AR 13176

[MinYoongi]

Those 2 tweets sound kinda contradicting to me. Is it now a full hit CME or a glancing blow? And is it fast or slow ? @Landon Moeller

 

[Landon Moeller]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Those 2 tweets sound kinda contradicting to me. Is it now a full hit CME or a glancing blow? And is it fast or slow ? @Landon Moeller

 

Spacewxwatch has cleared things up on twitter! I 100% believe Earth gets hit in a few days.

[Philalethes]

I see; when I make a thread intimating that the region will end the world, it stops being active, and when I declare it a dud it starts flaring and there's 20 new posts when I check the thread again. Starting to see the pattern now.

[MinYoongi]

Does someone know why SDO isn’t updating anymore? JSOC status indicates that data is coming in.

[Philalethes]

39 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Does someone know why SDO isn’t updating anymore? JSOC status indicates that data is coming in.

I also wonder if there's a general answer to this, because it very often skips a lot of updates. Maintenance or something of the sort, perhaps?

[Jesterface23]

The imagery is still available and live, just not on SDO's site. Whatever that comes down to.

[MinYoongi]

8 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I also wonder if there's a general answer to this, because it very often skips a lot of updates. Maintenance or something of the sort, perhaps?

 

8 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The imagery is still available and live, just not on SDO's site. Whatever that comes down to.

Yes.

the imagery can be found on the JSOC page ( for example : http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/hmi/images/latest/HMI_latest_color_Mag_4096x4096.jpg ) 

i just wonder why the sdo page wasn’t updated for 3 days..

[Andrey M]

What a mess in the interpretation of yesterday's CME! 🤔

NOAA: "A CME associated with the 30/1938 UTC M3 flare has been analyzed and is expected to arrive on 04 Jan. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected."

SIDC: "The M1 flare from NOAA active region 3176 was associated with an EUV wave and dimming. An associated CME towards the South-West is visible in STEREO
A coronagraph data from around 16:53UTC. Coronagraph data from Earth perspective are currently still missing. Measurements on STEREO A coronagraph images indicate that the speed is not significantly above the ambient solar wind speed. Hence, despite the central location of the
originating region on disc, the current coronagraph data seem to indicate
that the ejecta are off the Sun-Earth line and with the measured slow speed we are not expecting any detectable influence on solar wind conditions near Earth. This forecast may be revised as further data become available.
No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph images."

CACTus (SIDC) only one suitable CME 15:48 UT median V ~ 600 km/s

NASA: about 2 Jan near Earth? 

Who else? 🧐

Edited December 31, 2022 by Andrey M

[Landon Moeller]

3 hours ago, Andrey M said:

What a mess in the interpretation of yesterday's CME! 🤔

NOAA: "A CME associated with the 30/1938 UTC M3 flare has been analyzed and is expected to arrive on 04 Jan. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected."

SIDC: "The M1 flare from NOAA active region 3176 was associated with an EUV wave and dimming. An associated CME towards the South-West is visible in STEREO
A coronagraph data from around 16:53UTC. Coronagraph data from Earth perspective are currently still missing. Measurements on STEREO A coronagraph images indicate that the speed is not significantly above the ambient solar wind speed. Hence, despite the central location of the
originating region on disc, the current coronagraph data seem to indicate
that the ejecta are off the Sun-Earth line and with the measured slow speed we are not expecting any detectable influence on solar wind conditions near Earth. This forecast may be revised as further data become available.
No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph images."

CACTus (SIDC) only one suitable CME 15:48 UT median V ~ 600 km/s

NASA: about 2 Jan near Earth? 

Who else? 🧐

I highly disagree with NOAA, as the CME had already departed the sun BEFORE the M3 occurred. It was entirely from the M1. I agree with SDIC more, however despite the slow speeds, I would expect at least some disturbance to the IMF upon impact, even if little changes are forecast in the solar wind itself. I also think the NASA model is too fast with the CME, and subsequent arrival at earth for Sunday night. NOAA has arrival Tuesday night, a whole 48 hours later, however something like this would tend to make more sense given the slower CME that was seen in STEREO coronagraph. I would suspect a disturbance to the IMF upon arrival sometime on Monday or Tuesday.