AR13165 - M-flares

[WildWill]

Howdy all Y’all!

Just watched a nice M flare pop off a few minutes ago. ITT has not been “placed”, but it was clearly visible in H-alpha… right there at 3165.

This AR is already heading to the west limb and given the number, it is fairly new. Lots of little spots. Looking at it on the (color) magnetogram, it appears there could be a couple of little deltas forming… certainly some mixing going on. 
 

Frm viewing the magnetogram, (color) and a coupke of the white light images, it appears to me that a coupke of deltas are forming, one is there I think. 

It also appears that this AR appeared at about where 3089 popped up. but I think that might be off a bit, haven’t checked… hoping 3gMike will beat me to it!

It was a nice little show, watched it with popcorn and a friend!

To iterate, nice show in H-alpha and, in my opinion, this AR has some serious potential behind it. Keep yer eyes on this one, and off my woman 😉

Best potential show in quite a while! 

Cheers. 
 

W n A

[mozy]

This region sure is growing nicely.. Few more hours of rapid growing and we might start getting into the moderate to strong M-class flares 😎

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur geleden, mozy zei:

This region sure is growing nicely.. Few more hours of rapid growing and we might start getting into the moderate to strong M-class flares 😎

Well it didn’t took long 😜 M4.11.

Not much dimming however so I don’t expect any CME.

[mozy]

New flare reaching M 6.3 👍

Non-eruptive again

[Sam Warfel]

No dimming on any of these? We did get some radio emissions, so I thought there was a chance of CMEs

[NEAurora]

10 minutes ago, Orneno said:

No dimming on any of these? We did get some radio emissions, so I thought there was a chance of CMEs

Something showing up in soho off the sw limb, not 100% sure if there’s an Earth directed piece, but it looks like a CME to me, and this would have been prior to the M6 flare.

 

[Jesterface23]

14 minutes ago, Orneno said:

We did get some radio emissions, so I thought there was a chance of CMEs

There are CMEs, just not eruptive at all yet.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Jeez I need to start watching more often. I’m missing stuff lol 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

35 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

There are CMEs, just not eruptive at all yet.

Yeah minor puffs, ain’t worth it 😜 a long duration eruptive event would make it more worthy 😇

seems like the region has a few small delta spots in the middle

[MinYoongi]

52 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There are CMEs, just not eruptive at all yet.

That makes no sense to me. How can there be cme without flares being eruptive?

 

15 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Yeah minor puffs, ain’t worth it 😜 a long duration eruptive event would make it more worthy 😇

seems like the region has a few small delta spots in the middle

Are they even earth directed? Is the AR still in a good enough Position?

[mozy]

15 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

seems like the region has a few small delta spots in the middle

Looks like those spots faded away a bit after the M 6.3 flare?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

20 minuten geleden, mozy zei:

Looks like those spots faded away a bit after the M 6.3 flare?

That would be pity 😭 at least we got some fireworks… hopefully 3163 will catch up soon

[Jesterface23]

21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

That makes no sense to me. How can there be cme without flares being eruptive?

I guess some regions get a lot of CMEs set to launch, they just need some sort of trigger. Impulsive or eruptive flare.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

23 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

That makes no sense to me. How can there be cme without flares being eruptive?

Small puffs aren’t wide CME’s. To have a wide CME you’ll need an eruptive event. Some flares can create small CME’s but those puffs aren’t much to give attention too.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

That would be pity 😭 at least we got some fireworks… hopefully 3163 will catch up soon

Im sadly unable to look at sdo on my mobile phone for 3163 magnetic layout. I think i saw a small delta in there earlier.

[3gMike]

8 hours ago, WildWill said:

It also appears that this AR appeared at about where 3089 popped up. but I think that might be off a bit, haven’t checked… hoping 3gMike will beat me to it!

Nice to see some decent activity levels !

This one is located at Carrington 278, latitude -20. Spots in similar location - AR3125 at C270, lat -22 in October and AR3043 at C279, lat -15 in June

AR3089 was a bit further away, but AR3088 appeared at C300, lat -26 in August.

WSO Photospheric field looks interesting in this region.

[IlikeAuroras]

It released a total of 6 M-flares within a short period of time. This sunspot had a 5% chance of releasing a M-flare, but it defied the odds! All 6 M-flares add up to a total of a 0.165% chance of this event happening! This is certainly unusual.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

31 minuten geleden, IlikeAuroras zei:

It released a total of 6 M-flares within a short period of time. This sunspot had a 5% chance of releasing a M-flare, but it defied the odds! All 6 M-flares add up to a total of a 0.165% chance of this event happening! This is certainly unusual.

Solar activity can rapidly change during the course of 24h. After a prediction is made for the day, sunspot regions can develop very quickly during the day and become magnetically complex and unstable beating the predictions. I bet tomorrows prediction % will be a lot higher 😉

[Philalethes]

34 minutes ago, IlikeAuroras said:

This sunspot had a 5% chance of releasing a M-flare, but it defied the odds!

[Archmonoth]

1 hour ago, IlikeAuroras said:

It released a total of 6 M-flares within a short period of time. This sunspot had a 5% chance of releasing a M-flare, but it defied the odds! All 6 M-flares add up to a total of a 0.165% chance of this event happening! This is certainly unusual.

Well AR 3165 seems to have the proper conditions for flares. Once those conditions occur, the previous % of flares won't be accurate. 

 

[mozy]

Damn this region is popping off, I'm almost starting to lose track lol.

[Bedreamon]

Since NOAA's sending out alerts about Type IV and Type II Radio Emissions, it's safe to assume there's a lot of CMEs. But I'm not currently seeing anything about them being earth-directed.

[WildWill]

6 hours ago, mozy said:

Damn this region is popping off, I'm almost starting to lose track lol.

And I've got nice clear skies tomorrow! 
its been fairly impressive, given what we've been getting...  very cool on SUVI/AIA and H-alpha! (Sdo & gong)

Gotta wonder why???

Its been the most prolific at popping off flares since 3088 - just had another! 
 

I'm a runnin out of fingers and toes! 
Unfortunately, it's headed to the limb shortly. 
Meanwhile it seems a lot of hope is floating around out there on AR13163 stepping up to the plate, I don't see it happening. At least not in its present state. I do see a couple of "deltas", borderline and weak in my opinion.

Taking another look at 3165, we see delta growth in the last 24 hours. It's also the only AR to kick off any decent flares for the last 24.

I can see some signs of more mixing than we saw last night and it also appears "darker" with more well defined spots... earlier it had appeared a little "washed out", not now!

with my limited number of tools and experiences, I'd bet on 3166 over 3163...  as a flare producer! 
 

I find it very interesting that we see so many deltas that just don't produce like one would expect. The magnetic sheering is just not there to get those fields all twisted and wound up like they are in those that produce. 

It seems a new qualification should be added before something is defined as a "delta" which includes magnetic field strength, stresses and strains and layout. Or add epsilon - as a delta with some action going on with it... lol.

I hope yer all enjoying the show as much as I have been. 

Fer all ya Aurora Seekers, it's been past  "earth facing" since before yesterday's action...  hopefully it will keep on kickin out dem flares as it moves on out around the limb.

I think it would be pretty good viewing to catch it popping off a nice flare or two right on the limb...  at least I think so. Silhouetted with the blackness of space behind it, rather than the bright sun all around it. We had a filament eruption about a month or six weeks ago, in which a large piece of the filament was shining brightly in H-a as it ruptured out onto space - and remained visible (in H-a) until it was past 250,000 clicks from the surface. Parts of the associated CME also radiated enough H-a to be seen twice as far out when I adjusted the CWL a little towards blue or red, and catch the plasma moving away from and towards us. 
 

Pardon me y'all, but I gotta get some popcorn going fer my girl! 

All y'all have ya a good un...

W n A

Edited December 15, 2022 by WildWill

[mozy]

It sure has quieted down a lot compared to yesterday (activity tends to pick up after I write stuff / think like this) so I'm trying it again 

Jokes aside, the region seems to have decayed quite a bit. and the delta definitely looks weaker.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur geleden, mozy zei:

It sure has quieted down a lot compared to yesterday (activity tends to pick up after I write stuff / think like this) so I'm trying it again 

Jokes aside, the region seems to have decayed quite a bit. and the delta definitely looks weaker.

Seems like it harboured energy for a long duration M-class flare that’s still in progress 😍