AR 13088 The sunspot that keeps giving!

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Orneno said:

Has this been maybe the most active AR of this SC so far? I know we’ve had stronger flares (although according to solar orbiter this did give two X-class) but the sheer non-stop frequency of the M and upper M flares from this AR blew me away. 
Anyone know a good way to classify ARs according to “highest amount of decent flares”?

You mean other than laboriously trawling through the archive?😀

I found this rather good paper relating sunspot configuration, and phase of cycle, to types of flare generated https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/441/3/2208/1119893

[Newbie]

21 hours ago, 3gMike said:

You mean other than laboriously trawling through the archive?😀

I found this rather good paper relating sunspot configuration, and phase of cycle, to types of flare generated https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/441/3/2208/1119893

I found this excerpt particularly interesting from the above excellent paper 3gMike wrt Delta classification. 

The δ region included a penumbra enclosing umbrae of both positive and negative polarity. Atac (1987) studied the statistical relationship between sunspots and the major flares observed in the descending branch of the 20th and in the ascending branch of the 21st solar cycle. They found that the sunspots which produce major flares are of the type Dki or Eki with magnetic class δ and largest magnetic field strength between 1600 and 2500 G. Using magnetograms obtained by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at Huairou Observing Station, Shi & Wang (1994) studied all δ sunspots from 1986 to 1992 in solar cycle 22 and found that more than 95 per cent of X-class flares take place in active regions (ARs) of δ sunspots, while 23 per cent of δ sunspots are generators of X-class flares. Bornmann & Shaw (1994) used a multiple linear regression analysis to derive the effective solar flare contributions of each of the McIntosh classification parameters. Using 8 years of flare and sunspot records, Sammis, Frances & Harold (2000) studied the dependence of large flares’ occurrence on the magnetic structure of sunspots. They found that there is a general trend for large regions to produce large flares, but it is less significant than the dependence on magnetic class. They confirmed the close correlation between large flares and δ sunspots.

This ties in with the article on magnetic shear. The active region doesn't have to be particularly large to produce large flares, it has to be magnetically complex, a feature of delta spots.

There is ongoing conjecture about what constitutes a delta group. The classic definition of a delta is as from above:

Penumbra enclosing umbrae of both positive and negative polarity. In this instance shear would be at greatest and the area would be particularly active. Think X class flares. 

However we have seen deltas identified where the umbrae of negative and positive polarity are just touching or barely encroaching on each other. The shear in these instances would be considered weak and not particularly active. Think C flares and possible low to medium M class. 

I have also read where there has to be less than 2 degrees of separation between the opposite polarity umbrae. This would explain why the above example is considered delta. 

As the article mentions the magnetic classification most likely to produce strongest flares are Dki and Eki. These are the ones to look out for and from my own observations I would include Ekc and Fkc as well. 

Newbie

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Newbie said:

I found this excerpt particularly interesting from the above excellent paper 3gMike wrt Delta classification. 

The δ region included a penumbra enclosing umbrae of both positive and negative polarity. Atac (1987) studied the statistical relationship between sunspots and the major flares observed in the descending branch of the 20th and in the ascending branch of the 21st solar cycle. They found that the sunspots which produce major flares are of the type Dki or Eki with magnetic class δ and largest magnetic field strength between 1600 and 2500 G. Using magnetograms obtained by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at Huairou Observing Station, Shi & Wang (1994) studied all δ sunspots from 1986 to 1992 in solar cycle 22 and found that more than 95 per cent of X-class flares take place in active regions (ARs) of δ sunspots, while 23 per cent of δ sunspots are generators of X-class flares. Bornmann & Shaw (1994) used a multiple linear regression analysis to derive the effective solar flare contributions of each of the McIntosh classification parameters. Using 8 years of flare and sunspot records, Sammis, Frances & Harold (2000) studied the dependence of large flares’ occurrence on the magnetic structure of sunspots. They found that there is a general trend for large regions to produce large flares, but it is less significant than the dependence on magnetic class. They confirmed the close correlation between large flares and δ sunspots.

This ties in with the article on magnetic shear. The active region doesn't have to be particularly large to produce large flares, it has to be magnetically complex, a feature of delta spots.

There is ongoing conjecture about what constitutes a delta group. The classic definition of a delta is as from above:

Penumbra enclosing umbrae of both positive and negative polarity. In this instance shear would be at greatest and the area would be particularly active. Think X class flares. 

However we have seen deltas identified where the umbrae of negative and positive polarity are just touching or barely encroaching on each other. The shear in these instances would be considered weak and not particularly active. Think C flares and possible low to medium M class. 

I have also read where there has to be less than 2 degrees of separation between the opposite polarity umbrae. This would explain why the above example is considered delta. 

As the article mentions the magnetic classification most likely to produce strongest flares are Dki and Eki. These are the ones to look out for and from my own observations I would include Ekc and Fkc as well. 

Newbie

Yep, activity seems to be primarily a function of complexity and strength combined. It's telling that more than 95% of flares come from D (delta) regions, but that only 23% of such regions produce such flares. Ironically, 3089 seems so far to be one of the less complex delta groups, even though it's (rightfully in my opinion at this point) classified as a BGD group, and even Ekc; it does indeed seem like the latter, the McIntosh classification system, is more nuanced and has a bit more predictive power in any case. It also accounts to a certain degree for the strength of the spots, and as they also mention in the excerpt above, which I found interesting, there's a specific magnetic field strength to look out for; I did mention recently that such should definitely be taken into consideration if one wants to classify spots to predict activity, but it should of course be somewhat obvious that a tiny little delta that's barely touching and has no shear won't be producing the biggest flares compared to a couple of huge spots of different polarity getting smashed together (as seems e.g. to have been the case with 3088, where the spots in question seemed to share not only the same penumbra, but the same umbra as well).

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Newbie said:

I found this excerpt particularly interesting from the above excellent paper 3gMike wrt Delta classification. 

Yes, I found that interesting too.

A study of Table 1 reveals some more information:-

Of the 29,389 flares analysed only 0.96% were X flares - 88% of those X flares came from BGD regions, with the next most prolific being Gamma regions at 7.4%

Similarly, only 10.79% of the total were M class - 62% of those M flares came from BGD regions and 20% from Gamma regions.

By far the majority of flares are C class, representing 62.75% of total flares - 43% of those C flares from BGD regions, and 28% from Gamma regions.

So, when we talk about Delta regions producing flares, we need to recognise that most often means BGD

If I can find the time I may analyse flares produced so far in Cycle 25 to see how the numbers compare with this distribution.

[Newbie]

And still we are not done with this region in terms of activity.

ECHOES FROM A FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There is a sunspot on the farside of the sun so large it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Take a look at this helioseismic map. The large dark region is AR3088, last seen exiting the solar disk about a week ago. It is probably responsible for the major radiation storm yesterday.  (Spaceweather.com)

N.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Newbie
Image issues

[MinYoongi]

yeah its nice but i dont really appreciate spaceweather.com anymore. Sensationalism got a hold of them.

 

BTW: The sunspot is visible in Solar Orbiter EUV imagery  ! Like SDO, much better than those farside maps (theyre not really accurate) 

This is from the 6th early in the day

[Newbie]

Lol Min, It's just a little illustration of how 3088 still has what it takes. Let's hope it holds together till it returns.  😃

Nice image! 

N

[Solarflaretracker200]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

but i dont really appreciate spaceweather.com anymore

They are kinda annoying with how they talk about the farside sunspots. every time they act like it’s so big when it’s  not. Like how you said, Sensationalism did get a hold of them. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[3gMike]

8 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

This is from the 6th early in the day

Hi Min,

I can find lots of info about Solar Orbiter, but have not been able to find any current images. Are you able to provide a link please?

[MinYoongi]

11 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Min,

I can find lots of info about Solar Orbiter, but have not been able to find any current images. Are you able to provide a link please?

Dr adam finley on twitter is my source !

[WildWill]

On 8/29/2022 at 1:30 PM, Archmonoth said:

Now there is type 2 and type 4 radio emission, so probably a CME during the SDO offline. The SDO image has large loops in the bottom right (Southeast), so I am guessing 3088 was the source. 

 

Hi A,

I think you mean the southwest limb, below the equator in the right side of the disk. I know it's opposite of what we're used to, but East and west are flipped. So sunspots rise in the East and set in the west!

WnA

10 hours ago, Newbie said:

And still we are not done with this region in terms of activity.

ECHOES FROM A FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There is a sunspot on the farside of the sun so large it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Take a look at this helioseismic map. The large dark region is AR3088, last seen exiting the solar disk about a week ago. It is probably responsible for the major radiation storm yesterday.  (Spaceweather.com)

N.

 

 

it sure looks impressive. If ya take a look at LASCO, you'll see a lot of action on the south west limp. 
I think it has what it takes. 
This group formed very rapidly and has kicked ou a lot of flares! Still kickin it...

when it had just past the limb, it was kickin out flares left snd right!

this group was formed with one region atop the other, rather than leading snd following. Such regions are said to be very active, but rarely live more than one rotation of the sun. Unfortunately.

Even after it went around the limb, it was steady kicking out flares.

I believe this image came from Aug 30. At 30^ latitudes, it should return Sept 11, give or take 2 days. An ominous date...  

LnA

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, WildWill said:

Hi A,

I think you mean the southwest limb, below the equator in the right side of the disk. I know it's opposite of what we're used to, but East and west are flipped. So sunspots rise in the East and set in the west!

WnA

it sure looks impressive. If ya take a look at LASCO, you'll see a lot of action on the south west limp. 
I think it has what it takes. 
This group formed very rapidly and has kicked ou a lot of flares! Still kickin it...

when it had just past the limb, it was kickin out flares left snd right!

this group was formed with one region atop the other, rather than leading snd following. Such regions are said to be very active, but rarely live more than one rotation of the sun. Unfortunately.

Even after it went around the limb, it was steady kicking out flares.

I believe this image came from Aug 30. At 30^ latitudes, it should return Sept 11, give or take 2 days. An ominous date...  

LnA

Where did you read that they dont live long? I sadly tried to read up about such regions and didnt find anything 

[Solarflaretracker200]

7 hours ago, WildWill said:

Such regions are said to be very active, but rarely live more than one rotation of the sun. Unfortunately.

Actually we had a sunspot region that lasted three rotations (or two? I don’t exactly remember) around the sun. If I’m not mistaken, it was AR2975 or something like that. Boy that was a interesting sunspot 

[Archmonoth]

11 hours ago, WildWill said:

Hi A,

I think you mean the southwest limb, below the equator in the right side of the disk. I know it's opposite of what we're used to, but East and west are flipped. So sunspots rise in the East and set in the west!

 

Thanks for the correction, although it is ridiculous. 

 

I understand Stonyhurst heliographic coordinates have the directions flipped, but if you look at the rotation from the top down (Northpole) its counterclockwise and the sunspots head EASTWARD. 

 

I don't disagree with you, and it's cool to learn something new, but I was describing the location as it appears, which I think is less confusing. 

[Yak]

Who thinks 3088 will come back angrier than before?

[Sam Warfel]

24 minutes ago, Yak said:

Who thinks 3088 will come back angrier than before?

It may well not, but I sure want it to... I think odds are pretty balanced tbh

[Solarflaretracker200]

38 minutes ago, Yak said:

Who thinks 3088 will come back angrier than before?

Could happen or could not. All depends on how active it is. 

[3gMike]

7 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

I don't disagree with you, and it's cool to learn something new, but I was describing the location as it appears, which I think is less confusing. 

I suspect that several of us have struggled with the Stonyhurst coordinate system putting the West limb on the right hand side, but in fact it does make sense. It all depends on our point of view !

If you think about it, what we define as East and West on Earth is actually based on an external view of Earth putting East on the right. That indicates that an observer on the Sun would see East on the right.  If that observer then moved further away on the same line so that they were behind the Sun, and used the same classification, they would say that East was on the right of the Sun, so labelling of East and West is consistent for Sun and Earth. Since we look toward the Sun, we see West on the right.

[Archmonoth]

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I suspect that several of us have struggled with the Stonyhurst coordinate system putting the West limb on the right hand side, but in fact it does make sense. It all depends on our point of view !

Yeah, this sounds like the idea of handedness.  

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

If you think about it, what we define as East and West on Earth is actually based on an external view of Earth putting East on the right.

I think looking at the Sun counts as an external perspective of the Sun, just like how we define East/West with an external view of the Earth.

 

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Since we look toward the Sun, we see West on the right.

Wouldn't looking toward the Sun be the same kind of external view? I understand its flipped, but it's not an intuitive understanding. (To me

 

Anyways, I don't want to get too off topic, thanks for the explanation. It still feels strange to define east/west as something other than left/right when up (north pole) is the same reference point.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Archmonoth

[WildWill]

10 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I suspect that several of us have struggled with the Stonyhurst coordinate system putting the West limb on the right hand side, but in fact it does make sense. It all depends on our point of view !

If you think about it, what we define as East and West on Earth is actually based on an external view of Earth putting East on the right. That indicates that an observer on the Sun would see East on the right.  If that observer then moved further away on the same line so that they were behind the Sun, and used the same classification, they would say that East was on the right of the Sun, so labelling of East and West is consistent for Sun and Earth. Since we look toward the Sun, we see West on the right.

Howdy 3g, A, and all y’all!

3g, you’re in England I believe? My condolences on the death of the Queen. God save the King. 

Sorry guys.  If you stand on top of the moon and look at the earth, the east will be to the right, and thus, the west will be toward the left.

If you stand on top of the earth (North Pole) and look at the sun. The west will be to the right, the east is to the left. Bassackwards I know, but that’s the way it was done.

I think if you look at it this way, I think it’s a little less confusing. 

East and west were not defined by the view of earth from outer space. East and west were defined by the rising and setting of the sun at the equinox. The cardinal directions were around long before the concept of “outer space” existed.

instead of thinking of East and west being flipped, alternatively, you could say the north and south (geographic) poles are switched on the sun.

Both of the words East and West are derived from Latin. Ptolemy was known to have used the terms.

The word west is derived from the Latin root for setting, and East, similarly, is derived from the Latin root for “rising”.  It became more formalized with the definition of the prime meridian. Thus, East and west were defined by which way you traveled from the prime meridian and what direction you were from the prime meridian. It was also a cultural division as well as geographical from the beginning. East Germans were considered “easterners” in Roman Times. The Chinese, I believe had north and south reversed, I don’t know about East-west in Chinese history. I do know that the Huns had a saying: “Eyes to the East!”, the reason? Constant waves of peoples migrating westward from “the east” and they of course fought for new lands, etc… 

I do like history a lot. You might not be aware, but between the Huns (who were hardly the first people’s to migrate to the west, from the east and the Mongols, there were a great many migrations and wars with people’s migrating to the west from East Asia. Even in ancient times, the “east” could mean the direction or the lands in the east, like China”. 

Probably TMI. Sorry.

Sorry I’m   so dang long winded, got that from mu uncle, now he could take his time and use a lot of words, some of them used many times and as the hour passed, you began to wonder what started the conversation… and realize he’s talking about something totally unrelated to the subject at hand. That’s called “slow Texan wit a drawl”! You’d better have plenty of coffee and time if you wanted to talk to him… He passed a  dozen yeats ago… and he’s still working on his last sentence….

All Y’all have Ya a Great Day!

LnAK

PS: sun finally comes out and I’m a bit under the weather (pun intended). Two weeks of clouds! Hopefully we will have several sunny days, which we are of course supposed to have - and of course, the sun is pretty quiet at the moment. The luck of the Irish, if we didn’t have bad luck, we’d have no luck a’tall. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by WildWill
Typo

[WildWill]

3 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

Earth.

Dr A,

The whole point is that East snd west were not defined by a view from outer space or external as you call it.  Bit by the rising snd setting sun...

cheers

 

LnAK

17 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Could happen or could not. All depends on how active it is. 

Via the "Butterfly effect" who knows, it could pop of an x20 before moving to that great sunspot grave in the sky!

[Solarflaretracker200]

51 minutes ago, WildWill said:

it could pop of an x20 before moving to that great sunspot grave in the sky!

That’s possible, but that’s rare to happen. Like very rare. 

[WildWill]

On 9/7/2022 at 10:35 AM, MinYoongi said:

Where did you read that they dont live long? I sadly tried to read up about such regions and didnt find anything 

Hi Min,

I know there was some info about these types of spots on Prairie View A&M University website. I’ll have to do some digging to find some of the others. 
I think they are called perpendicular or vertical sunspots, because the magnetic polarities are aligned perpendicular to “yer average sunspot pair” - so the polarities are lined up vertically, stacked in two layers (or more), rather than one following the other. 

I’ll try to find some other references for you in the next day or two. There was lots of stuff readily available when 13088 popped up outta pretty much nowhere, center sun, just as 13089 was coming around the limb… but that was two weeks ago. 
 

I also recall some discussion about whether or not it was a “reverse polarity” sunspot group or not and what that meant and entailed. 
 

Before it was assigned a number at NOAA, someone had given it 3089 as they had already given 3088 to what NOAA assigned 3089 to. I believe NOAA assigns numbers to regions, which I think are assigned by the Air Force, once or twice a day. AR13088 grew from just about nothing, center sun as AR13089 was coming around the east limb. A day later it was beta-gamma-delta and just steady kickin out flares. I believe Newbie posted a list of flares to the AR13089 thread that I started. 
 

You can also Google vertical or perpendicular sunspots as well as reverse polarity sunspots. 

Hope this helps ya to explore some more… sorry I don’t have anything else on the top of my head right now… but it’s beeen a couple of weeks… I may have saved a couple of the articles, but my tablet isn’t very organized…lol. I’ll keep ya in mind though. 

I am looking forward to its return, which I believe, given its latitude and position on the limb Aug 30, would return Sept 11 +/- 2 days. I’m sure hoping it makes a full rev of the sun and then ends with a Big Bang, which’ll be pointed right at us at the time! 
I’ll go fer X11!

WnAK

Edited September 9, 2022 by WildWill

[WildWill]

2 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

That’s possible, but that’s rare to happen. Like very rare. 

Can we have optimism, please, optimism! 👍

it is a very rare sunspot, or so I hear… 😏

…and of course, what’s wrong with wishful thinking?? 😎

WnAK

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by WildWill

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 minutes ago, WildWill said:

Can we have optimism, please, optimism! 😏

Lmao but it’s true