MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Is this a recurring Region? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Let’s get a new thread started for this guy! I’m hopeful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Is this a recurring Region? That depends upon what you mean by recurring ! It was not visible on the last rotation, but if you go back in the archive to 17th October you will see that there was a sunspot AR13124 in a similar Carrington location. It existed as a Beta spot for just 4 days before disappearing behind the West limb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 54 minutes ago, Orneno said: Let’s get a new thread started for this guy! I’m hopeful! did you alr open one? and why hopeful? does it look good? Oh, nvm. this is it! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 35 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: did you alr open one? and why hopeful? does it look good? Oh, nvm. this is it! haha There does seem to be some confusion. The title of this thread is AR3154, but we have actually been discussing AR3153 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, 3gMike said: There does seem to be some confusion. The title of this thread is AR3154, but we have actually been discussing AR3153 ! Thanks for catching that, I just typed the number wrong 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: did you alr open one? and why hopeful? does it look good? Oh, nvm. this is it! haha It’s pretty big, it’s multi-cored, the leading group at least looks pretty interesting as well. Plus, it’s on the east limb, instead of the west, for once. Hopefully those farside CMEs weren’t the peak the spot is in decay. I’d love to finally have some decent earth-directed action It’s also been assigned better than usual flare probabilities, even though it’s severely foreshortened, we can’t really tell configuration yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 I dont really get why it got better flare probabilities, it only did C Class flares and it looks like beta to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 hours ago, 3gMike said: That depends upon what you mean by recurring ! It was not visible on the last rotation, but if you go back in the archive to 17th October you will see that there was a sunspot AR13124 in a similar Carrington location. It existed as a Beta spot for just 4 days before disappearing behind the West limb. That's very interesting. Prima facie it speaks to how the subsurface activity can continue in the same place even with the superficial activity gone; then again, it could possibly just be a coincidence. I wonder when or if someone will develop and engineer technology that lets us probe more effectively deeper into the surface; we already have a hard time doing that here on Earth, but perhaps Sol being more of a liquid/gaseous plasma could make it easier somehow, maybe using similar methods to those used to probe the far side. Also, since it's the most interesting one at the moment, I'm "tracking" it (inputting the coordinates by hand once every few days) and publishing transition gifs automatically to the same Drive link as previously (here). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I dont really get why it got better flare probabilities, it only did C Class flares and it looks like beta to me. Yes, at the moment it doesn’t look flare-y, the polarities are cleanly separated. But it’s growing fast, so this could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Also, since it's the most interesting one at the moment, I'm "tracking" it (inputting the coordinates by hand once every few days) and publishing transition gifs automatically to the same Drive link as previously (here). Yes, it may be interesting but I expect that AR3156 (just appearing on the East limb) is likely going to be the more active region, since the fields of opposite polarity are in closer proximity, are very strong, and share a boundary covering at least 20 degs of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 If these compressed more this could become a delta, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Orneno said: If these compressed more this could become a delta, maybe? No, because they are the same polarity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: Yes, it may be interesting but I expect that AR3156 (just appearing on the East limb) is likely going to be the more active region, since the fields of opposite polarity are in closer proximity, are very strong, and share a boundary covering at least 20 degs of latitude. i dont really see what you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 This spot was classed as beta-delta but I don’t see a delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Orneno said: This spot was classed as beta-delta but I don’t see a delta when was it classed beta delta, is it still that way, and when? I'll ask the Delta sniffer @mozy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Orneno said: This spot was classed as beta-delta but I don’t see a delta It is difficult to see, but by overlaying Magnetogram and Intensitygram I could convince myself it is there (in the right-hand penumbra). I've put the overlaid image beside the original Magnetogram to make comparison easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 To know for certain, we'd need to see the detailed worksheet / workup. 1) Which HMI imagery is used to determine polarity, colorized or black and white? 2) How is "same penumbra or "same penumbral area" determined and drawn? 3) Which are the individual sunspots in AR group being evaluated? Is that really a delta sunspot or just a delta pore that should not be considered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, 3gMike said: It is difficult to see, but by overlaying Magnetogram and Intensitygram I could convince myself it is there (in the right-hand penumbra). I've put the overlaid image beside the original Magnetogram to make comparison easier. it looks like what @Philalethes Bythoscalled a phantom penumbra rather than a delta 9 hours ago, Orneno said: Yes, at the moment it doesn’t look flare-y, the polarities are cleanly separated. But it’s growing fast, so this could change it barely changed all day to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 hours ago, MinYoongi said: it barely changed all day to me I think it was growing when it came around the limb, although it could have been an illusion to due to foreshortening. It does seem to have stabilized since then, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 hours ago, MinYoongi said: it looks like what @Philalethes Bythoscalled a phantom penumbra rather than a delta I believe the term is "orphan penumbra" (I mean, both words share "phan", over 50% of both words), but I must admit I still don't know if it applies in these cases, or whether it's only meant to refer to penumbrae that appear completely on their own instead of near umbrae of opposite polarities; if the latter is the case, then I guess a term of its own would be in order to describe these ones. I guess some more reading on the topic is in order whenever I get around to it. As for this region, I don't see any delta as of yet personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: As for this region, I don't see any delta as of yet personally. I absolutely agree and Noaa walked back the X-Class Flare chance too - but still considers and mentions it as Beta Delta in their Forecast Discussion updated 15mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 14 hours ago, MinYoongi said: when was it classed beta delta, is it still that way, and when? I'll ask the Delta sniffer @mozy! Yeah I haven't seen a delta at all ever since it started rotating into our view.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, mozy said: Yeah I haven't seen a delta at all ever since it started rotating into our view.. Same. Noaa is a clownfiesta at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 someone on youtube called this region BGD. I dont even see Gamma. Its just Beta.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: someone on youtube Well that should be your indication right there 🤣😂🤣😂 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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