AR13153

[MinYoongi]

32 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Well that should be your indication right there 🤣😂🤣😂

Not a fearmongerer channel though! I dont watch those anymore.  

[Sam Warfel]

28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Not a fearmongerer channel though! I dont watch those anymore.  

Good good 😁

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Good good 😁

Do you feel like opening a Topic for the northern region? (has it rotated all around yet? ) just fired an M Class.

 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you feel like opening a Topic for the northern region? (has it rotated all around yet? ) just fired an M Class.

If you wanna you can! And M flare is notable, but that was like the shortest most impulsive M1 I’ve ever seen 🤣

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Orneno said:

If you wanna you can! And M flare is notable, but that was like the shortest most impulsive M1 I’ve ever seen 🤣

aw, yes. true!


Noaa upped the X Chance again. I still dont see a Delta or even a Gamma.

[MinYoongi]

getting gammer-y

[Solarflaretracker200]

Huh, the sun is actually active(ish) right now 

[MinYoongi]

We have our first little delta

 

@Philalethes Bythos Correct me if im wrong, but do you see the Light bridges in the Big spots to the right too? Dont they herald dying down?

[Drax Spacex]

2 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Huh, the sun is actually active(ish) right now 

Yes, the 10.7cm Solar Radio Flux has ramped up to 144 now.  That should make Ham radio operators happy!

[MinYoongi]

The Region looks like its trying to build deltas, i dont know if the tiny specs can be considered a delta yet what do you say @Philalethes Bythos ?

[hamateur 1953]

5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Yes, the 10.7cm Solar Radio Flux has ramped up to 144 now.  That should make Ham radio operators happy!

indeed! doubtful we will hit 200 this cycle however but because we humans are mere spectators, ya never know….

[Trestan]

9 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

We have our first little delta

 

@Philalethes Bythos Correct me if im wrong, but do you see the Light bridges in the Big spots to the right too? Dont they herald dying down?

Not @Philalethes Bythos, but light bridges are common in both forming and decay sunspots. This light bridge appears to have been there since around 3 December separating the two large umbral cores, so I do not think its presence indicates decay of the AR. Though I could be mistaken.

[Philalethes]

10 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

We have our first little delta

 

@Philalethes Bythos Correct me if im wrong, but do you see the Light bridges in the Big spots to the right too? Dont they herald dying down?

I can't say I do, seems like just regular separation between the umbrae to me. Also, it's mostly when the bigger spots start to get split in half or more pieces ("criss-crossed" by the bridges, if you like) that it signals decay, since it's a sign that the field has realigned itself and isn't as turbulent anymore.

As for a delta, I do see the intimations of one here, but I wouldn't put it down as one just yet:

[MinYoongi]

The spots i posted yesterday have died down. it doesnt looks as intermixed anymore. the lack of activity reflects this

[NEAurora]

Forget 3153, take a look at 3157.  Lots of rapid changes over the past day with growing magnetic complexity.  Looks like maybe delta in the southern most trailing spot.  Also, showing an uptick in c-flare activity.

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, NEAurora said:

Forget 3153, take a look at 3157.  Lots of rapid changes over the past day with growing magnetic complexity.  Looks like maybe delta in the southern most trailing spot.  Also, showing an uptick in c-flare activity.

Well, it's looking interesting for sure, but that would be deserving of its own thread I guess; telling people to "forget 3153" in the thread dedicated specifically to it seems a bit misplaced.

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Well, it's looking interesting for sure, but that would be deserving of its own thread I guess; telling people to "forget 3153" in the thread dedicated specifically to it seems a bit misplaced.

 

7 hours ago, NEAurora said:

Forget 3153, take a look at 3157.  Lots of rapid changes over the past day with growing magnetic complexity.  Looks like maybe delta in the southern most trailing spot.  Also, showing an uptick in c-flare activity.

I opened up its own thread.

[Trestan]

IMO the parasitic magnetic region (to the north east of the leading spot, indicated with a red arrow in the attached image) still has a good chance of producing some activity.

[hamateur 1953]

Personally,  I would love it if it ripped off an X class flare. I enjoy being wrong sometimes because that’s when all of us have a real chance to learn.  “ Hey! that crummy little thing wasn’t even an active region! more like a useless region! “. 

On 12/8/2022 at 6:30 PM, Trestan said:

IMO the parasitic magnetic region (to the north east of the leading spot, indicated with a red arrow in the attached image) still has a good chance of producing some activity.