Philalethes Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 A new challenger appears. Two M-flares and several high C-flares; will this be the one to completely destroy Earth's power grid while placating us with some nice lights in the sky to look at? Stay tuned to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Hey, at this point I’m so desperate for aurora and a nice full halo CME, I’d be willing to accept some power grid failures 🤣😂🤣😂 I’m afraid it’s complexity has diminished overnight, I kinda feel like it might not do another M unless it redevelops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: I’m afraid it’s complexity has diminished overnight, I kinda feel like it might not do another M unless it redevelops Yeah, this most recent M1 was from the 3169 area in the west, 3176 is a bit quieter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Hey man, it wasn’t me!  I haven’t even checked site in three days! I didn’t kill it I swear!  13 hours ago, Orneno said: Hey, at this point I’m so desperate for aurora and a nice full halo CME, I’d be willing to accept some power grid failures 🤣😂🤣😂 I’m afraid it’s complexity has diminished overnight, I kinda feel like it might not do another M unless it redevelops  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 On 12/27/2022 at 9:33 AM, Orneno said: I’m afraid it’s complexity has diminished overnight, I kinda feel like it might not do another M unless it redevelops I’m sad to say I called it 😠Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 Yeah, this one looks like a dud for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) Rather quick M flare from this region, it developed a small delta in the leading portion earlier today. It has since then faded away, but managed to give us some activity again anyways. Also looks somewhat eruptive even though it was impulsive in nature. Edited December 30, 2022 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, mozy said: Rather quick M flare from this region, it developed a small delta in the leading portion earlier today. It has since then faded away, but managed to give us some activity again anyways. Also looks somewhat eruptive even though it was impulsive in nature. What leads you to say it looked eruptive? Was there dimming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrey M Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Orneno said: What leads you to say it looked eruptive? Was there dimming? Yes, there were two dimmings Edited December 30, 2022 by Andrey M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: What leads you to say it looked eruptive? Was there dimming? An M1.4-class solar flare from near the central meridian occurred this morning with associated coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME looks to be likely Earth-directed. Analysis is limited today due to SOHO maneuvering, but arrival could be as early as late Sunday if not Monday.  read that on twitter I looked at stereo though and maybe I’m out of training or blind but I’m not seeing much @mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 An eruptive CME from an impulsive flare, but only the tip of the CME is in STEREO A's imagery so far from about 13 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: An eruptive CME from an impulsive flare, but only the tip of the CME is in STEREO A's imagery so far from about 13 minutes ago. Does that mean it’s a slow one? can you maybe show it? I can’t see it  I see one to the left but I think that’s not it Looking at suvi it seems to snap to the right but I don’t know if that changes anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Does that mean it’s a slow one? can you maybe show it? I can’t see it  I see one to the left but I think that’s not it We'll see when more imagery comes in. It looks to be a Multi CME event with one launching about an hour prior. And so far in the imagery, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: We'll see when more imagery comes in. It looks to be a Multi CME event with one launching about an hour prior. And so far in the imagery, Multi cme earthbound? Ty idk what to expect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Multi cme earthbound? Ty idk what to expect? First CME slow, 2nd CME better, expectations to be determined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: First CME slow, 2nd CME better, expectations to be determined I wonder where the first is from and why we see the second so late? Why is it better? still very dark in Northern Europe 🥰🥰 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I wonder where the first is from and why we see the second so late? Why is it better? still very dark in Northern Europe 🥰🥰 First one was small filament near center disk I think, or atleast something got flung out from there prior to the flare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Thanks! I hate that analysis is so slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Woah and now we have M 3.7 from this region out of nowhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, mozy said: Woah and now we have M 3.7 from this region out of nowhere lol Cool! Impulsive ? Eruptive ? I need to take a look at its magnetic layout soon, thought it’s uninteresting because you said the delta died down. Btw : https://twitter.com/halocme/status/1608908958525456384?s=46&t=fWb9jJdijNA8T0sqXjBQCQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Looks less impressive than the M 1.4 earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, mozy said: Looks less impressive than the M 1.4 earlier Looking at suvi I don’t even know if it’s eruptive. I can see a lil bit being flung away to the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/27/2022 at 9:22 AM, Philalethes Bythos said: A new challenger appears. Two M-flares and several high C-flares; will this be the one to completely destroy Earth's power grid while placating us with some nice lights in the sky to look at? Stay tuned to find out. You jest, but I feel like people on social media and YouTube would absolutely tell others that. Being serious, it seems like a decent sunspot, but these flares seem somewhat impulsive going by GOES X-Ray Flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Looking at suvi I don’t even know if it’s eruptive. I can see a lil bit being flung away to the right I would suspect this has shot off a CME to the north of the Sun-Earth line. As for this morning’s M1.4 flare, STEREO-A coronagraph confirms a likely arrival at earth in a few days, with most of it being south of earth. Should be more flares to come with this AR! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: First CME slow, 2nd CME better, expectations to be determined Cannibal event perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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