Region 3085

[Philalethes]

Seems like this one has been growing considerably, and on the latest magnetograms it's also developing what could be hints of a delta or even a gamma-delta (in addition to being a beta). Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but seems like there could be some activity starting up there soon. Might be a bit too late for too much Earth-directed activity unless it starts within a few days, due to its position, but there's always a chance.

How it looks at the time of posting this:

Edited August 22, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos
include image

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Seems like this one has been growing considerably, and on the latest magnetograms it's also developing what could be hints of a delta or even a gamma-delta (in addition to being a beta). Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but seems like there could be some activity starting up there soon. Might be a bit too late for too much Earth-directed activity unless it starts within a few days, due to its position, but there's always a chance.

How it looks at the time of posting this:

Yes, I think it shows some promise. It tends to indicate that there has been some development in the magnetic fields in the northern hemisphere since this region was last observed by Wicox Solar Observatory towards the end of last month.

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, I think it shows some promise. It tends to indicate that there has been some development in the magnetic fields in the northern hemisphere since this region was last observed by Wicox Solar Observatory towards the end of last month.

Oh, so this is a recurring region?

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Oh, so this is a recurring region?

No. Apologies for any confusion. I was simply referring to that particular part of the sun - perhaps it would have been better to say zone.

To clarify the situation. AR3085 is centred on Carrington longitude 290. The whole zone of the northern hemisphere between Carrington 170 and Carrington 350 is currently shown as very low activity on the WSO synoptic map. However, you need to be aware that the last measurements were made between 24th and 30th July.

Unable to insert an image due to 5kB restriction.

Edited August 22, 2022 by 3gMike
Note re image

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

 

To clarify the situation. AR3085 is centred on Carrington longitude 290. The whole zone of the northern hemisphere between Carrington 170 and Carrington 350 is currently shown as very low activity on the WSO synoptic map.

 

Can you tell me more about this? Does that mean this Zone produces rather weak Sunspots or ?

[3gMike]

30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Can you tell me more about this? Does that mean this Zone produces rather weak Sunspots or ?

Yes, it would be very obvious if I could post an image. Here is a link which is correct at time of posting, but will show something different in future. http://wso.stanford.edu/SYNOP/prelim.pho.gif

If you observe the upper right hand sector you will see that there are virtually no organised or strong magnetic fields - compare with the other sectors.

The area in which AR3085 is located is the tiny rectangle at Carrington 290 and latitude 30N

Hope this helps.

[MinYoongi]

Cool! Thank you.

Did that maybe change?

[3gMike]

48 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Cool! Thank you.

Did that maybe change?

I suspect it has. We should be able to tell in a few days when the chart is updated.

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

I suspect it has. We should be able to tell in a few days when the chart is updated.

Is it updated monthly? Again, thank you for showing me the chart. I had never though about that.

[3gMike]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is it updated monthly? Again, thank you for showing me the chart. I had never though about that.

I think it is usually updated weekly. 

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is it updated monthly? Again, thank you for showing me the chart. I had never though about that.

I think it is usually updated weekly. 

https://gyazo.com/71484c479447b2a470bd56b8c556eb3d

Thanks for suggesting Gyazo link. That seems to work.🙂

Edited August 22, 2022 by 3gMike
Added image

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Seems like the small umbrae that seemed to be forming in the middle of the penumbrae have subsided for now, so it's back to just being a very clear beta. Would be consistent with the above, although it did grow quite rapidly, and even fired off some smaller flares today. Oh well, let's see how it turns out and/or wait for the next bout of interesting activity from our local star.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Seems like the small umbrae that seemed to be forming in the middle of the penumbrae have subsided for now, so it's back to just being a very clear beta. Would be consistent with the above, although it did grow quite rapidly, and even fired off some smaller flares today. Oh well, let's see how it turns out and/or wait for the next bout of interesting activity from our local star.

The Delta in the Middle died down very quickly. but in the last hour, something has been forming between the 2 big spots so maybe lets wait for that  This region slowed down with growth but still cool how it grew something new out of nowhere.

how long until its in a "unfavorable" position @Philalethes Bythos ?

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

The Delta in the Middle died down very quickly. but in the last hour, something has been forming between the 2 big spots so maybe lets wait for that  This region slowed down with growth but still cool how it grew something new out of nowhere.

how long until its in a "unfavorable" position @Philalethes Bythos ?

Yeah, there's still some activity there, but noticeably less. It did grow very fast indeed, that's definitely one thing to be on the lookout for, it'll be interesting when even larger and more complex ones come roiling out of nowhere.

As for how long until it's too far gone, it's pretty much dead center right now, already in a few days, 3-4, it will be facing in a direction that's not as promising for space weather, and a few more days before it's gone over the edge, during which days there would likely only be glancing blows at best. A not-so-quick calculation (which should have been quick, but ended up not being so due to my rusty trigonometry) tells me we see ~179.5 degrees worth of longitudinal lines from Earth (and SDO as well, its orbital altitude is negligible relative to 1 AU), which would correspond to ~14-15 days for a part of the observable disc to move from edge to edge around that latitude. I don't know exactly which latitude the sunspot is at, so given the differential rotation of Sol, it's hard to say precisely, but I'm assuming it's at around 30-40 degrees of latitude; if you have a good source that provides the latitude, let me know.  In general it's going to be rotating by 12-13 degrees of longitude per day at those latitudes, so in just 3-4 days it's already going to be situated at a ~45 degree angle relative to us, assuming it's currently at the central meridian.

EDIT: Not that it's ultimately that relevant, since 164 degrees and 180 degrees aren't that different in this context, but I think there's something wrong with my calculations there, I'd expect to be able to see more lines of longitude, approximating 180 degrees at that distance.

EDIT 2: Fixed the math, and indeed we see ~179.5 degrees of longitude rather than 164 degrees; in fact, now that I did the math, it was easy to calculate how close to Sol we would have to be to only see 164 degrees, which is ~4.28 million kilometers away, rather than the ~150 million kilometers we actually are.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos
fixed the math

[Solarflaretracker200]

Wasnt region 3085  yesterday more active? If so, I’m wondering why it isn’t. (I know I should  probably know this but I’ve forgotten stuff while I was gone for like two months or something 😂 )

Edited August 23, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[MinYoongi]

It was more active but decayed in some parts. New growth can be seen but we need to wait for more magnetic complexity.

[Newbie]

Unfortunately the weak delta dissipated a while back.

N.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Newbie
Spelling mistake (oh my gosh) LOL

[MinYoongi]

Can someone explain to me why noaa gives this region a 5% X chance but its only Beta?

Also only producing B class flares

[Newbie]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Can someone explain to me why noaa gives this region a 5% X chance but its only Beta?

Also only producing B class flares

I wondered the same thing, it has lost the weak delta. The number of spots increased. There may have been an expectation the delta would develop...having said that 5% isn't that great a chance of X flares. It had produced a lot of lower level C flares yesterday!  

N.

[3gMike]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Can someone explain to me why noaa gives this region a 5% X chance but its only Beta?

Also only producing B class flares

At the moment I am not certain what method NOAA use, but I found this interesting paper from Italian researchers

 https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2019/01/swsc190005/swsc190005.html

A portion of the abstract gives us some clues to the methodology

"Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological characteristics of the sunspot groups daily observed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF – Catania Astrophysical Observatory since January 2002 up today. By means of a linear combination of the flare rates computed on the base of some properties of the sunspot groups, like area, number of pores and sunspots, Zurich class, relative importance between leading spot and density of the sunspot population, and type of penumbra of the main sunspot, we determine the probability percentages that a flare of a particular energy range may occur. "

I would expect that NOAA operate on similar principles. The Zurich class of AR3085 has changed from DSO to DKI, and it has grown considerably, so perhaps that influenced the forecast. As ever we have to wait to see what actually happens.

[Newbie]

Sometimes when active regions grow the magnetic fields are pulled away from each other resulting in an overall weakening of the shear. Looking at 3085 I can't see how they arrived at their opinion. Certainly the magnetic fields of the beta spots have intensified, particularly the negative (blue) spot. According to Solen it has matured, whatever that means (finished growing I suppose) and is quiet. It produced a lot of C flares yesterday but only B flares today....and now SWPC is saying a slight chance of M flares, with no reference to X flares. Maybe enthusiastic optimists made the call or an exhuberant algorithm!

N.

Edit the blue spots are positive oops!

Edited August 24, 2022 by Newbie

[3gMike]

49 minutes ago, Newbie said:

...and now SWPC is saying a slight chance of M flares, with no reference to X flares. Maybe enthusiastic optimists made the call or an exhuberant algorithm!

Where are you finding that data? The current synoptic map (produced at 09:43) still shows 60% C, 15% M and 5% X

52 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Certainly the magnetic fields of the beta spots have intensified, particularly the negative (blue) spot

Isn't the blue spot positive?

[Philalethes]

There seems to be tendencies of a delta forming again, with the negative region to the right of the positive one. Perhaps that might have influenced the predictions, or perhaps some of the models mentioned earlier (computers are good at accounting for combinations of factors that are hard for humans to spot) could have seen that there was a certain chance for this development.

[Newbie]

 

54 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Where are you finding that data? The current synoptic map (produced at 09:43) still shows 60% C, 15% M and 5% X

Isn't the blue spot positive?

Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2022 Aug 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flares of the period, both C1, originated from the southern hemisphere near areas of spotless plage. Region 3085 (N25W08, Dki/beta) grew in area and produced isolated B-level enhancements. Region 3086 (S21E44, Cao/beta) underwent minor decay. Region 3087 (S15E65, Hax/alpha) consisted of a single, unipolar spot and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 24-26 Aug.

Hiya 3gMike, they don't update their percentages till the next reporting period I believe.

Yeah you are right 3gMike thanks for pointing it out.

In the colorized magnetogram overlay, yellow – red colors indicate negative polarity, and green – blue colors indicate positive polarity.

15 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

There seems to be tendencies of a delta forming again, with the negative region to the right of the positive one. Perhaps that might have influenced the predictions, or perhaps some of the models mentioned earlier (computers are good at accounting for combinations of factors that are hard for humans to spot) could have seen that there was a certain chance for this development.

Where do you see that in the latest image?

Edited August 24, 2022 by Newbie

[Solarflaretracker200]

Sooo from reading all of this, this is weakening?

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Where do you see that in the latest image?

The small negative region to the upper right of the large positive one, it's easier to see on the black and white image. I mean, there's no delta there now, since the penumbra clearly doesn't extend particularly far on that side, but it's closing in for a hug. Might be nothing and just fade away anyway.

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Sooo from reading all of this, this is weakening?

Probably. And unless something happens within a day or two, it likely won't matter much to Earth anyway.

I guess we'll be watching 3086 and 3087 in the more active south instead for now.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos