Outgoing Regions and Those Around the Limb

[Genie]

and is there a different process for using helioseismology to study large sunspot groups that haven't yet come around the east limb....like the new one waiting to greet us?

[Philalethes]

On 11/25/2022 at 3:42 PM, Genie said:

and is there a different process for using helioseismology to study large sunspot groups that haven't yet come around the east limb....like the new one waiting to greet us?

From what I know, other than imagery from satellites on the far side, what is used is something called helioseismic holography, whereby measures of magnetic waves on the surface are used to construct an image of what the activity must be like on the far side for the waves to appear as they do; there are numerous papers in the literature on this topic and methods to do it as well as possible. GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group) consists of six identical telescopes worldwide interspersed across longitudes to have a continuous view of Sol, and specializes in helioseismology; they offer farside imagery based on such methods here. I believe something similar also exists for dopplergram data from HMI, but I couldn't find it.

As you can see from that last site, this is what their latest estimate as of posting this looks like:

Those areas circled in red are regions are what they estimate to be active regions with a 70% or higher chance of appearing on the near side. As they describe on the page explaining the map:

Quote

Only candidates with a probability of 70% or higher to appear in the front side are highlighted in red (please, note that sometimes, due to low duty cycle, false candidates will appear, these will not be highlighted as candidates).

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[3gMike]

On 11/25/2022 at 2:42 PM, Genie said:

and is there a different process for using helioseismology to study large sunspot groups that haven't yet come around the east limb....like the new one waiting to greet us?

You can gain some understanding of what might be approaching by combining data from different sources. For example, you might compare the farside image at  http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/ with a magnetogram from WSO.

Todays farside image (based on helioseismology) looks like this

It suggests one very large area of activity, but if you compare this with the WSO magnetogram, actually captured while the area was earthside (10th Nov), you can see that it is made up of multiple regions, and you also gain some understanding of variations in magnetic field strength.

If you then compare the most likely location (Carrington 315, latitude N15) with data on http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13141 you can see this is the same area that produced AR3141 on the last rotation.

[Genie]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:21 PM, 3gMike said:

It suggests one very large area of activity, but if you compare this with the WSO magnetogram, actually captured while the area was earthside (10th Nov), you can see that it is made up of multiple regions, and you also gain some understanding of variations in magnetic field strength.

If you then compare the most likely location (Carrington 315, latitude N15) with data on http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13141 you can see this is the same area that produced AR3141 on the last rotation.

10NOV2022 ARS 3141 next time 'round ID'd as

30NOV2022 ARS 3153 @  location (Carrington 315, latitude N15)

is there an historical data table of  sequential events at recurring positions?

such as the original carrington event and its antipode

and its flare major earth impact component

any trends?

 

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Genie said:

10NOV2022 ARS 3141 next time 'round ID'd as

30NOV2022 ARS 3153 @  location (Carrington 315, latitude N15)

is there an historical data table of  sequential events at recurring positions?

I am not aware of any sources specifically intended to identify recurring events. I tend to use the archive of sunspots here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2022/12/01/dayobs.html ( it allows to skip back to previous rotation) along with Helio HEC http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13153, which gives me the Carrington coordinates.

The magnetic fields can remain relatively static over more than one rotation, so in the case of AR3153 (Carrington 329, latitude S19) there was nothing in this zone on the last rotation, but if you go back to the rotation before that you will find AR3124 at Carrington 325, latitude S33. That is obviously not an exact match, but the magnetic fields in that zone are aligned N-S so the spots are probably linked. However, I'm not sure if it could be properly defined as a recurring spot.

We are just beginning to see a spot in the Northern Hemisphere (on the East Limb. SWPC have labelled it AR3156 on the latest Synoptic Map. That is almost certainly linked to AR 3140 or AR3141 - probably more likely AR3140 as that region was still growing when it left the West limb. There was a similarly placed spot in the rotation before last, labelled AR3122.

[mesmerising]

Not sure what this is or if it belongs here , navigfating were to post isnt user friendly for those of us new to techologuy. anyway here is the screen shot since it also wont allow me to upload a GIF becauuse they wish it compressed to 200km almost impossible . ENjoy the picture catch it on the GOES beforwe it gone