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AR13153


MinYoongi

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2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

2c3bfe0e71a9fdf629e4414df85a2c0c.png556724a818b63cec90dbfb777d49b0d3.png

 

Is this a recurring Region? 

That depends upon what you mean by recurring !  It was not visible on the last rotation, but if you go back in the archive to 17th October you will see that there was a sunspot AR13124 in a similar Carrington location. It existed as a Beta spot for just 4 days before disappearing behind the West limb.

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35 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

did you alr open one? and why hopeful? does it look good?

Oh, nvm. this is it! haha

There does seem to be some confusion. The title of this thread is AR3154, but we have actually been discussing AR3153 !

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3 hours ago, 3gMike said:

There does seem to be some confusion. The title of this thread is AR3154, but we have actually been discussing AR3153 !

Thanks for catching that, I just typed the number wrong 

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

did you alr open one? and why hopeful? does it look good?

Oh, nvm. this is it! haha

It’s pretty big, it’s multi-cored, the leading group at least looks pretty interesting as well. Plus, it’s on the east limb, instead of the west, for once. 
Hopefully those farside CMEs weren’t the peak the spot is in decay. I’d love to finally have some decent earth-directed action

It’s also been assigned better than usual flare probabilities, even though it’s severely foreshortened, we can’t really tell configuration yet 

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16 hours ago, 3gMike said:

That depends upon what you mean by recurring !  It was not visible on the last rotation, but if you go back in the archive to 17th October you will see that there was a sunspot AR13124 in a similar Carrington location. It existed as a Beta spot for just 4 days before disappearing behind the West limb.

That's very interesting. Prima facie it speaks to how the subsurface activity can continue in the same place even with the superficial activity gone; then again, it could possibly just be a coincidence. I wonder when or if someone will develop and engineer technology that lets us probe more effectively deeper into the surface; we already have a hard time doing that here on Earth, but perhaps Sol being more of a liquid/gaseous plasma could make it easier somehow, maybe using similar methods to those used to probe the far side.

Also, since it's the most interesting one at the moment, I'm "tracking" it (inputting the coordinates by hand once every few days) and publishing transition gifs automatically to the same Drive link as previously (here).

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45 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I dont really get why it got better flare probabilities, it only did C Class flares and it looks like beta to me.

Yes, at the moment it doesn’t look flare-y, the polarities are cleanly separated. But it’s growing fast, so this could change 

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49 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Also, since it's the most interesting one at the moment, I'm "tracking" it (inputting the coordinates by hand once every few days) and publishing transition gifs automatically to the same Drive link as previously (here).

Yes, it may be interesting but I expect that AR3156 (just appearing on the East limb) is likely going to be the more active region, since the fields of opposite polarity are in closer proximity, are very strong, and share a boundary covering at least 20 degs of latitude.

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1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, it may be interesting but I expect that AR3156 (just appearing on the East limb) is likely going to be the more active region, since the fields of opposite polarity are in closer proximity, are very strong, and share a boundary covering at least 20 degs of latitude.

i dont really see what you describe.

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3 hours ago, Orneno said:

This spot was classed as beta-delta but I don’t see a delta 

It is difficult to see, but by overlaying Magnetogram and Intensitygram I could convince myself it is there (in the right-hand penumbra). I've put the overlaid image beside the original Magnetogram to make comparison easier.

502898994_Delta3153_dec02_2022.jpg.7b02886adc020b891f7a9fc8c48ba318.jpg

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To know for certain, we'd need to see the detailed worksheet / workup.

1) Which HMI imagery is used to determine polarity, colorized or black and white?  

2) How is "same penumbra or "same penumbral area" determined and drawn?

3) Which are the individual sunspots in AR group being evaluated?  Is that really a delta sunspot or just a delta pore that should not be considered?

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17 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

It is difficult to see, but by overlaying Magnetogram and Intensitygram I could convince myself it is there (in the right-hand penumbra). I've put the overlaid image beside the original Magnetogram to make comparison easier.

502898994_Delta3153_dec02_2022.jpg.7b02886adc020b891f7a9fc8c48ba318.jpg

it looks like what @Philalethes Bythoscalled a phantom penumbra rather than a delta

9 hours ago, Orneno said:

Yes, at the moment it doesn’t look flare-y, the polarities are cleanly separated. But it’s growing fast, so this could change 

it barely changed all day to me

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5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

it looks like what @Philalethes Bythoscalled a phantom penumbra rather than a delta

I believe the term is "orphan penumbra" (I mean, both words share "phan", over 50% of both words), but I must admit I still don't know if it applies in these cases, or whether it's only meant to refer to penumbrae that appear completely on their own instead of near umbrae of opposite polarities; if the latter is the case, then I guess a term of its own would be in order to describe these ones. I guess some more reading on the topic is in order whenever I get around to it.

As for this region, I don't see any delta as of yet personally.

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7 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

 

As for this region, I don't see any delta as of yet personally.

I absolutely agree and Noaa walked back the X-Class Flare chance too - but still considers and mentions it as Beta Delta in their Forecast Discussion updated 15mins ago.

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