MinYoongi Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Hey THe ASSA Algorythm says 3141 is beta gamma delta. personally i dont see a delta, and i dont see activity indicating a delta. what do you guys say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 No delta 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 10 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: No delta 😉 thanks to me its just weird that the AI from ASSA flags it as BGD. Saw this happen a few times already. looking at the magnetogram i dont even see gamma cuz theres no mixing and activity going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 6 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei: thanks to me its just weird that the AI from ASSA flags it as BGD. Saw this happen a few times already. Not weird, the region was just still close to the limb and automatic magnetic classification has a higher probability of being wrong due to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 I definitely don't see any delta either. There's a positive penumbra clinging to the negative umbra, but that does not a delta make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 Its getting more intermixed, right? Long duration C Class Flare now. 3 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: I definitely don't see any delta either. There's a positive penumbra clinging to the negative umbra, but that does not a delta make. Thank you ! Those ai's cant be trusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Woah surprise moderate M flare 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The hell. That came out of nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 A nice velocity on that type II from this, 900km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) M5 I knew this sunspot was going to do this a lot of small spots near the cores. Hopefully we get more flares for us. Edited November 7, 2022 by SpaceWeather5464 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Now is probably too early to tell if there's an associated CME, right? The Type II's low velocity makes me think it won't have one, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Bedreamon said: Now is probably too early to tell if there's an associated CME, right? The Type II's low velocity makes me think it won't have one, but who knows. Someone reported on the other thread that the CME is already visible in some imagery (maybe GOES loops?). Also, the Type II had a high velocity, not a low one (900 and change km/s). We need to wait for LASCO to confirm, but it’s looking like it did launch a CME, and probably a substantial or at least fast one. Edited November 7, 2022 by Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, mozy said: Woah surprise moderate M flare Isnt the region complex? Why surprised? 1 hour ago, Orneno said: A nice velocity on that type II from this, 900km/s yes! 10 minutes ago, Orneno said: Someone reported on the other thread that the CME is already visible in some imagery (maybe GOES loops?). Also, the Type II had a high velocity, not a low one (900 and change km/s). We need to wait for LASCO to confirm, but it’s looking like it did launch a CME, and probably a substantial or at least fast one. Is it earth directed? partially, glancing blow? because when i look at suvi it seems to snap to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Isnt the region complex? Why surprised? It didn’t look complex enough for an upper-M level flare to me, but surprises happen. 38 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Is it earth directed? partially, glancing blow? We need LASCO to tell. However, given the AR’s location, any Earth impact would be highly unlikely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 The Region is complexifying and growing. what do you guys say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Orneno said: It didn’t look complex enough for an upper-M level flare to me, but surprises happen. We need LASCO to tell. However, given the AR’s location, any Earth impact would be highly unlikely. How do you determine using AR location if an earth impact would be likely or unlikely. Newbie question for sure. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 uur geleden, RajSim zei: How do you determine using AR location if an earth impact would be likely or unlikely. Newbie question for sure. thanks. Please read the article in our help section on the app/site “how do we know if a CME is Earth directed and when it’s going to arrive” 3 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei: The Region is complexifying and growing. what do you guys say? Growing: yes. Complexity: nope, sweet Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Growing: yes. Complexity: nope, sweet Beta Why the 5% X chance then? Is there not even some intermixing for Gamma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 55 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Why the 5% X chance then? Is there not even some intermixing for Gamma? Likely because of the impulsive M5. But it doesn’t look complex (still beta) so odds are very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) And now a slow flare/long duration C3 from this region Edited November 7, 2022 by Orneno 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: But it doesn’t look complex (still beta) so odds are very low. Okay, to me this part here : looked "gamma" because there are polarities intermixed. @Philalethes Bythos your opinion? finally an AR we can talk about again. also, it seems to still be growing by the way, the big blue blob got darker in its core in the last 2-3 hours again, does that mean more shear/stronger magnetic field/ more strength? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Beta because it’s still easy to draw a line between the two polarities 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Hey guys I just had a question about this tweet from Sara Housseal Now she says it could be troublesome but I don’t know why she’s jumping to that conclusion. Even if she only means some space launches could have trouble its only a beta with an impulsive M5 to its name so I don’t know why she singled it out like that. Any thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tormentius said: so I don’t know why she singled it out like that. Any thoughts? She's just looking for attention. It's not dangerous. Exaggerating danger is a very effective way to get traffic. Note how it worked to get your interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Orneno said: She's just looking for attention. It's not dangerous. Exaggerating danger is a very effective way to get traffic. Note how it worked to get your interaction. Please dont jump to conclusions. Sara is a dear friend of mine and she has a tiktok channel dedicated against sun related fearmongering. She is working for the Airforce as a Spaceweather Forecaster and therefore just means this AR could be an active "troublemaker" making her job stressful. Not actually troublesome for random people or technology on ground. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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