Sunspot region 3006 (AR13006)

[Sam Warfel]

Is this the thread for AR3006, is that the one that was 2992?

It has a nice mixed-polarity configuration with at least one strong delta spot (I think). Here’s hoping it flares and launches a CME, it’s directly earth-facing!

[Solarflaretracker200]

I think this is the 3006 one, The thread name just hasn’t been up to date. 

Or wait… I don’t know 

[mozy]

On 5/10/2022 at 3:42 PM, Orneno said:

Is this the thread for AR3006, is that the one that was 2992?

It has a nice mixed-polarity configuration with at least one strong delta spot (I think). Here’s hoping it flares and launches a CME, it’s directly earth-facing!

There we go, X-flare from that delta

Edited May 13, 2022 by mozy

[Sam Warfel]

Did I call it or what?

[mozy]

Now let's wait for a possible CME

Edited May 10, 2022 by mozy

[Solarflaretracker200]

Oh nice. X class

[Sam Warfel]

Looks pretty impulsive, sadly 

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Looks pretty impulsive, sadly 

There appears to be some dimming, but it doesn't look that impressive indeed. But should be something that is earth directed.

Edited May 10, 2022 by mozy

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Well the dimming is nice, but mostly due to the long duration C-flare from 3007 which started before the Impulsive X flare. LASCO might show a double CME perhaps 🤔 

[Sam Warfel]

26 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Well the dimming is nice, but mostly due to the long duration C-flare from 3007 which started before the Impulsive X flare. LASCO might show a double CME perhaps 🤔 

Type II and IV radio sweeps, 1700km/s! 
Fingers crossed!

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Well the dimming is nice, but mostly due to the long duration C-flare from 3007 which started before the Impulsive X flare. LASCO might show a double CME perhaps 🤔 

So the Dimming occured around 3007 rather 3006? So from which region should we expect a CME impact?

 

2 hours ago, mozy said:

There appears to be some dimming, but it doesn't look that impressive indeed. But should be something that is earth directed.

Im confused now. Is the dimming good or not? 😅 

[mozy]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So the Dimming occured around 3007 rather 3006? So from which region should we expect a CME impact?

 

Im confused now. Is the dimming good or not? 😅 

Dimming = good sign, now we just need to wait for imagery to see how the CME looks. Hoping for a good one, clear weather here on the 12th/13th.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

So the Dimming occured around 3007 rather 3006? So from which region should we expect a CME impact?

Im confused now. Is the dimming good or not? 😅 

Well simple said it ain’t simple 😜 we had a long duration C-flare from 3007 and during that flare the X1 impulsive one erupted from 3006. There was already dimming when the flare in 3007 occurred and the X1 further enhanced the dimming. Looking at the whole eruption movie there will be a CME even though the X1 was impulsive and likely it will be a broad CME due to both flares. But we’ll have to await LASCO imagery to see it more clearly.

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Well simple said it ain’t simple 😜 we had a long duration C-flare from 3007 and during that flare the X1 impulsive one erupted from 3006. There was already dimming when the flare in 3007 occurred and the X1 further enhanced the dimming. Looking at the whole eruption movie there will be a CME even though the X1 was impulsive and likely it will be a broad CME due to both flares. But we’ll have to await LASCO imagery to see it more clearly.

Got it :)!

if i remember correctly, aurora chasers dont like impulsive cmes right? 

If there were 2 cme launches technically, why is there only one 1700kms radio emission?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Got it :)!

if i remember correctly, aurora chasers dont like impulsive cmes right? 

No, we don’t like impulsive solar flares because they often lack an associated CME.

6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

If there were 2 cme launches technically, why is there only one 1700kms radio emission?

Well the second radio emission just went out 😜. there won’t be two CMEs but rather a combined one as both eruptions where close in time.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 

Well the second radio emission just went out 😜

The Type IV one? Isnt that the one @Orneno mentioned? Theres no speed showing, im really not educated on them. What does this mean now? I see the time is 14:51 so i think its related to the X Flaring and not a new one.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

9 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

The Type IV one? Isnt that the one @Orneno mentioned? Theres no speed showing, im really not educated on them. What does this mean now? I see the time is 14:51 so i think its related to the X Flaring and not a new one.

Only with type II there is a speed indication of the sweep, not with type IV!

two type IV alerts: 14:07 and 14:51 UTC. So that’s the X1 and M1

[MinYoongi]

Thanks @Vancanneyt Sander 

i have some nice Imagery for you guys. I love those videos.

apparently alot of ejecta was ejected south of earth.

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

apparently alot of ejecta was ejected south of earth.

Which was expected, but it shows a nice coronal wave and clearly two eruptions with both CME. In LASCO both will be merged already and we’ll see if there’s a m’n earthward part or not.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Which was expected, but it shows a nice coronal wave and clearly two eruptions with both CME. In LASCO both will be merged already and we’ll see if there’s a m’n earthward part or not.

I did not expect that at all, i thought since it is in a perfectly earth facing position, any cme would be a perfect hit. I did not think much about trajectory until now. 

Yeup, Lasco is a Dramaqueen again with not updating.

Btw, is the currently waning C-Class Background flux caused by 3007 still having that long C-Class flare or by 3006 calming down from the x?

[MinYoongi]

Am i tripping or did this region started rapid decay after the flare? Will post pics later  

[Sam Warfel]

4 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Which was expected, but it shows a nice coronal wave and clearly two eruptions with both CME. In LASCO both will be merged already and we’ll see if there’s a m’n earthward part or not.

We have LASCO now, but I’m having a hard time interpreting it. What do you think?

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

We have LASCO now, but I’m having a hard time interpreting it. What do you think?

I know you did not ask me, but Noaa posted an out of cycle update. (forecast discussion)

they're uncertain too.   

 

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I know you did not ask me, but Noaa posted an out of cycle update. (forecast discussion)

they're uncertain too.   

 

I saw that, thanks!

[Bry]

Is this the CME they are projecting?

If so, this is just as Mercury is beginning to transit between us and the Sun!! Nice to finally see some activity after a persistant earthside lull.

It looks like we can watch Mercury transit as per : https://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/transits_2022 

It shows Mercury will begin transiting in our field of view on LASCO C3 starting May 16th and LASCO C2 around the 20th..? I'm noticing how Mercury is projected to transit generally south of our view of the sun, along with that complex CME from the flares this morning from AR3006 and 3007.  Thank you to whomever first posted this link to the sungrazer transit website as it is really useful for seeing how far north or south of the sun these planets transit.

Curiously, does anyone else see what was transiting between us and the sun for the Tonga eruption on Jan 15th, and the backside for the largest solar eruption ever recorded on February 15th of this year or is it just me? I'm sure there were other notable space weather events this year, those two just stood out to me as most memorable.