MinYoongi Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 Wow, that region really grew over the night. It has flared 2 times in the last hour, Around C2-C3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Wow, that region really grew over the night. It has flared 2 times in the last hour, Around C2-C3. Great stuff Min I'll check it out too! See how that yellow area to RHS is almost surrounded by blue? That's the area to watch! If some red comes through there could be exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Newbie said: Great stuff Min I'll check it out too! See how that yellow area to RHS is almost surrounded by blue? That's the area to watch! If some red comes through there could be exciting. Sorry but what does RHS mean? Thank you:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Sorry but what does RHS mean? Thank you:) Oops Right hand side I should have said right. I keep forgetting English is your 2nd language. You write it so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Wow, that region really grew over the night. It has flared 2 times in the last hour, Around C2-C3. It certainly did. The spots started multiplying yesterday, but really increased overnight. Looking visually, yesterday, it appeared “darker”, and with more contrast. Now, it seems less so, bu bigger and with more spots. I made a drawing yesterday, but through the telescope, diagonal, Powermate(barlow) & eyepiece, my view is flipped both horizontally and vertically. WW Edited June 19, 2022 by WildWill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 Starting to become more complex now in the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, mozy said: Starting to become more complex now in the center. I thought it's losing complexity looking at it. 🤔 Am I missing something?🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 4 hours ago, MinYoongi said: I thought it's losing complexity looking at it. 🤔 Am I missing something? There is certainly a mixing of polarities. Lower level just now. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Newbie said: There is certainly a mixing of polarities. Lower level just now. N. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 Does 3038 have a delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Does 3038 have a delta? According to solen it does: Region 13038 [N15E08] developed quickly gaining spots and area. The region is heading towards a DKC classification but wasn't quite there at midnight. A major flare is possible. A small magnetic delta has formed in a leading central penumbra. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 08:24, C1.4 @ 09:11, C1.3 @ 13:52, C1.6 @ 19:40 UT. I'm not so convinced, it needs to develop more. N. Edited June 20, 2022 by Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Newbie said: According to solen it does: Region 13038 [N15E08] developed quickly gaining spots and area. The region is heading towards a DKC classification but wasn't quite there at midnight. A major flare is possible. A small magnetic delta has formed in a leading central penumbra. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 08:24, C1.4 @ 09:11, C1.3 @ 13:52, C1.6 @ 19:40 UT. I'm not so convinced, it needs to develop more. N. I'm not convinced it will develop, unless the magnetic fields in that region have changed since the synoptic map was drawn at 02:51 I may be wrong, but it looks to me like the curvature on the field boundary may be preventing the two elements coming into closer proximity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Newbie said: According to solen it does: Region 13038 [N15E08] developed quickly gaining spots and area. The region is heading towards a DKC classification but wasn't quite there at midnight. A major flare is possible. A small magnetic delta has formed in a leading central penumbra. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 08:24, C1.4 @ 09:11, C1.3 @ 13:52, C1.6 @ 19:40 UT. I'm not so convinced, it needs to develop more. N. On Sat, before it grew new spots, it was very dark black! (Visually). You could see it with a mk-1 eyeball looking through a sheet of ND 5.0 filter. I have a couple of drawings I had made. It seems to me, that as it grew new spots, it became lighter. Less opacity. Like tipping over an ink well onto a white tablecloth. At first, it’s a really dark spot - and then as I t spreads, it becomes less opaque & less well defined. Saturday, the face of the sun was amazing. 3030, 3032, , 3035, 3035 & 3038 were all incredibly dark, with clear definition (almost no penumbra around the umbra). It was a very stunning view visually. The only spot visible in 3038 was the one on the east. The (now largest) spot on the west side of the AR, wasn’t even there yesterday. At least those were my visual observations for what it’s worth. its another cloudless sky here today, I hope to check it out again this afternoon. With 3038, I had been looking at it almost every couple of hours. It was very cool seeing new spots from viewing to viewing. what else in the sky is so dynamic? Im really looking forward to getting my camera going, so I can sit inside (68*F) and watch on my 65” 4K UHD TV! 104 this weekend, heat index 110-115*F! Most be all those sunspots making it hotter here! I understand Western Europe is also having a heat wave. Those darn spots! Cheers! WW & ATG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 It can't be a coincidence that the Universe has sent me to this post just as this sun spot was forming, especially so rapidly. This one is definitely one to keep an eye on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: I'm not convinced it will develop, unless the magnetic fields in that region have changed since the synoptic map was drawn at 02:51 I may be wrong, but it looks to me like the curvature on the field boundary may be preventing the two elements coming into closer proximity. Im confused. Does the region now have a delta or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Im confused. Does the region now have a delta or not? I cannot see a delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 Just now, 3gMike said: I cannot see a delta. Yeah, same. Maybe at the time solen.info updated the chart there was a tiny one. But why did noaa assign the region a 10% Xclass flare chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 54 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: But why did noaa assign the region a 10% Xclass flare chance? Likely because it’s a Monday 😂 indeed no delta so the odds are a bit exaggerated by SWPC. Not the first time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 45 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Likely because it’s a Monday 😂 indeed no delta so the odds are a bit exaggerated by SWPC. Not the first time. Welcome back Sander! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 52 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Likely because it’s a Monday 😂 indeed no delta so the odds are a bit exaggerated by SWPC. Not the first time. Oh I forgot you existed. 😯 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Likely because it’s a Monday 😂 indeed no delta so the odds are a bit exaggerated by SWPC. Not the first time. Welcome back. The region is still growing a bit. @3gMike care to explain to me what you mean that it wont grow or smth because of the magnetic fields on the synoptic map? interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @3gMike care to explain to me what you mean that it wont grow or smth because of the magnetic fields on the synoptic map? interested Yes, from the synoptic map you can see that the negative spots are sitting in the centre of a cavity, which is almost being closed off by the positive field looping back towards the east. Looking on the HMI Magnetogram you can see that the negative spots are sitting in the centre of a strong, almost circular (yellow) field. I suspect that is effectively constraining the negative spots from getting any closer to the boundary with the positive spots, therefore making it less likely that we will see a delta. It is really no more than a suspicion, but it will be interesting to see how things develop. 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: But why did noaa assign the region a 10% Xclass flare chance? There are a lot of factors involved, so I guess we should give them a bit of leeway. I found this rather technical, but interesting, article describing some of the factors involved. If you do not want to wade through all the detail it is worth looking at the Abstract on page 1 and the Summary & Conclusions on page 13. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017SW001595 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Neo said: It can't be a coincidence that the Universe has sent me to this post just as this sun spot was forming, especially so rapidly. This one is definitely one to keep an eye on! There have been 6 X-class flares, and many sunspots this year, its only a coincidence. Also, welcome to the forum! Edited June 20, 2022 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 10 hours ago, Neo said: It can't be a coincidence that the Universe has sent me to this post just as this sun spot was forming, especially so rapidly. This one is definitely one to keep an eye on! Enjoy the journey Neo Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 I've produced a brief movie to show development of this spot. It can be found here https://www.dropbox.com/s/mkbrs066aweb7s7/Sunspot 3038 Development_HR.webm?dl=0 If you prefer a lower resolution try this https://www.dropbox.com/s/vwh2u3todzu233n/Sunspot 3038 Development.webm?dl=0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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