Isatsuki San Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 (edited) it seems that the cme hit the earth's magnetic field and for now the bz is south with the solar wind at speeds 530, if the bz continues at this rate to the south, I think we could see a solar storm g3?, the hemispheric potential is at 110 Edited April 15, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: it seems that the cme hit the earth's magnetic field and for now the bz is south with the solar wind at speeds 530, if the bz continues at this rate to the south, I think we could see a solar storm g3?, the hemispheric potential is at 110 Yes, it feels like a G3 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Please post in the correct forums, I have moved your post. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: Yes, it feels like a G3 to me It feels like??? Are you a magnetometer Orneno 🤔😂💕 I wouldnt be surprised to see a lil Kp7 tonight tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: It feels like??? Are you a magnetometer Orneno 🤔😂💕 I wouldnt be surprised to see a lil Kp7 tonight tho Yes, I am, I have magnetic crystals in my brain. Actually, I was referring to the hemispheric power of 110 for like an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Youre indeed very good at forecasting so i believe it 2 hours ago, Orneno said: Yes, it feels like a G3 to me I found something for you. You were actually very correct about your feeling, we were really Close to a G3. This is the HP30/HP60 index which is more precise than the KP index. https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/index.php?id=152 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Has CME arrived or has not arrived?  Jump in wind speed at APR-14 13:00UT, but not much change in density. Are we currently seeing effects from CH-HSS, CME, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Starting to clear up slowly from the north, hoping the bz stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Has CME arrived or has not arrived?  Jump in wind speed at APR-14 13:00UT, but not much change in density. Are we currently seeing effects from CH-HSS, CME, or both? -10 BZ for hours? Hemispheric power 110 for hours? Seems to me it has to be a CME. CH HSS’s don’t usually have such strong magnetic fields, do they? I thought they were more speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Orneno said: -10 BZ for hours? Hemispheric power 110 for hours? Seems to me it has to be a CME. CH HSS’s don’t usually have such strong magnetic fields, do they? I thought they were more speed Sometimes they do! But very rarely. The highest i've seen was a G2 caused by a CH HSS in October 2019. With speeds around 800 and Bz down to -12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, mozy said: Starting to clear up slowly from the north, hoping the bz stays put. Yeah about that... might've jinxed myself with the BZ lol, rising steadily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 57 minutes ago, mozy said: Yeah about that... might've jinxed myself with the BZ lol, rising steadily Here it's supposed to thunder and even have heavy thunderstorms here 🤣 for the next three days or so. The weather seems to know when northern lights are seen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunboi Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 So far the density is a total flop. Seems more like a CH HSS than a CME impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 41 minutes ago, Sunboi said: So far the density is a total flop. Seems more like a CH HSS than a CME impact. The strength of the IMF sure seems like a CME… it could have just been a slower and not dense one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunboi Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 59 minutes ago, Orneno said: The strength of the IMF sure seems like a CME… it could have just been a slower and not dense one Ya it does. It’s amazing how prolonged it’s staying high for as well. But still not as interesting as I was expecting this event to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sunboi said: Ya it does. It’s amazing how prolonged it’s staying high for as well. But still not as interesting as I was expecting this event to be. I mean, I’m not gonna complain if a CME arrives on top of this… I think that’s highly unlikely though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 8 hours ago, Orneno said: Yes, it feels like a G3 to me So you have magnetic crystals in your brain and my brain can literally sense solar flares??? Do you get powers? Like me? 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: So you have magnetic crystals in your brain and my brain can literally sense solar flares??? Do you get powers? Like me? 😂 Yes, I have a space weather superpower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 This is of course the CME from 11 April no doubt about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Oh. The field is moderately North. Of course, after a day of hitting 100 GW and it gets dark here, it goes way North. Now the hemispheric power is only 27 GW Doesn't help my odds with passing clouds, a full moon, and it's below freezing with wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Oh. The field is moderately North. Of course, after a day of hitting 100 GW and it gets dark here, it goes way North. Now the hemispheric power is only 27 GW Doesn't help my odds with passing clouds, a full moon, and it's below freezing with wind. I know right, for North America it was the worst possible timing, from just after sunrise to sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunboi Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Orneno said: I mean, I’m not gonna complain if a CME arrives on top of this… I think that’s highly unlikely though That density wall an hour ago with a quick increase in wind speed might have been something? But nothing too fancy. Mainly due to the darn BZ heading north. We might get a steep drop soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Marcel de Bont said: This is of course the CME from 11 April no doubt about it. I agree. 3 hours ago, Orneno said: The strength of the IMF sure seems like a CME… it could have just been a slower and not dense one This is right. I think the CME might have been slowed down due to the HSS? Definitely seen that happen a few times. It either got slowed down due to the CIR being in front of it and it not being able to plow through it or the HSS forcing the CME to the side only delivering a glancing blow. So it was either overcasted a tiny bit or maybe the two interacted with each other. 3 minutes ago, Sunboi said: That density wall an hour ago with a quick increase in wind speed might have been something? But nothing too fancy. Mainly due to the darn BZ heading north. We might get a steep drop soon though. Most likely not a new CME arrival if u ask me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunboi Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I agree. This is right. I think the CME might have been slowed down due to the HSS? Definitely seen that happen a few times. It either got slowed down due to the CIR being in front of it and it not being able to plow through it or the HSS forcing the CME to the side only delivering a glancing blow. So it was either overcasted a tiny bit or maybe the two interacted with each other. Most likely not a new CME arrival if u ask me.. Definitely nothing to be scared about 😂  It does seem like it merged or was deflected a bit by the HSS and didn’t pack the punch it had originally been forecasted with. It doesn’t matter too much to me as it’s a snowstorm right now… hopefully 2975 comes around with some fuel left to burn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sunboi said: and didn’t pack the punch it had originally been forecasted with. It seems pretty accurate, it was forecast as G2 and it reached G2.  Maybe longer-lived than normal, but it hit the strength and timing predictions pretty accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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