AR 2974: M1 flare, weak CME

[lightpanther]

IMO, beware of "apps." Where are they getting their data from?

The useful part of the Glendale App is the social community aspect that gives a real time feedback on who is seeing aurora, where, right now.

Its other sections I take with a healthy pinch of salt, to be honest. For example, it is always claiming that "a substorm is developing" which leads to many false positives.

[Marcel de Bont]

3 uren geleden, Cat Perkinton zei:

I am seeing lots of aurora sighting reports coming in on Glendale app, much further South than the stats seem to indicate - despite a very weak substorm, fair to middling hemispheric power, and a North facing IMF....is this just down to the solar wind density being slightly elevated or something else? 

Its hard to say what is causing the activity right now but its not really something to write home about. I do however not think it is from the M1 CME, that would be way too early.

[Quilloz]

So do we know exactly how powerful this will be, or how much it will affect the Earth? I've been hearing wildly conflicting reports about its strength and how badly the CME's effects on Earth will be.

[Jesterface23]

There is a possibility the CME could be hidden in the CH HSS. Even if the SWPC's WSA-ENLIL's odd one out run is correct the CME and storm won't be significant.

[Chris, HB9DFG]

...at least a ramp seems to have started a few hours ago, so something is approaching!
But the red line still have to move more upwards as well..

Regards, Chris

[Marcel de Bont]

9 uren geleden, Quilloz zei:

So do we know exactly how powerful this will be, or how much it will affect the Earth? I've been hearing wildly conflicting reports about its strength and how badly the CME's effects on Earth will be.

NOAA expects G1 conditions from 18 UTC to 21 UTC today but I think this is highly unlikely. I do not think the CME will arrive until after midnight UTC on the 28th. The faint halo outline doesn't give me too much hope either. While enhanced geomagnetic conditions will be possible, I do not expect storm conditions of Kp5 or more... but hope I am wrong!

[lightpanther]

Is NOAA likely to update its WSA-ENLIL? Their 3 day forecast originally had kp5 posted for 12.00-15.00 if I am not mistaken (now 18.00-21.00) but the WSA-ENLIL hasn't changed.

[Jesterface23]

At this point the chance of the CME being detected will go down rapidly unless the CH HSS velocities drop rapidly.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Jesterface23

[Sam Warfel]

EPAM rising, CME impact imminent?

[Jesterface23]

42 minutes ago, Orneno said:

EPAM rising, CME impact imminent?

That would be from the latest CME launch

[Drax Spacex]

14 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

At this point the chance of the CME being detected will go down rapidly unless the CH HSS velocities drop rapidly.

True - the "signal" or strength of the CME was lower than the "noise" of the CH HSS.  It is difficult to detect events with S/N ratio less than 0dB.  Difficult, but not impossible.

This is another case IMO of the difference images exaggerating the apparent strength of the CME when the normal coronograph imagery showed it to be a rather weak event.

[Marcel de Bont]

2 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

That would be from the latest CME launch

You are right. The M1 CME blended in with the CH stream if any of it arrived.