Sunspot region 3006 (AR13006)

[MinYoongi]

7 hours ago, Bry said:

Curiously, does anyone else see what was transiting between us and the sun for the Tonga eruption on Jan 15th, and the backside for the largest solar eruption ever recorded on February 15th of this year or is it just me? I'm sure there were other notable space weather events this year, those two just stood out to me as most memorable.

 

I dont think the feb 15 eruption was the biggest solar eruption ever, i just think it was the largest filament liftoff that got captured by sdo ? If i remember correctly it wasnt even from a flare, it was a limb filament eruption.

[Sam Warfel]

I don’t think we can tell for sure if it was a flare or a filament eruption, it was farside so we didn’t see it (pretty far behind the limb)

[Bry]

https://modernsciences.org/the-esas-solar-orbiter-just-captured-the-sun-in-the-middle-of-a-giant-solar-eruption/

Sorry, I didn’t mean to say “largest solar flare ever”. The media made it seem like this was pretty significant for this solar cycle and our modern records. Here are some links I guess it was one of the larger solar prominences caught on sdo then?

Where would an archive be for a ranking of these type of solar eruptions that aren’t necessarily earth facing?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

31 minuten geleden, Bry zei:

Sorry, I didn’t mean to say “largest solar flare ever”. The media made it seem like this was pretty significant for this solar cycle and our modern records. Here are some links I guess it was one of the larger solar prominences caught on sdo then?

 

A large CME doesn’t mean there was a big solar flare! For example the X1 yesterday was a very faint CME. We’ve had a very long duration C-flare with an impressive CME. Just to say that the CME itself doesn’t say a lot. In the case you are referring too it was likely a strong event due to the SEP event and produced a very sweet CME that’s noteworthy and one of the best of this cycle thus far.

now back on topic again please   This is AR13006 😜

[Bry]

Thank you! I didn't mean too stray off topic, apologies for doing so! I appreciate the organized nature of this forum.

I also think I did not write my question very clearly.

I was originally asking if the wsa-enlil prediction for the combined x and c flares from 3006 and 3007 yesterday was showing a cme from those sunspots but it has since updated and no longer shows what I was referring to. I don't see a cme associated with the x/c flare from yesterday on the latest cme detected from cactus either, so I suppose there was no associated cme?

17 hours ago, Bry said:

Is this the CME they are projecting?

17 hours ago, Bry said:

along with that complex CME from the flares this morning from AR3006 and 3007.

 

 

On 5/10/2022 at 10:09 AM, MinYoongi said:

apparently alot of ejecta was ejected south of earth.

The wsa-enlil at that time showed a cme directed south so I thought I would ask if it was valid. It no longer shows this prediction.

I was wondering if the  the south deflection could be influenced by the closest planet being south of the sun from our field of view. Hence the lasco transit link.

 

21 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Am i tripping or did this region started rapid decay after the flare? Will post pics later  

In general, this made me wonder about AR3006's general activity with respect to mercury's longitude and latitude right now.

I understand correlating planet position and sunspot activity is a controversial topic, and needs more data to back it up.

I am only entertaining this theory due to recent and ongoing activity.

Meaning, has been no major planets between the earth and sun, or behind the earth for awhile. This seemed like a good control period to note lowered activity for sunspots facing us. Now with mercury getting close to transiting between the earth and sun, I'm seeing and "expecting" more activity from sunspots that are earth facing. This is all speculative and meant for some fun observation as I am no expert on this subject. Personally projecting space weather activity is useful for me to get some work done.  I work outside and get distracted and anxious when there is alot of sun activity going on, it useful to know when its going to be "calm" for awhile.

 

Maybe my only answerable, on topic question is: did the combined x/c flare from 3006 and 3007 yesterday eject a cme?

Thank you all for taking the time to respond, I appreciate all of your knowledgeable responses, I'm learning a lot!

[Vancanneyt Sander]

There was a CME but as already said it was more of the long duration C flare than the X flare and was mostly southward so an impact is not expected or maybe a tiny flank of it but nothing noteworthy.

[Bry]

I see that now! Thank you!

I was unsure of what was causing what seems like light  “active” geomagnetic conditions right now. Meaning: Bz < -5nT. Surely this is not the eruption yet from 3006/3007 from yesterday?

[MinYoongi]

This could be a tiny cme or just normal variation in the magnetic field. -5 isnt really worth thinking about

[Bry]

35 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

This could be a tiny cme or just normal variation in the magnetic field. -5 isnt really worth thinking about

Thanks MinYoongi! I appreciate all your up to date posts!

i get confused when spaxeweatherlive shows orange for disturbance storm time index or bz. Not that I’m in a latitude to see any auroras (37N!)

I assumed it was moderate conditions right now with

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-55nT)

 

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, Bry said:

Thanks MinYoongi! I appreciate all your up to date posts!

i get confused when spaxeweatherlive shows orange for disturbance storm time index or bz. Not that I’m in a latitude to see any auroras (37N!)

I assumed it was moderate conditions right now with

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-55nT)

 

prediction and reality are two different things as you can see 🙂 Maybe we'll slip into active conditions

nothing to worry bout