Region 3053

[MinYoongi]

Hello Everyone!

 

Region 3053 is beginning to show.

is the magnetic layout we can see to be trusted or do we have to wait a few more days due to it being on the limb? (If anyone could explain why the limb makes it hard to assign please let me know. i never found a proper explanation!) 

 

Is this a recurrent region?

[Marcel de Bont]

Too early to tell how its magnetic layout looks like.

Check question 7 https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/faq.html

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Too early to tell how its magnetic layout looks like.

Check question 7 https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/faq.html

Thanks alot 🙂 ! 
Theres one part that i dont fully get though : 
"due to projection effect as the polarity of sunspots seem to change near the limbs."
Do they really CHANGE or do they appear different on SDO Imagery so we cant accurately determine their polarity? Or is it a sun mechanism that they switch polaritys at the limbs?

[Marcel de Bont]

They appear to change, like an optical illusion.

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Hello Everyone!

 

Region 3053 is beginning to show.

is the magnetic layout we can see to be trusted or do we have to wait a few more days due to it being on the limb? (If anyone could explain why the limb makes it hard to assign please let me know. i never found a proper explanation!) 

 

Is this a recurrent region?

I've produced a sketch to try to show what is going on. It shows the Sun and Earth as if we were looking down on the Solar North pole. Due to the enormous difference in diameter of Sun and Earth, and the huge distance between them I could not draw to scale, so the location of Earth is really just indicating how we are positioned relative to the limbs.

The Carrington longitudes are based on the current synoptic map, and the red line marks the position of the farside zone half a day ago, so to be entirely accurate I should have adjusted the position by 6 or 7 degrees !

I hope that the drawing helps to make it clear why we struggle to see detail on the limb, but also how much more of the region is yet to come.

Yes, this is the recurrent region. But to be absolutely clear, I believe the region developed on the farside, and I suspect that what we are seeing turning into view is a new spot.

Edited July 5, 2022 by 3gMike
Clarification re current spot.

[WildWill]

On 7/5/2022 at 11:09 AM, 3gMike said:

I've produced a sketch to try to show what is going on. It shows the Sun and Earth as if we were looking down on the Solar North pole. Due to the enormous difference in diameter of Sun and Earth, and the huge distance between them I could not draw to scale, so the location of Earth is really just indicating how we are positioned relative to the limbs.

The Carrington longitudes are based on the current synoptic map, and the red line marks the position of the farside zone half a day ago, so to be entirely accurate I should have adjusted the position by 6 or 7 degrees !

I hope that the drawing helps to make it clear why we struggle to see detail on the limb, but also how much more of the region is yet to come.

Yes, this is the recurrent region. But to be absolutely clear, I believe the region developed on the farside, and I suspect that what we are seeing turning into view is a new spot.

Hey 3g,

I’m confused. You said this is the recurrent region, but you go on to say you believe it developed on the far side and the spots are new…

If we go back a couple of weeks, we saw 3030/2 move off the west limb. It’s been visible as a white blob on the far side as it made its way around and now it’s coming into view again. So, I’m not sure what you mean here. Help!

I get that we are only looking at a sliver on the limbs and poles, so everything is squashed together… with a lot of detail not visible… 

Do you mean that this active region died down and redeveloped on the far side of the sun? 
 

So, is it live or is it Memorex? 

W

 

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, WildWill said:

Hey 3g,

I’m confused. You said this is the recurrent region, but you go on to say you believe it developed on the far side and the spots are new…

If we go back a couple of weeks, we saw 3030/2 move off the west limb. It’s been visible as a white blob on the far side as it made its way around and now it’s coming into view again. So, I’m not sure what you mean here. Help!

I get that we are only looking at a sliver on the limbs and poles, so everything is squashed together… with a lot of detail not visible… 

Do you mean that this active region died down and redeveloped on the far side of the sun? 
 

So, is it live or is it Memorex? 

W

 

Hi Wild Will,

Apologies for any confusion. What I was trying to say was that, in general terms, this is the recurrent zone of magnetic activity that we have now seen several times since April. On each pass it has been a slightly different shape, and on this occasion it has shifted / extended so that the leading edge is now close to Carrington 150 (previously closer to Carrington 120). That is what I meant by development.

Until the whole zone is visible we cannot be certain if the old spots have just shifted position, or if a new spot formed on the leading edge. We should be able to see more clearly tomorrow or Friday.

The best information we have at present indicates that 3030 left West limb at 18 lat, Carr 116 and 3032 left at 20 lat, Carr 106. Compare those numbers with the latest ARs 3052 at 15 lat, Carr 151 and 3053 at 14 lat, Carr 133. The latest HMI Magnetogram appears to show some further activity, at a slightly higher latitude, just appearing on the limb, so let's see how that develops before arriving at a conclusion.

 

[WildWill]

Hi 3g,

I gotcha now.  As i recall, when 3030/2 went around the limb, the spots, especially 3030 were fading a good deal, and it wasn’t just because it was going around the limb. 
 

How would you even know if an individual sunspot was new or had been persistent for the trip around the far side of the sun? With the tools at hand, it seems we can track (very) active regions around the sun. But, individual sunspots? 
 

An analogy that pops to mind is a hurricane. We have lots of tools to track the storm, even down do individual lines of thunderstorms, even to say - that super cell just produced a tornado. But half hour later, unless you were watching every moment, you wouldn’t know which individual cells are new or old, some growing in at times, some fading out at times, particularly when their energy has been spent.

Thanks.

W & A

[3gMike]

10 hours ago, WildWill said:

Hi 3g,

I gotcha now.  As i recall, when 3030/2 went around the limb, the spots, especially 3030 were fading a good deal, and it wasn’t just because it was going around the limb. 
 

How would you even know if an individual sunspot was new or had been persistent for the trip around the far side of the sun? With the tools at hand, it seems we can track (very) active regions around the sun. But, individual sunspots? 
 

An analogy that pops to mind is a hurricane. We have lots of tools to track the storm, even down do individual lines of thunderstorms, even to say - that super cell just produced a tornado. But half hour later, unless you were watching every moment, you wouldn’t know which individual cells are new or old, some growing in at times, some fading out at times, particularly when their energy has been spent.

Thanks.

W & A

I would say that 3030 held up pretty well, but 3032 definitely reduced in size and was only an Alpha when it left.

I agree with you . At the moment we can only see active zones on the farside, and that tells us nothing about sunspots. Once the zone hits the east limb and we start to see sunspots we can then compare them (by their coordinates) to those that existed on the previous rotation, and even then we can only guess what may have happened while they were on the farside.

Great Analogy !

[MinYoongi]

M class flare  

everyone asleep?  long duration m class flare hello!!! Theres likely ejecta!! altough idk if it would be earth directed, its a bit north eastly.. @3gMike any data/info yet? 

[mozy]

Looked kinda wimpy

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Looked kinda wimpy

What, why? It’s a long duration M2, I wouldn’t call it wimpy. We didn’t get any radio emissions, so it might not have launched a CME though. 

[mozy]

11 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I wouldn’t call it wimpy. We didn’t get any radio emissions, so it might not have launched a CME though. 

Exactly why it looked wimpy..

[WildWill]

21 hours ago, mozy said:

Looked kinda wimpy

Take a front row seat in a “Blue Horizon” capsule, parked about 10 million miles out and tell me that! 😎

I wonder just how much energy was just released. 
 

W & A

Edited July 9, 2022 by WildWill

[Jesterface23]

The CME is Earth directed. Sadly we'll miss the good part of the CME again, but I'm fairly certain we will notice an impact. I don't see it going outside of 3 days of travel time and I have a preliminary arrival time at L1 of /11 10:45Z +-6 hours.

[MinYoongi]

Cool, lets see if we get some more Aurora. 🙂 !!

How does the region hold up magnetically? Tbh i have not expected an M Class flare, let alone a long duration one.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

The CME is Earth directed.

Looking at LASCO faint asymmetrical halo main ejecta away from us and only very faint part mostly headed below the Earth Sun line so I doubt we’ll see much of it at Earth 😕 but nevertheless I really nice long duration event ☺️

[3gMike]

14 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

M class flare  

everyone asleep?  long duration m class flare hello!!! Theres likely ejecta!! altough idk if it would be earth directed, its a bit north eastly.. @3gMike any data/info yet? 

Sorry Min - Yep, I slept through that !

Looks like there is a good chance for some further activity today, so I'll do my best to stay awake.

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

 

Looks like there is a good chance for some further activity today, so I'll do my best to stay awake.

why?  

[WildWill]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

why?  

Ditto? 

Don’t she look purdy today? I’ve just got everything charged up and ready to set up, but it’s gonna be 102 today… so I don’t know… the other day, I could hardly see because of the sweat pouring off my forehead and into my eyes! 
 

Must be because of all those sunspots!  Causing global warming… 😏

W & A

Edited July 9, 2022 by WildWill

[3gMike]

17 hours ago, WildWill said:

Take a front row seat in a “Blue Horizon” capsule, parked about 10 million miles out and tell me that! 😎

I wonder just how much energy was just released. 
 

W & A

Hi Will,

I've been trying to find data to give a scientific answer. NASA offers numbers in either Ergs / second or Ergs. Others offer a range from 10^20 (Typical flare) to 10^25 (Large flare)Joules.

Less scientifically, others say Typically 10 million times more than a volcanic eruption ! Probably fair to say quite a lot.

In terms of your "Blue Horizon" (Blue Origin?) capsule it would not be significantly worse than seen by GOES, since 10 million miles is 'only' 0.1AU closer to the Sun. The x-ray flux at GOES peaked at 2.7 x 10^-5 Watts/sq.m

Looking at it another way, it only raised the x-ray flux by a factor of (approximately) 3 for a period of about 3 hours, which really is not very much.

9 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

why?  

I assume you mean why do I think there could be further activity today.

My comment was based on looking at the configuration of the sunspot. It looked like there was some potential for mixing of fields, and the synoptic map showed reasonable confidence of there being M flares (currently showing 25%). Of course, I should have known better! The largest flare so far today is a C8.6, and that came from a plage area that is just about to disappear round the West limb.

[MinYoongi]

18 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The largest flare so far today is a C8.6, and that came from a plage area that is just about to disappear round the West limb.

you jinxed it   

[WildWill]

5 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Will,

I've been trying to find data to give a scientific answer. NASA offers numbers in either Ergs / second or Ergs. Others offer a range from 10^20 (Typical flare) to 10^25 (Large flare)Joules.

Less scientifically, others say Typically 10 million times more than a volcanic eruption ! Probably fair to say quite a lot.

In terms of your "Blue Horizon" (Blue Origin?) capsule it would not be significantly worse than seen by GOES, since 10 million miles is 'only' 0.1AU closer to the Sun. The x-ray flux at GOES peaked at 2.7 x 10^-5 Watts/sq.m

Looking at it another way, it only raised the x-ray flux by a factor of (approximately) 3 for a period of about 3 hours, which really is not very much.

I didn’t mean park yer capsule 10M miles from earth, but 10M mikes from the sun - front row baby! 
 

“a volcanic eruption “ is prett Vague unless you specify. Krakatoa (1898?) always comes to mind. Krakatoa was orders of magnitude more energetic than Mt. St. Helens. Located in the Java straights, Krakatoa was a pretty good sized volcanic island. The island is completely gone. Now, there is a new island next to where the old island was. In Sumatra (it’s right off the coast) they call it “son of Krakatoa”. It’s already getting impressive in its own right, but still small compared to Krakatoa.

Then you start looking at ergs or any other units you wish, usually with a very large exponent. But that doesn’t really hold much meaning unless you think about your everyday “stuff” in ergs or whatever units you want.

10,000 Hiroshima’s doesn’t really give me a good sense of the magnitudes. I believe Hiroshima was around 12-16,000 Tons TNT equivalent. 10,000 Hiroshima’s would be around 300 Megatons TNT equivalent. Enough to destroy the habitability of the earth for a few hundred thousand years…
 

The Russians actually tested a 50 megaton Hydrogen bomb (underground) it’s believed they were off on the desired yield and the boom was actually around 70 Megatons. Not quite enough to destroy the planet, but would be really really bad if detonated on the surface.

 

Still, when I try to truly comprehend that much power and energy, it’s hard (at least for my simple mind) to really get my head around the scale. 
 

10,000 Hiroshima’s. Can you really picture it in your mind?

Cheers.

L & A

PS have you been watching the magnetic fields in the Southern Hemisphere, looking more like a reflection of the “lines” we saw in the north. I don’t think we will get the same delineation as the north last week. But it is interesting. It also reminds me of the “Butterfly Diagram”.  Have ya a great day!

[WildWill]

On 7/5/2022 at 5:15 AM, MinYoongi said:

Hello Everyone!

 

Region 3053 is beginning to show.

is the magnetic layout we can see to be trusted or do we have to wait a few more days due to it being on the limb? (If anyone could explain why the limb makes it hard to assign please let me know. i never found a proper explanation!) 

 

Is this a recurrent region?

It looks to me like 3053 is really “blooming” especially in “white light”. The spots seem larger, more defined umbra (and darker), pretty crisp penumbra, also growing! 3053 is the real standout, but all the action seems to be improving (visually, white light). Imma lookin’ fer an even better tomorroa!

W & A

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, WildWill said:

It looks to me like 3053 is really “blooming” especially in “white light”. The spots seem larger, more defined umbra (and darker), pretty crisp penumbra, also growing! 3053 is the real standout, but all the action seems to be improving (visually, white light). Imma lookin’ fer an even better tomorroa!

W & A

Uhm..the spot is shrinking and also losing its trailing spots 😧