Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 This region has been growing rapidly, quite close to another AR (13285). Right now it's developed a very noticeable delta, albeit still not a very big one. Something to keep an eye on, I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 When did it start growing? Because the last synoptic map is not even 4h old and gave it a 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When did it start growing? Because the last synoptic map is not even 4h old and gave it a 5% chance Roughly three days ago; here you can see a timelapse of it from about that time (starting at 10:45 on 24/04) until now. Already since I posted that another prominent delta has formed (the two regions near the middle that are separated in the gif above are now very close together, looks to be a result of the positive region growing a bit and moving towards the negative region). The previous one has diminished somewhat, but is still clearly present. To me it looks like it could definitely pop, but it could just as well fizzle away into oblivion too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Just now, Philalethes Bythos said: Roughly three days ago; here you can see a timelapse of it from about that time (starting at 10:45 on 24/04) until now. Already since I posted that another prominent delta has formed (the two regions near the middle that are separated in the gif above are now very close together, looks to be a result of the positive region growing a bit and moving towards the negative region). The previous one has diminished somewhat, but is still clearly present. To me it looks like it could definitely pop, but it could just as well fizzle away into oblivion too. Can you maybe show me what exactly you’re talking about that changed? when did a delta form? Cuz not even 4hours ago noaa gave it a very small chance of overall flaring and you’re talking about multiple deltas etc 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Can you maybe show me what exactly you’re talking about that changed? when did a delta form? Cuz not even 4hours ago noaa gave it a very small chance of overall flaring and you’re talking about multiple deltas etc 😅 The two deltas I'm talking about are the two areas near the middle of the above gif (the one in the OP). Looking at the individual images I've stored for the timelapse I just linked to it seems like the first delta was identifiable as such around ~23:00 yesterday (26/04), and the last one like I mentioned formed just now after I started the thread, less than an hour ago; that is the largest of the two at this point. You can see the positive spot growing and moving closer to the negative spot right at the end of the timelapse. Edited April 27, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Eh, last time I checked there was barely anything there and now 2 clear deltas, interesting, but as usual they'll fizzle out I assume ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: This region has been growing rapidly, quite close to another AR (13285). Right now it's developed a very noticeable delta, albeit still not a very big one. Something to keep an eye on, I suppose. Jan Alvestad at Solen https://www.solen.info/solar/ rates it as possibly having potential to produce an M flare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, mozy said: but as usual they'll fizzle out I assume Well, well, well; would you look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Well, there's the M-flare lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, mozy said: Well, there's the M-flare lol 😂 Dimmings? Was very impulsive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: 😂 Dimmings? Was very impulsive Nah, don't think there's anything, looks kinda cute when you watch SUVI 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 Doesn't look very eruptive at first glance, though. I guess we'll see when we get more imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hagen72 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Diese Region ist schnell gewachsen, ganz in der Nähe eines anderen AR (13285). Im Moment hat es ein sehr auffälliges Delta entwickelt, wenn auch noch kein sehr großes. Etwas, das man im Auge behalten sollte, nehme ich an. M1,88 Flare... i Think we will have fun with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Is it eclipse season or why do we have no xray flux data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 4 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Is it eclipse season or why do we have no xray flux data? I think eclipse season is over for now, last was 13/04 as per NOAA (except for a single Lunar penumbral eclipse in May, 19/05 on the list I looked at). Not sure why the data cut off for ~30 minutes there, but definitely not an eclipse considering both that and that it happened to the data from both. Perhaps something happened on the receiving end of the data, that'd probably be my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Well seems like it’s officially a beta gamma delta now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 8 hours ago, Philalethes said: I think eclipse season is over for now, last was 13/04 as per NOAA (except for a single Lunar penumbral eclipse in May, 19/05 on the list I looked at). Not sure why the data cut off for ~30 minutes there, but definitely not an eclipse considering both that and that it happened to the data from both. Perhaps something happened on the receiving end of the data, that'd probably be my first guess. The X-ray flux data is down again since 23:59 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulo Scaldaferri Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Nervous guy around getting more nervous… please flux come back I don’t like looking just SOHO - SDO ugly images of 3288 It’s back.😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Paulo Scaldaferri said: Nervous guy around getting more nervous… please flux come back I don’t like looking just SOHO - SDO ugly images of 3288 It’s back.😀 I find the images to give greater detail as to the goings-on of the Sun than any one measurement. The measurements combined create useful information, but seeing the growth first-hand in the imagery of sunspots such as this one has been a wonder - you see everything else in the meantime. The sunspots themselves are within usual parameters, but SWPC's separate numbering for this pair is, in my opinion, a bit strange. The interactions between the two large spots is something of note, and separating them is likely for the sake of deeper observation - but take heed of its surroundings as well. There is a large plage region with a bit of agitated filament to the SE, providing some lesser interactions and may produce a filament eruption. Regions like this are a boon of excitement. Worried about aurora? Why? Edited April 28, 2023 by Christopher S. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 (edited) It's making friends. I would consolidate 3285 and 3288 at this point, given their relative motion towards one another at present. Post-filament eruption, it probably looks different now than what's shown above. Edited April 28, 2023 by Christopher S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 It's a very shapely region. I'd like to see something better than C-flares come from that though. I would feel robbed of the time I've already spent observing it haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 28, 2023 Author Share Posted April 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: It's a very shapely region. I'd like to see something better than C-flares come from that though. I would feel robbed of the time I've already spent observing it haha I'd say there's at least some chance of another M-flare; those last flares looked a bit more eruptive than the earlier ones, and that large delta doesn't seem to be going anywhere for now. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Hurry up 3288. Friday's almost over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Looks like It's fizzling out once again without any significant flares.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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