Jump to content
CMEs and geomagnetic storming ×

Possible 2nd spotless day of 2022?


IlikeAuroras

Recommended Posts

After AR3112 gave us an amazing entry, and AR3110 giving us the first X-flare in months, the sun is giving us a break on solar activity. With the exit of regions 3112, 3116 and 3119, this could be the 2nd spotless day of the year!

Some exceptions include:

Region 3121 becomes stronger overtime;

Incoming regions coming in early;

A possible new sunspot region southwest of the sun;

AR3119 exiting the region later than usual;

We shall wait and see as the sun calms down, possibly for the last time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, IlikeAuroras said:

After AR3112 gave us an amazing entry, and AR3110 giving us the first X-flare in months, the sun is giving us a break on solar activity. With the exit of regions 3112, 3116 and 3119, this could be the 2nd spotless day of the year!

Some exceptions include:

Region 3121 becomes stronger overtime;

Incoming regions coming in early;

A possible new sunspot region southwest of the sun;

AR3119 exiting the region later than usual;

We shall wait and see as the sun calms down, possibly for the last time.

To me the southwest region looks brighter than 3121. Maybe it will develop at least one spot and save us from spotlessness! 

I’d appreciate it if we didn’t have a spotless day until next solar minimum. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I’d appreciate it if we didn’t have a spotless day until next solar minimum. 

Haha Orneno we can all wish can't we? Remember the SFI is still relatively high which means activity is probably bubbling just under the surface and background flux around B7. Are we hurtling or plodding towards Solar Max? 

N.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today, 10.00 UTC Lunt 50 double stack: 1 spot to the east, slightly diagonally to the south from 3119, 2 spots further east, again slightly diagonally to the south. 3121 disappeared. Various plages to the south, large filaments and prominences. Spotless risk in the coming days.
 
https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2384-incoming-regions/?do=findComment&comment=27126

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the same conversation I keep seeing every 3 or 4 weeks since April and May…. I think a spotless day is possible, but not likely.  If it’s gonna happen, it better happen quick cause we are gonna be seeing a lot of action very soon! Like they say in Jamaica man, soon come… lol 

Really though, that’s the way it seems it has been. Chicken one day, feathers the next! And then more chicken the day after that! 
 

I think it would be interesting to see the sun completely devoid of spots, in H-alpha. See what’s going on without spots… 

So, I’ll be happy either way, but we don’t have real good weather until Tuesday, so I’m putting my money there! Hopefully, something will be around the limb by then!
 

Cheers.

 

WnA

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a metric called Thermosphere Climate Index, it's currently at 16.99. It's the highest value it has been since last solar max.  TCI is a number NASA publishes every day to keep track of the temperature at the top of Earth’s atmosphere–a layer of gas, researchers call “the thermosphere.” At the moment it is considered neutral neither hot nor cold, but is has been steadily increasing. It is a sign that the Sun continues to increase its activity. 

"TCI is based on measurements from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas up there.

Although SABER has been in orbit for only 17 years, Mlynczak and colleagues recently calculated TCI going all the way back to the 1940s. “SABER taught us to do this by revealing how TCI depends on other variables such as geomagnetic activity and the sun’s UV output–things that have been measured for decades,” he explains " T.Phillips Spaceweather.com

Ranges:

Max 49.4 x10^10 W Hot 1957

Min 2.05 x 10^10 W Cold 2009

N.

Edited by Newbie
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/16/2022 at 9:59 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Yep we jinxed it. No more spotlessness 

Hiya SFT,

Not so fast there… I may have jinxed not having a spotless day. I believe that we could have a spotless day tomorrow (jinxed!,K?). It would be interesting to see as I mentioned before! 
 

Cheers

LnA

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, WildWill said:

Hiya SFT,

Not so fast there… I may have jinxed not having a spotless day. I believe that we could have a spotless day tomorrow (jinxed!,K?). It would be interesting to see as I mentioned before! 
 

Cheers

LnA

Nah, I think you jinxed it. 😂 

Wait… we could prevent solar minimum from happening 😂 👀 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.