IlikeAuroras Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 After AR3112 gave us an amazing entry, and AR3110 giving us the first X-flare in months, the sun is giving us a break on solar activity. With the exit of regions 3112, 3116 and 3119, this could be the 2nd spotless day of the year! Some exceptions include: Region 3121 becomes stronger overtime; Incoming regions coming in early; A possible new sunspot region southwest of the sun; AR3119 exiting the region later than usual; We shall wait and see as the sun calms down, possibly for the last time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IlikeAuroras said: After AR3112 gave us an amazing entry, and AR3110 giving us the first X-flare in months, the sun is giving us a break on solar activity. With the exit of regions 3112, 3116 and 3119, this could be the 2nd spotless day of the year! Some exceptions include: Region 3121 becomes stronger overtime; Incoming regions coming in early; A possible new sunspot region southwest of the sun; AR3119 exiting the region later than usual; We shall wait and see as the sun calms down, possibly for the last time. To me the southwest region looks brighter than 3121. Maybe it will develop at least one spot and save us from spotlessness! I’d appreciate it if we didn’t have a spotless day until next solar minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, Orneno said: I’d appreciate it if we didn’t have a spotless day until next solar minimum. Haha Orneno we can all wish can't we? Remember the SFI is still relatively high which means activity is probably bubbling just under the surface and background flux around B7. Are we hurtling or plodding towards Solar Max? N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 9 hours ago, Newbie said: Are we hurtling or plodding towards Solar Max? But let’s hope more of the former! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Orneno said: But let’s hope more of the former! The sun will decide.... deciding.... Well we´ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Won't be for too long some big sunspots are coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maurizio Marsigli Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Today, 10.00 UTC Lunt 50 double stack: 1 spot to the east, slightly diagonally to the south from 3119, 2 spots further east, again slightly diagonally to the south. 3121 disappeared. Various plages to the south, large filaments and prominences. Spotless risk in the coming days. https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2384-incoming-regions/?do=findComment&comment=27126 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Huh Maybe we will have a spotless day. Maybe if we keep saying that we will jinx it 🤣 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 This is the same conversation I keep seeing every 3 or 4 weeks since April and May…. I think a spotless day is possible, but not likely. If it’s gonna happen, it better happen quick cause we are gonna be seeing a lot of action very soon! Like they say in Jamaica man, soon come… lol Really though, that’s the way it seems it has been. Chicken one day, feathers the next! And then more chicken the day after that! I think it would be interesting to see the sun completely devoid of spots, in H-alpha. See what’s going on without spots… So, I’ll be happy either way, but we don’t have real good weather until Tuesday, so I’m putting my money there! Hopefully, something will be around the limb by then! Cheers. WnA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Hey 3124 just showed up. must’ve heard our complaints. popped off a high end B so far….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: Hey 3124 just showed up. must’ve heard our complaints. popped off a high end B so far….. Yep we jinxed it. No more spotlessness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Phew! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 From the SWL news story about the X1.0 on October 3rd. Ya really jinxed us @Marcel de Bont@Vancanneyt Sander! 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 (edited) There is a metric called Thermosphere Climate Index, it's currently at 16.99. It's the highest value it has been since last solar max. TCI is a number NASA publishes every day to keep track of the temperature at the top of Earth’s atmosphere–a layer of gas, researchers call “the thermosphere.” At the moment it is considered neutral neither hot nor cold, but is has been steadily increasing. It is a sign that the Sun continues to increase its activity. "TCI is based on measurements from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas up there. Although SABER has been in orbit for only 17 years, Mlynczak and colleagues recently calculated TCI going all the way back to the 1940s. “SABER taught us to do this by revealing how TCI depends on other variables such as geomagnetic activity and the sun’s UV output–things that have been measured for decades,” he explains " T.Phillips Spaceweather.com Ranges: Max 49.4 x10^10 W Hot 1957 Min 2.05 x 10^10 W Cold 2009 N. Edited October 17, 2022 by Newbie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 On 10/16/2022 at 9:59 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said: Yep we jinxed it. No more spotlessness Hiya SFT, Not so fast there… I may have jinxed not having a spotless day. I believe that we could have a spotless day tomorrow (jinxed!,K?). It would be interesting to see as I mentioned before! Cheers LnA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 5 hours ago, WildWill said: Hiya SFT, Not so fast there… I may have jinxed not having a spotless day. I believe that we could have a spotless day tomorrow (jinxed!,K?). It would be interesting to see as I mentioned before! Cheers LnA Nah, I think you jinxed it. 😂 Wait… we could prevent solar minimum from happening 😂 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Nah, I think you jinxed it. 😂 Wait… we could prevent solar minimum from happening 😂 👀 Lol good luck SFT200 N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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