickck
typo

[Solarflaretracker200]

On 9/3/2023 at 7:18 AM, Vancanneyt Sander said:

And/Or at the limb 😂 just like it was in SC24 😞

Late response, but hasn't SC25 had more of the stronger flares earth-facing? I have no idea, hah, I haven't been on for quite a few months, I could be imagining that😅

 

[tniickck]

2 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Late response, but hasn't SC25 had more of the stronger flares earth-facing? I have no idea, hah, I haven't been on for quite a few months, I could be imagining that😅

 

not yet, remember AR2673 and 2192

[SpaceWeather5464]

Looks like it produced another fast CME on the far side.

[Landon Moeller]

5 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Looks like it produced another fast CME on the far side.

A beautiful halo. Probably the 5th or 6th one it’s produced on the far side. This is getting out of hand

[hamateur 1953]

Wow.  That is impressive! 

23 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

A beautiful halo. Probably the 5th or 6th one it’s produced on the far side. This is getting out of hand

 

[Jesterface23]

Maybe ~36 hours travel time to 1AU on that one. The region's only about 5 days from the limb at this point?

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Landon Moeller said:

A beautiful halo. Probably the 5th or 6th one it’s produced on the far side. This is getting out of hand

Damn! Looks like it's headed straight for Mars, heh.