Solar Storm Anxiety

[Holly Brown]

So, with the recent CME on the far side of the sun it's been worrying me me about the solar maximum coming up in a few years...

[Marcel de Bont]

Welcome Holly.

There is nothing to worry about. Solar flares and solar storms are a regular occurrence which are more common of course during solar maximum than solar minimum. These phenomena have been occurring for billions of years and while the recent far side CME was powerful, it was not so extreme that you should have to worry about it if it was launched towards Earth. Hope this eases your mind a bit.

[Christopher S.]

There is no scientifically-based material out there which should cause you to worry about Solar Maximum unless you are either A. A satellite with sketchy shielding, or B. an extremely sensitive scientific instrument of some kind. Please avoid YT videos that frame the Sun as being any more deadly than when you fall asleep or bathe in sunlight for too long.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Christopher S.

[arjemma]

Earth has been hit by a lot of strong solar storms over the years and we have lived through it, many didn't even know it happened. Take the solar storms of 2003 for example. I do understand that this worries you but it isn't as bad as many youtubers make it sound like. Our technology can be affected, yes that is true but it wouldn't end our civilization. At most it would cause interruptions in our infrastructure for a short while.

If it eases your mind, I would suggest reading about past powerful solar storms and what happened at earth. 
Here is some good information about the solar storm in 1972: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_1972_solar_storms
Here is good information about the solar storms of 2003: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Halloween_solar_storms

They both happened recently and as you can see they caused some interruptions but that's it.

You are safe.

Edited March 14, 2023 by arjemma

[Christopher S.]

We had three days just last month above G2 storm conditions. The only thing worth mentioning to an average person about these things is the Aurora, but clearly we have to work a bit harder and undo fearmongering and bad intel. Often a fearmonger will take something unknown to the general public, often scientifically-based, and pervert it for their own benefit. They take advantage of vulnerability, generally in women, to create a following and push their own brand of propaganda.

"Believe in me and I will save you from the solar radiation, also buy a spot on my ranch and give your children to me" type people. Avoid do not engage.

[Archmonoth]

5 hours ago, Holly Brown said:

So, with the recent CME on the far side of the sun it's been worrying me me about the solar maximum coming up in a few years...

There are far more local anxieties to be concerned with.

As others have said, the solar max and the far side CME is not something to be concerned with.

[Holly Brown]

Thank you for the reassurance, I guess what got me especially worried was Alex Young's post about from EarthSky https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

[SpaceWeather5464]

We were hit by powerful CME'S in 2000, 1989, 1972, and 2003 and nothing really bad happened expect for some satellite issue mostly the old ones. So everything would be ok if one happened today or by 2025.

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, Holly Brown said:

Thank you for the reassurance, I guess what got me especially worried was Alex Young's post about from EarthSky https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

I see now. Always keep in mind when viewing scientific products that they are designed to provide statistical information in a quick and concise fashion, rather than explain the totality of what is going on. That page appears to be nothing more than a blog for Alex Young to share his solar interests, and he uses such products often.

It is important to reference the genesis of life on Earth alongside these events, and that we are here today in spite of it. While at the micro-cellular level one may sustain damage in technical terms, try to realize that these events are scientifically wonderful and benign to our livelihood beyond the satisfaction it brings aurora watchers, and information provided in the name of research. Alex isn't indicating a reason to worry, because there is none. Simply avoid over-exposure to direct sunlight, as always. You'll get skin cancer or overheat before ever realizing other hazards, owing to the safety of the geomagnetic field and biological adaptations which make us quite resilient.

[MinYoongi]

Keep in mind yesterdays Event was rare. Its not like they happen every few years.

in 2012 there was a big backsided Eruption too where people said similiar things.    I think with us watching the sun more and more and closer and closer we will see a little bit more of those events as time goes on.

If i understand everyone here right and go after my own knowledge, its extremely rare and unlikely to experience such a CME and even if, we would be fine

[arjemma]

I think it is important to be realistic and to say that nothing will happen is not realistic. It is well known that solar storms can affect GPS reception which can cause issues for airlines for example. We humans will solve that by making airplanes fly at lower latitudes away from the poles. There are several more examples. Just brushing it off and telling people that it won't affect us at all can be damaging. NOAA wouldn't put out warnings for geomagnetic storms if it won't affect us at all. Affecting GPS reception is affecting some people on earth that is reliable on GPS at that given moment (like pilots).

It is important that we humans do research in this field to be better prepared and solve the issues that can come with a big solar storm. The more we know about it, the more we can protect our technology. We have a lot more information now than we had 20 years ago. 

With that said it's very sad that there are people with a big following on websites and social media that spread misinformation and fearmongering. They blow it up to much bigger proportions than it is and scare people that it will affect their personal life. They often use words like "scary", "dangerous", "earth ending", "apocalypse" and so on which doesn't help at all.

[Solarflaretracker200]

9 hours ago, Holly Brown said:

So, with the recent CME on the far side of the sun it's been worrying me me about the solar maximum coming up in a few years...

There is nothing to worry about. Yes, the recent CME is huge but there was one back in early 2022 I think and nothing happened either. Plus if this CME has Earth directed, nothing would happen but some freaking amazing northern lights. There is nothing to worry about. 

[Ale Xis]

Hypothetically, what would be the approximate time range between a super coronal mass ejection, with the energy necessary to cause the Miyake event, and its subsequent impact on the planet? how many hours?
Greetings from Chile!

[Archmonoth]

11 hours ago, Ale Xis said:

Hypothetically, what would be the approximate time range between a super coronal mass ejection, with the energy necessary to cause the Miyake event, and its subsequent impact on the planet? how many hours?
Greetings from Chile!

The range has a lot of variation. Imagine it in terms of cars and trucks, and semi-trucks. A car going 3000kph has less energy than a semitruck going 3000kph. They might arrive at the same time but have different energy amounts. 

 

The range could be 4 hours, 18 hours, 20+ hours depending on the speed/total energy. 

 

The subsequent impact depends on what cities/locations are Sun facing, weather (clouds) and the local infrastructure. Some places are well insulated, others are not. Speculation is not something easily reduced or confirmed. However, there have been previous events without issue, just pretty lights. Each storm is different with different variables. 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Archmonoth

[Ale Xis]

20 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

The range has a lot of variation. Imagine it in terms of cars and trucks, and semi-trucks. A car going 3000kph has less energy than a semitruck going 3000kph. They might arrive at the same time but have different energy amounts. 

 

The range could be 4 hours, 18 hours, 20+ hours depending on the speed/total energy. 

 

The subsequent impact depends on what cities/locations are Sun facing, weather (clouds) and the local infrastructure. Some places are well insulated, others are not. Speculation is not something easily reduced or confirmed. However, there have been previous events without issue, just pretty lights. Each storm is different with different variables. 

Thank you! That is, at least 4 hours, enough to do some important shopping hahaha...better safe than sorry.
 

[Philalethes]

11 hours ago, Ale Xis said:

Hypothetically, what would be the approximate time range between a super coronal mass ejection, with the energy necessary to cause the Miyake event, and its subsequent impact on the planet? how many hours?
Greetings from Chile!

That's a very interesting question. It's obviously impossible to say for certain, but one can probably work out some estimates. I made some observations about something related in this comment and thread, although that was more specifically about the hypothetically strongest CME possible and estimates of what its speed would be. That being said, one of the papers there gives some estimates of relationships between various quantities related to flares, including CME speed and proton flux for superflares; that particular section ("ESTIMATION OF CME SPEED AND PROTON FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR SUPERFLARES") gives a formula:

Quote

V_CME,upperlimit = V_0 * F_SXR^(1/6)

Here "V_CME,upperlimit" represents the maximal estimate for possible speed associated with a given CME, V_0 is a base speed found to fit the relationship (1.3 × 10^4 km/s), and F_SXR is the peak flux in the 1-8 Å range, which is what we see on the GOES X-ray Flux and that is used to classify flare strength, considered as a unitless quantity.

To use this formula we then need to find out the estimated flare strength of the Miyake event; we could dig in and find more estimates, but one of the first I found was this one. There they estimate the source to have been either a single flare of strength X285 ± 140, or two separate ones of strength X180 ± 90. Since we're just trying to make a rough estimate, let's simply go with the first one and use the middle of that range, i.e. a X285 flare, and plug that into the equation.

As you can see, the result is ~7200 km/s. If we simply consider the estimated Earth-Sol distance of 1 au and calculate the time, we get an estimated time of ~5 hours and 45 minutes (rounded to nearest 5 minutes).

[Tormentius]

To anyone who is concerned about this CME, here’s Dr McIntosh saying that he doesn’t believe that it’s Carrington strength when asked

 

[RichG]

I hear and understand the concern about Apocalypse hype regarding flares and CMEs.  But you have to consider that NASA and the Smithsonian magazine are also spreading the fear.

From NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html#:~:text=Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground,electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection or CME these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. A CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

From Smithsonian Magazine - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-could-be-caused-by-a-massive-solar-storm-25627394/

One analysis looked at a 1921 storm—which was ten times more powerful than the 1989 event—and estimated that if it occurred today, it would leave some 130 million people without power, potentially affecting water and food distribution, heating and air conditioning, sewage disposal and a host of other aspects of the infrastructure we take for granted daily. The total cost of an even larger storm, such as the 1859 event, could be enormous: an estimated $1 to $2 trillion in the first year alone, and a total recovery that could take 4 to 10 years in total.

There are others.

So there are some "reliable" sources out there talking about potentially severe impacts due to a large CME.  Should we ignore those comments or is there more to it?

Thanks

[Tormentius]

4 hours ago, RichG said:

I hear and understand the concern about Apocalypse hype regarding flares and CMEs.  But you have to consider that NASA and the Smithsonian magazine are also spreading the fear.

From NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html#:~:text=Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground,electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection or CME these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. A CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

From Smithsonian Magazine - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-could-be-caused-by-a-massive-solar-storm-25627394/

One analysis looked at a 1921 storm—which was ten times more powerful than the 1989 event—and estimated that if it occurred today, it would leave some 130 million people without power, potentially affecting water and food distribution, heating and air conditioning, sewage disposal and a host of other aspects of the infrastructure we take for granted daily. The total cost of an even larger storm, such as the 1859 event, could be enormous: an estimated $1 to $2 trillion in the first year alone, and a total recovery that could take 4 to 10 years in total.

There are others.

So there are some "reliable" sources out there talking about potentially severe impacts due to a large CME.  Should we ignore those comments or is there more to it?

Thanks

I am not dismissive of those articles or the statements therein. What I am saying is that there are many who freak out any time that there is a large CME of any kind, partially due to being misinformed by individuals seeking clickbait or who are misinformed themselves. And that information, while still relevant in some respects, is somewhat out of date.

Now as for the experts themselves, the problem is that all of these articles and studies were written in 2013 and before and so much has been learned since then. Granted, there is no question that a massive Carrington class event would be majorly disruptive.

But based on what I’ve read, I do not believe it would be apocalyptic or civilization ending. The fact is that there are multiple heliophysicists who have stated that there are measures in place to reduce damage. There is a very real risk of voltage instability which would be massively disrupting and some isolated transformer damage but many don’t think that it would cause widespread permanent damage to every transformer.

 The problem is that all of the information you’re citing is from a decade ago and some is even older. Granted, we don’t know for sure what would happen in the event of such an event but there are many scientists from all over the world who say that the doomsday scenario is very unlikely to happen and that we’re more likely to go through some difficult disruptions that we would have to muddle through.

At the end of the day, the point is that such an event happening is very unlikely. Would we have some problems to deal with should it occur? Absolutely, I have never doubted that. But I am not convinced by some of the claims made in the older studies.

That being said, as some others on the forum have stated, the productive thing to do is keep this scenario as a possibility at the back of one’s head and take some topical preparations like one would do for any potential natural disaster. It is not something worth having crippling anxiety over given the low probability.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Tormentius

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, RichG said:

So there are some "reliable" sources out there talking about potentially severe impacts due to a large CME.  Should we ignore those comments or is there more to it?

Well, you have to consider that decision-making is almost always a cost-benefit analysis; a sufficiently freakish occurrence could always take down more satellites and transformers than we'd planned for if we are unlucky, but that doesn't mean it's rational to plan for that specifically. A Tunguska-class meteor could strike. Yellowstone could erupt. Massive earthquake could sweep the ground away right beneath your feet. Nuclear war could break out. There's no point in going around and being actively anxious about this; I would advocate anyone a certain level of preparedness in case of any type of emergency, to whatever extent people have time and resources for that, but that's just general advice, and nothing to do with geomagnetic storms specifically.

We can't really do much else other than remain aware of the possibilities and do what we can (again within the extent to which we have the time and resources to do so) to put preventive measures in place. After e.g. 1972, 1989, and 2003, and thinking back on events like 1859 and 1921, as well as imagining even more extreme Miyake-class events, grid engineers have noted that measures should be put in place to minimize the potential impact of geomagnetic storms, and the grid is likely a lot more resilient now than it was in the past, rather than more vulnerable. As far as I know, 2003 was pretty much a direct hit from a CME which is often estimated to have been of the same strength as the Carrington event, and while it did take out some satellites and destroy some transformers, there weren't really a lot of consequences to it; a short blackout in Sweden that was fixed within hours is commonly cited.

Fact is that humanity has always been vulnerable to natural disasters of various kinds, and being anxious about those possibilities, especially ones that we're even able to handle to quite a significant extent, seems highly unreasonable. If you are, that sounds more like a more general and deep-seated problem of underlying anxiety itself, which is probably what should be addressed, rather than any specific perceived object of anxiety.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Archmonoth]

7 hours ago, RichG said:

I hear and understand the concern about Apocalypse hype regarding flares and CMEs.  But you have to consider that NASA and the Smithsonian magazine are also spreading the fear.

From NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html#:~:text=Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground,electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

The article seems to try and explicitly reassure people.

"However, this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia so anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm."

 

7 hours ago, RichG said:

Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection or CME these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere.

Happens all the time, and even the previous mentioned article tries to put it in perspective. 

7 hours ago, RichG said:

Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. A CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

Insulation protects against this, both in humans and electronics. 

7 hours ago, RichG said:

From Smithsonian Magazine - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-could-be-caused-by-a-massive-solar-storm-25627394/

One analysis looked at a 1921 storm—which was ten times more powerful than the 1989 event—and estimated that if it occurred today, it would leave some 130 million people without power, potentially affecting water and food distribution, heating and air conditioning, sewage disposal and a host of other aspects of the infrastructure we take for granted daily. The total cost of an even larger storm, such as the 1859 event, could be enormous: an estimated $1 to $2 trillion in the first year alone, and a total recovery that could take 4 to 10 years in total.

There are others.

What's your point?

7 hours ago, RichG said:

So there are some "reliable" sources out there talking about potentially severe impacts due to a large CME.  Should we ignore those comments or is there more to it?

Thanks

I don't think anyone is ignoring these. However, the frequency of CMEs and X-Class flares is pretty common. There have been multiple X-Class flares and CMEs this year already. 

 

Perhaps try and think of them as "Sunquakes", like earthquakes, they have a large variety of duration, intensity, location, and total energy. There have been many massive earthquakes throughout history, just like solar events like the Carrington event, but most of the time it's a non-issue. 

 

I personally live in a place where "the big one" in terms of earthquakes could hit at any time, same with a nearby volcano. The anxiety associated with such events requires probability neglect, which means your imagination doesn't consider the very low frequency of such things. 

[Apolo OnMars]

Is normal feel some worry about the activy of sun, in effect the flares and cmes of sun are correlationed with increase geoplanetary effects (more earthquakes more strong and quantity and recurrency, etc, more volcano activity and enviromental events, and affect the cardiovascular health, many studies and papers can reflejate that, not be suppositions, tjey are not to be simples fears.

The evidence of the effect of solar flare in earth and persons are increasing, fortunately we have some strategies to tackle that situation if you are heliosensitive search forms to manage solar radiations that include a healthy diet specially cardiovascular healthy, isolate living with aluminiun etc, actually many factories produce paintings, materials with antiradiation properties and that is a fledgling business, finally the point is that healthy people don't feel anything about solar storms, but heliosensisitive people and people with health conditions may feel a worsening of their health on those days that is my opinion personal like health professional, obviously we need many more studies to demonstrate each and every one of these aspects that I have mentioned, meanwhile we can try some strategies especially if we notice some effects on our health for example and try to always keep calm this galaxy is friendly to life on earth , and try to always stay calm this galaxy is friendly to life on earth most of the time for example in the last big event there were also significant drops in energy directed to earth as if something somewhere along the way between the sun and the earth will try to compensate the surpluses have a good week and enjoy your life

[RichG]

Thanks for all the feedback and comments.  Some were a little defensive ("what's your point" for example) ... my post wasn't attacking any particular person or comment.  It was merely a reaction to a theme that "suggested" nothing to worry about (ever) just enjoy the light show.  I'm always for complete transparency and I think the comments from the blog reflected a good, real world view - apocalypse no, disruptions could range from severe to mild, and most CMEs will result in nothing but a light show.

I'm a long time engineer, researcher and entrepreneur, I prefer to be completely open and share all the information with people.  Some might overreact in a negative way but that's ok, most will appreciate the openness.  And your credibility will be even stronger by telling it like it is.

Finally, in fairness, I cited a couple of articles and also noted there were more out there.  Some of the comments suggested that they were old articles and things may have improved - well, possibly.  Here are some more current articles with the same concerns.

BBC Sky at Night Magazine (Nov 30, 2022) - "They can destroy satellites, disrupt communications and knock out power grids."

https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-science/coronal-mass-ejections-dangerous/

Space.com (June 24, 2022) - "These colossal clouds of plasma can wreak havoc with power grids and satellites, but can also trigger stunning aurora displays."

https://www.space.com/coronal-mass-ejections-cme

And there are more of these within the last 3 yrs.

Hope this doesn't offend anybody, I enjoy the site.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, RichG said:

Some of the comments suggested that they were old articles and things may have improved - well, possibly.  Here are some more current articles with the same concerns.

Note how neither of those articles state anything other than those same generalities, and neither say anything about the experiences engineers have taken home from previous storms and the measures that have been taken to make the grid more resilient.

I would strongly suggest that you try to look deeper into the latter rather than list more popsci articles that are just stating those basic facts that have already been thoroughly addressed above.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[RichG]

Sigh - I’m not sure why this has turned into an argument – the issue is not opinions, just the facts.  I was merely suggesting that all the realities of a CME be discussed.  Its also become a little condescending – “… strongly suggest that you try to look deeper into the latter rather than list more popsci article …”

There is a lot of current data out there discussing current technologies and vulnerabilities.  All you have to do is look.

IEEE Spectrum (April 24, 2020) - Here Are the U.S. Regions Most Vulnerable to Solar Storms

https://spectrum.ieee.org/us-regions-most-vulnerable-solar-storms

“A new study about solar-induced power outages in the U.S. electric grid finds that a few key regions—a portion of the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard—appear to be more vulnerable than others.”

Wired (Aug 26, 2021) - A Bad Solar Storm Could Cause an 'Internet Apocalypse'

https://www.wired.com/story/solar-storm-internet-apocalypse-undersea-cables/

“New research shows that the failures could be catastrophic, particularly for the undersea cables that underpin the global internet.”

Signal (Jul 1, 2021) - Guarding the Power Grid Against a Natural Enemy

https://www.afcea.org/signal-media/guarding-power-grid-against-natural-enemy

Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory are exploring how to protect the grid against a coronal mass ejection from the sun that could physically damage the nation’s electrical infrastructure and knock out power for several weeks with resultant societal chaos and massive economic losses.

Steve Morley, a scientist with ISR-1 at LANL, notes that the NERC and FERC standards do not extend to a CME of the scope of the Carrington Event. “There is no requirement for the utilities to be robust to something that’s Carrington scale,” he says.

The Conversation (Mar 18, 2022) - A large solar storm could knock out the power grid and the internet – an electrical engineer explains how (Author - David Wallace, Assistant Clinical Professor of Electrical Engineering, Mississippi State University)

https://theconversation.com/a-large-solar-storm-could-knock-out-the-power-grid-and-the-internet-an-electrical-engineer-explains-how-177982

“I believe it is critical to continue researching ways to protect electrical systems against the effects of geomagnetic storms, for example by installing devices that can shield vulnerable equipment like transformers and by developing strategies for adjusting grid loads when solar storms are about to hit. In short, it’s important to work now to minimize the disruptions from the next Carrington Event.”

So, can we stop with the silliness now and move on?