Outgoing Regions and Those Around the Limb

[WildWill]

Howdy All Y'all,

I was just checking out LASCO and at 15:30 (on C2)  there appears to be a CME in progress around the West Limb!

At 18:36, C3 shows something happening on the West Limb. I don't see any real flux, an M1.2 about an hour or so ago... 

Never saw it live on LASCO before. This is pretty cool. 116* wide, very visible. There have been a number of CMEs today and yesterday, but all 30* or less wide. This is much cooler.

Check it out and let me know what ya think! I hope the earth isn't gonna end today! (Kidding here... 🙂)

Have ya a nice day!

WW

& Babba O'Riley !

Edited September 23, 2022 by WildWill

[Sam Warfel]

Yes, it was a very pretty CME! We also got Type II and type IV radio emissions from it (the first of two rounds today, the second was from the M1 slow flare on the NE limb).  We didn’t see the flares that caused it, they must have been completely eclipsed. 
It didn’t look like a filament eruption type CME. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Orneno

[WildWill]

10 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Yes, it was a very pretty CME! We also got Type II and type IV radio emissions from it (the first of two rounds today, the second was from the M1 slow flare on the NE limb).  We didn’t see the flares that caused it, they must have been completely eclipsed. 
It didn’t look like a filament eruption type CME. 

Hi Orneno,

if you check out LASCO C3, you can see several small ones on the NE limb

Larry

(WW)

Edited September 23, 2022 by WildWill

[Newbie]

The cause of CME was a filament eruption around AR13102. It produced a Type IV radio burst, unfortunately it is directed to the west and off the Sun -Earth line. 

N.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Yes, it was a very pretty CME! We also got Type II and type IV radio emissions from it (the first of two rounds today, the second was from the M1 slow flare on the NE limb).  We didn’t see the flares that caused it, they must have been completely eclipsed. 
It didn’t look like a filament eruption type CME. 

it was a filöament eruption dear, not eclipsed. i even got some eyecandy for you!

 

[Sam Warfel]

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

it was a filöament eruption dear, not eclipsed. i even got some eyecandy for you!

 

My mistake, thank you for setting me straight!

[WildWill]

Howdy All Y'all!

While AR13141 has lost some of its luster, AR13140 seems to have redeveloped somewhat and has kicked out a few nice flares... they've also kept the c-ray flux in the C range - always nice. 
 

On the bright side of things, a lot of the SDO images show something kickin it just around the limb...

I wonder what the rest of the week will bring. I think I can get out tomorrow and Thursday. I'm looking forward to checking those as they approach the limb  as well as the stuff coming in from the SE limb!

Anyone taking odds on an X Class Flare??

All y'all have a good __________. (Fill in the blank for where ever you live!

WnA

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, WildWill said:

On the bright side of things, a lot of the SDO images show something kickin it just around the limb...

I wonder what the rest of the week will bring. I think I can get out tomorrow and Thursday. I'm looking forward to checking those as they approach the limb  as well as the stuff coming in from the SE limb!

Hi Will, There is now a Beta spot showing on the East Limb, at around 10 degrees Latitude in the Southern Hemisphere. I'm not convinced that there is much more to follow that in the next few days.

On a more positive note, the 30 day average value of 10.7cm flux has been climbing for a while now and is currently as high as it has ever been during this cycle. Another thing that I spotted recently is that although sunspot numbers remain low we have seen an exceptional number of flares this year. Take a look at the flare numbers on the Solar Cycle page https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html. The number of flares relative to number of sunspots is much higher than any other period in cycles 23 and 24. I am not entirely sure why that should be, or if it will continue - but might be worth watching.

I hope that you have some good viewing.

[Sam Warfel]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Will, There is now a Beta spot showing on the East Limb, at around 10 degrees Latitude in the Southern Hemisphere. I'm not convinced that there is much more to follow that in the next few days.

On a more positive note, the 30 day average value of 10.7cm flux has been climbing for a while now and is currently as high as it has ever been during this cycle. Another thing that I spotted recently is that although sunspot numbers remain low we have seen an exceptional number of flares this year. Take a look at the flare numbers on the Solar Cycle page https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html. The number of flares relative to number of sunspots is much higher than any other period in cycles 23 and 24. I am not entirely sure why that should be, or if it will continue - but might be worth watching.

I hope that you have some good viewing.

Interesting insight about the disproportionate flare to sunspot number! 
Anyone wanna do some research and get published? 😂

[Drax Spacex]

6 hours ago, Orneno said:

Interesting insight about the disproportionate flare to sunspot number! 
Anyone wanna do some research and get published? 😂

Enticing.  What's the current salary range for an unpublished amateur solar physics researcher?

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

Enticing.  What's the current salary range for an unpublished amateur solar physics researcher?

Do it because you enjoy it

[WildWill]

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Will, There is now a Beta spot showing on the East Limb, at around 10 degrees Latitude in the Southern Hemisphere. I'm not convinced that there is much more to follow that in the next few days.

On a more positive note, the 30 day average value of 10.7cm flux has been climbing for a while now and is currently as high as it has ever been during this cycle. Another thing that I spotted recently is that although sunspot numbers remain low we have seen an exceptional number of flares this year. Take a look at the flare numbers on the Solar Cycle page https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html. The number of flares relative to number of sunspots is much higher than any other period in cycles 23 and 24. I am not entirely sure why that should be, or if it will continue - but might be worth watching.

I hope that you have some good viewing.

Hi Mike, I've been looking at SOHO (LASCO) and SDO and what I see is a really bright NW limb (where we have 14140, 13141 & 13145 exiting over the limb. Meanwhile, the SE limb has. Been firing off a few days now. It appears to be kicking it a bit harder that those exiting the NW. 

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that sure looks like Min's anemone making its 4+ appearance in the last few months. I believe the date is right.

That would make the bright Region on the East of the coronal hole, the return of the remnants of AR13089... which was often a good looker but not a great performer.., lol 

 

Cheers!

WnA

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

Hi Mike, I've been looking at SOHO (LASCO) and SDO and what I see is a really bright NW limb (where we have 14140, 13141 & 13145 exiting over the limb. Meanwhile, the SE limb has. Been firing off a few days now. It appears to be kicking it a bit harder that those exiting the NW. 

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that sure looks like Min's anemone making its 4+ appearance in the last few months. I believe the date is right.

That would make the bright Region on the East of the coronal hole, the return of the remnants of AR13089... which was often a good looker but not a great performer.., lol 

 

Cheers!

WnA

Hi WW, The apparent brightness on the East limb has misled us in the past, but let's hope something good is approaching. I think your judgement concerning AR13089 is correct - see synoptic maps from Aug 26th and today (below). If you double click on the image you will be able to view it at higher resolution.

Edited November 16, 2022 by 3gMike
Instruction re image resolution

[WildWill]

37 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Do it because you enjoy it

you should always have a job you love, otherwise you just won't excel. If you are fortunate enough to be doing work that you love, they should pay you more cause yours gonna do a much better job than someone who doesn't like their work...

Life is way too short! 
I think they outta double your current salary just because you'll be so "into" it! 
 

Gig'em

WnA

[Drax Spacex]

On 11/16/2022 at 4:13 AM, 3gMike said:

Another thing that I spotted recently is that although sunspot numbers remain low we have seen an exceptional number of flares this year. Take a look at the flare numbers on the Solar Cycle page https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html. The number of flares relative to number of sunspots is much higher than any other period in cycles 23 and 24. I am not entirely sure why that should be, or if it will continue - but might be worth watching.

And we've still got another month and half for the 2022 bar for flare numbers to go even higher!

[3gMike]

18 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

And we've still got another month and half for the 2022 bar for flare numbers to go even higher!

Yes, looking at the number of flares to date during November, and assuming December behaves similarly, we might have another 250 to 300 flares by year end. That would give us a total around 2100. Who knows what will happen to number of sunspots ?

[Newbie]

On 11/17/2022 at 8:50 AM, WildWill said:

Hi Mike, I've been looking at SOHO (LASCO) and SDO and what I see is a really bright NW limb (where we have 14140, 13141 & 13145 exiting over the limb. Meanwhile, the SE limb has. Been firing off a few days now. It appears to be kicking it a bit harder that those exiting the NW. 

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that sure looks like Min's anemone making its 4+ appearance in the last few months. I believe the date is right.

That would make the bright Region on the East of the coronal hole, the return of the remnants of AR13089... which was often a good looker but not a great performer.., lol 

 

Cheers!

WnA

Maybe the hole is getting so big it will swallow the Sun itself!

Ok guys I am just kidding, just kidding!  😄😄

N.

[Drax Spacex]

On 11/18/2022 at 7:49 PM, Newbie said:

Maybe the hole is getting so big it will swallow the Sun itself!

Ok guys I am just kidding, just kidding!  😄😄

N.

Been there, done that... 🌞

https://youtu.be/38EDhpxzn2g

[Newbie]

6 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

Been there, done that... 🌞

https://youtu.be/38EDhpxzn2g

Hahaha isn't there anything new under, over or inside the sun?

N.

[Drax Spacex]

Eccactly!

All of the current sunspots have a magnetic classification of beta.  But not all betas are alike.  Outgoing region AR3150 for example has the highest flare probability (50/10/1/1) in the current synoptic map.  Why is that?

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

Eccactly!

All of the current sunspots have a magnetic classification of beta.  But not all betas are alike.  Outgoing region AR3150 for example has the highest flare probability (50/10/1/1) in the current synoptic map.  Why is that?

A comparison of the magnetic configuration of ARs 3149 and 3150 may offer some clues

   

AR3149 has the boundary between polarities aligned nominally EW, and the spots are fairly well separated.

 

AR3150 has the boundary between polarities nominally NS (more shear potential?) and the spots are closer together.

I suspect that SWPC use a more sophisticated method, but I have not seen it defined anywhere. 

[NEAurora]

3149 definitely looks worth keeping an eye on as it moves into a more geoeffective position.  It’s been evolving rapidly over the last day, and seems to be experiencing significant growth.  It’s size, number, and classification have all increased substantially over the last day.  While there doesn’t seem to be anything magnetically special about it at the moment, that could change if this rate of growth continues.

… or maybe I’m wish-casting … 🤷‍♂️

[WildWill]

On 11/20/2022 at 5:38 PM, 3gMike said:

A comparison of the magnetic configuration of ARs 3149 and 3150 may offer some clues

   

AR3149 has the boundary between polarities aligned nominally EW, and the spots are fairly well separated.

 

AR3150 has the boundary between polarities nominally NS (more shear potential?) and the spots are closer together.

I suspect that SWPC use a more sophisticated method, but I have not seen it defined anywhere. 

I want to point out again, that AR13150 is too far out on the limb for accurate magnetic classification. Images at this angle on the limb can have quite a few features which are not necessarily seen, while others may appear much different when viewed closer to the center.  Thus, gotta take the features and magnetic classification of 13150 with a grain of salt.

If we look at any AR on the sun (imagine you have a 3D image).  At any given point, we can define a normal vector, Additionally, we can define a vector which points towards the earth. We can readily see tha center sun, the normal and earth pointing vector are both pointing at the earth. As we move away from the center of the sun, until, at the limb, the angle between the normal vector and earth pointing toward earth are 90* apart - and ya can’t really see anything in detail enough to make any classification.  Your best views are gonna be between 0 and 30*, and deteriorates from there. Beyond 60* / 70* longitude (+/-). It becomes nearly impossible to make accurate  magnetic classification.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the colorized magnetogram provides a flat image. Not only are length and with different as our view moves more towards the limb, but, some of the magnetic feature may not be on the surface, but rather in the chromosphere above - like filaments. So, the Intensitygram can be misleading if you don’t keep these considerations in mind!
 

Hope that Helps!

 

WnA

[Drax Spacex]

When sunspots first rotate into view from the east limb, SWPC typically waits at least 1 day to assign a magnetic classification.  1 day~=13°, so the sunspot group is already at E77 by that time.  Foreshortening is factor as is not being able to see trailing sunspots of an AR.  I agree with 3gMike that the complete criteria SWPC uses to determine flare probability is not known.  In addition to magnetogram and white light image analysis, there may be factors such as recent flare activity from that AR.  And I'm okay if the analyst nudges the probabilities up or down a bit just based on their experience.

[WildWill]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:33 PM, Drax Spacex said:

When sunspots first rotate into view from the east limb, SWPC typically waits at least 1 day to assign a magnetic classification.  1 day~=13°, so the sunspot group is already at E77 by that time.  Foreshortening is factor as is not being able to see trailing sunspots of an AR.  I agree with 3gMike that the complete criteria SWPC uses to determine flare probability is not known.  In addition to magnetogram and white light image analysis, there may be factors such as recent flare activity from that AR.  And I'm okay if the analyst nudges the probabilities up or down a bit just based on their experience.

Howdy Drax,
Some good data points here. I have not gone through the SWPC process in detail. However, I have studied a number of “historical” processes, going back to Hale (George Hale discovered the magnetic nature of the sun). Hale and Michelson developed a classification process for the determination of magnetic configuration of ARs.  It was later modified in the 1960s to include the classification of Delta spots.

I do know that the processes and procedures used today were born of the process H&M developed. It was released in a paper in ~1919 and later revised it, 1925 or thereabouts. Google it and you’ll have more info than you can absorb in a month. Good stuff too.

I very much doubt that analysts are nudging data and/or probabilities. More likely, they tweak data and probabilities based upon a model of some sort. 

I do know that this process actually begins with all the data being captured /acquired by NASA and the USAF. The US Air Force are the guys who do a lot of the tedious work of classifying each little spot and pore with (+/-).  I’m not sure how much of the processing is actually done by NOAA. NOAA SWPC has a number of analysts and processes of their own, they are really more an aggregator and distributor of the data available from all the sources. NASA also has a team of solar analysts, at JSFC (Johnson Space Flight Center, here in Houston). They have responsibilities over protecting all the astronauts from magnetic storms in orbits where they don’t enjoy the protection of the earth’s magnetic field. 
 

NOAA has their own models they run as well. You can find the output of these prides on the data and products page. As I said earlier, I’ve looked at a number of these processes and methodologies, but I haven’t mapped out the processes from end to end.

The outputs of these processes are used by the Air Force and NASA and are considered “mission critical”, so I doubt that the NOAA data and products are “tweaked” by any experienced analyst. 

Ive been trying to find a way to get inside the Space Weather group at NASA here, but haven’t found the right door to open yet… if anyone has a friend of a friend… 😉

Hope this helps!

WnA

 

 

 

NEW POST:

—————————————————-

On 11/16/2022 at 4:54 PM, 3gMike said:

Hi WW, The apparent brightness on the East limb has misled us in the past, but let's hope something good is approaching. I think your judgement concerning AR13089 is correct - see synoptic maps from Aug 26th and today (below). If you double click on the image you will be able to view it at higher resolution.

Howdy Mike,

Once again, from the SE limb, we see all kinds of action firing off! It looks to have ejected a good deal of plasma over the last 3/4 days.

Its grabbed our attention a number of times, as you pointed out. Git all excited over something that never came…  It seems to me that this has been going on for a couple of revolutions. So, where is all this “action” coming from and why do we keep missing it? A lot of the time, it seems that we have all kinds of action on the SE and NW limbs. Looks like someone has their head cocked sideways and steam blowing out their ears! All angry and exciting looking, then… 

So, what’s next? Anything awaiting us from the East? Stay tuned… lol. 
 

Gig’em,

WnA

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by WildWill