MeteoLatvia Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) AR 13234 now fully into Earth facing disc view now, and just produced M4.7 flare. Edited February 21, 2023 by MeteoLatvia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 We're seeing some rapid growth in the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just looked at SDO HMI Continuum animation for past 24 hours and wow, it really grows pretty rapidly. I wonder if we are going to see magnetic complexity growth too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, MeteoLatvia said: Just looked at SDO HMI Continuum animation for past 24 hours and wow, it really grows pretty rapidly. I wonder if we are going to see magnetic complexity growth too? If we’re seeing more flaring, then it likely is growing more complex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 It also had a an M4 flare earlier while still not fully over the limb, which is promising (as long as it keeps growing and complexifying). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 New M-flare; impulsive by the looks of it, but I believe I'm seeing a small ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Now M5.09! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) Looks like now longer duration flare from AR 13234 - peaked at M1.41. Anyways - I think the region is growing more complex, giving that the flare activity starts to rise. Edited February 22, 2023 by MeteoLatvia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This was from the M4.4 flare on the 20th. A solar prominence was a little too close, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ABfyRmeg1MoTXTUK6xSTE4CNf5EYzBYk/view 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) A máme další, M2,68. Edited February 22, 2023 by Wolf star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Definitely seems to be some complexity going on now, has been for a little while. Flaring too, but nothing eruptive so far. Let's see it pop (yes, I just knocked on wood as I wrote that, so I can't be jinxing it)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Definitely seems to be some complexity going on now, has been for a little while. Flaring too, but nothing eruptive so far. Let's see it pop (yes, I just knocked on wood as I wrote that, so I can't be jinxing it)! Hopefully this region can stop the earth facing quiet now & give us something bigger High pressure is building in this weekend so I'm gonna have clear weather for like a week, but maybe it all sounds too good to be true Edited February 23, 2023 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Northern Sweden? ok then. Heck you only require clear skies any evening except around summer solstices to view some aurora..Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I’m going up north this weekend, so I’d love to see some nice Earth-directed action 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Northern Sweden? ok then. Heck you only require clear skies any evening except around summer solstices to view some aurora..Correct? I'm located between southern/middle parts of the country, need around kp 6 to see it with the naked eyes from here. I'm surprised how quiet this region is but at the same time I'm not, this always seem to happen 😅 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Kp 6?? Oh man do I feel your pain. same here. plus I must drive at least 200 km each way plus sacrifice a calf to see a bit of green cloud or whatever north!! Good luck bring us back some good pix anyway!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 For me here in Latvia, generally I need KP5 for me to see aurora on photos and at least KP6 for naked eye. Looks like the region has calmed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 So what is exactly stopping this region from flaring.. We're not even getting C-flares above 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 43 minutes ago, mozy said: So what is exactly stopping this region from flaring.. We're not even getting C-flares above 3.. Lack of complexity probably, seems like it's breaking apart a bit. Despite the big delta there doesn't seem to be a lot of mixing; it's classified beta-delta too, no gamma designation. It's almost a bit eerie at this point how practically every single region seems to break apart or not do much as it faces Earth, while complexifying and flaring at both limbs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Lack of complexity probably, seems like it's breaking apart a bit. Despite the big delta there doesn't seem to be a lot of mixing; it's classified beta-delta too, no gamma designation. It's almost a bit eerie at this point how practically every single region seems to break apart or not do much as it faces Earth, while complexifying and flaring at both limbs. Yh but still, it happens too often once they're earth facing ^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Margarita Κ. Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, mozy said: Yh but still, it happens too often once they're earth facing ^^ It has happened so many times in the past 4-5 months that I don't believe it's a coincidence anymore. So many things we don't know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, Margarita Κ. said: It has happened so many times in the past 4-5 months that I don't believe it's a coincidence anymore. So many things we don't know... I've thought about this too. If it really is the case I figure it either has to be internal (e.g. certain activity patterns at different layers resulting in certain drifting meridians having destructive interference that leads to spots breaking apart there instead of further complexifying and flaring) or external (e.g. forcing by speculative notions like planetary alignments), but I think it's fully possible that we've just been unlucky and that there simply hasn't been enough activity yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: I've thought about this too. If it really is the case I figure it either has to be internal (e.g. certain activity patterns at different layers resulting in certain drifting meridians having destructive interference that leads to spots breaking apart there instead of further complexifying and flaring) or external (e.g. forcing by speculative notions like planetary alignments), but I think it's fully possible that we've just been unlucky and that there simply hasn't been enough activity yet. When you consider how many degrees is really Earth facing (20? 30?) compared to the 360 degrees of sun, that’s like only 1/14th of the sun that’s Earth-directed. So 13 of every 14 flares or complex sunspots would not take place facing Earth, which are long odds that seem to fit out observations. I think it’s just luck, and the above (very rough) estimates as to why we don’t see more center meridian flares. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Is there any chance now that the region will erupt sometime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 uren geleden, MeteoLatvia zei: Is there any chance now that the region will erupt sometime soon? It’s been quiet and magnetically it isn’t that great (yes it has a delta spot but it isn’t big). So I don’t expect much from it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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