Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) We just got an M1 flare, but not from the large and active 2975, but from the tiny, almost invisible, AR2974! This seems quite surprising. How could just a tiny AR produce a major flare? Moreover, this feels familiar. Didn't another almost invisible sunspot produce significant flaring recently? I can't remember if it was this region or an older one, but I know one did. Edited March 25, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) I was calm and I missed a notification of a class m flare in progress, so I quickly went to see which sunspot and it seems that it was sunspot 2974 and its magnetic field is beta? Edited March 25, 2022 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I was calm and I missed a notification of a class m flare in progress, so I quickly went to see which sunspot and it seems that it was sunspot 2974 and its magnetic field is beta? Yup, that's what commented on Also, we just got a type II radio emission! CME, anyone? Not directly earth-facing, but I've seen CMEs launch sideways in all directions, you never really know. Even it was perfect center disk it could launch sideways and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) Hace 2 minutos, Orneno dijo: Si, eso es lo que comenté another notification came out, which is still in progress what, Edited March 25, 2022 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Sometimes even little ones can erupt 😇 1 minuut geleden, Isatsuki San zei: another notification came out, which is still in progress what, that’s because GOES primary came back out of eclipse and data was a bit higher than GOES secondary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, Orneno said: ¡Acabamos de obtener una bengala M1, pero no del gran y activo 2975, sino del pequeño, casi invisible, AR2974! Esto parece bastante sorprendente. ¿Cómo podría un pequeño AR producir una gran llamarada? Además, esto se siente familiar. ¿Otra mancha solar casi invisible no produjo recientemente una llamarada significativa? No puedo recordar si fue esta región o una más antigua, pero sé que lo hizo. and the sunspot that you speak of is an old one, it was the 12838 sunspot that caused a class x solar flare because it was fast growing, but it made sense because it was rapidly compressing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: that’s because GOES primary came back out of eclipse and data was a bit higher than GOES secondary Ah, is that how we got the notifications of the flare and blackout (GOES secondary) even when there was no data showing on the plot, because it only shows GOES primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: Ah, is that how we got the notifications of the flare and blackout (GOES secondary) even when there was no data showing on the plot, because it only shows GOES primary? Yes 😉 something we have implemented in case a flare happens during eclipse. But seems we have a little issue when data from primary gets back and starts with B level resetting our alert. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Orneno said: Also, we just got a type II radio emission! CME, anyone? Not directly earth-facing, but I've seen CMEs launch sideways in all directions, you never really know. Even it was perfect center disk it could launch sideways and miss. Can't wait for SOHO... sadly it's late at night for me, guess I gotta go to bed and find out in the morning... Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: Yes 😉 something we have implemented in case a flare happens during eclipse. But seems we have a little issue when data from primary gets back and starts with B level resetting our alert. Could the graph just switch and display data from the other whenever primary is unavailable? I know there might be small steps or jumps in it, but I'd still like to be able to see the profile of the flare, to look for stuff like a double peak, slope it ramped up, and profile for any long-duration ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 This post was recognized by Sam Warfel! "Sometimes pointing out the obvious is just what is needed..." Vancanneyt Sander was awarded the badge 'Helpful' and 10 points. 2 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: Can't wait for SOHO... sadly it's late at night for me, guess I gotta go to bed and find out in the morning... Could the graph just switch and display data from the other whenever primary is unavailable? I know there might be small steps or jumps in it, but I'd still like to be able to see the profile of the flare, to look for stuff like a double peak, slope it ramped up, and profile for any long-duration ones. On the 3-day view, activate the secondary 😉 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 Ah, wdya know wdya know. Perfect. My only suggestion is to consider adding that to the homepage display (maybe in a dashed line, shown only during the eclipse portion) 24 minutes ago, Orneno said: Also, we just got a type II radio emission! CME, anyone? And a type IV! Does that mean a better CME likelihood than if we just got one or the other? Sanders, you said on the Facebook page this was long-duration. How long does a flare have to be for you to call it that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Perkinton Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: Ah, wdya know wdya know. Perfect. My only suggestion is to consider adding that to the homepage display (maybe in a dashed line, shown only during the eclipse portion) And a type IV! Does that mean a better CME likelihood than if we just got one or the other? Sanders, you said on the Facebook page this was long-duration. How long does a flare have to be for you to call it that? type ii and the type iv... permission to double the happy dance requested 🤸♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 5 uren geleden, Orneno zei: Sanders, you said on the Facebook page this was long-duration. How long does a flare have to be for you to call it that? It’s Sander without the S at the end 😉 Flare lasted 50 minutes so that’s not a short duration. Impulsive flares last a few minutes to ten minutes, long duration flares one hour to several hours. When flare happens, after the peak of it slows down slowly it’s likely long duration, if it drops fast it’s impulsive. 4 uren geleden, Cat Perkinton zei: permission to double the happy dance requested 🤸♂️ Permission granted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 ...hmmm...pity, it's again one of those very often happen M1-M2 flares. There ist also not yet a good position in the horizontal plane and (...hey...thanks for the shift-enter-hint, it works!) even it ist quite far downwards located as well. And I rememer I saw a lot of those strong downwards (or upwards) CMEs behind the limb this ciyle, so I fear a possible CME will not hit us. But thats only a personal evaluation, of course. Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 The CME kinda disappoints imho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: The CME kinda disappoints imho It’s quite faint. I thought it would be stronger, given M-class and long duration, and both radio emissions. Also not halo, so maybe not as likely to hit as as thought. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 28 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: It’s quite faint. I thought it would be stronger, given M-class and long duration, and both radio emissions. Also not halo, so maybe not as likely to hit as as thought. Sad. its still a lower M-class. If it would had a duration of 2 hours it would have been a better CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 Ah well, better luck next time. After all, this was pretty darn good for a tiny beta spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Who made that sunspot mad? Come on!! 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) Hello all I now had the time to check LASCO pictures and I played with some picture subtraction. So I now come to the conclusion that of course there is a very faint and even full halo CME when loocking at this picture: ...and this is a shot a little later on catched with the same procedure: Regards, Chris Edited March 25, 2022 by Chris, HB9DFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Yes indeed a faint halo CME but bulk is directed away and a very faint part earth directed. In our news update some more info as well. No big storm expected, max Kp3->Kp5 Arrival somewhere in the night of 27th to 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) The bulk of the CME is on the west side though with a duller remaining halo, so it isn't facing directly at us. (woops, didn't see a new comment popup) Edited March 25, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Yes indeed a faint halo CME but bulk is directed away and a very faint part earth directed. In our news update some more info as well. No big storm expected, max Kp3->Kp5 Arrival somewhere in the night of 27th to 28th. As per NOAA’s prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 6 uren geleden, Orneno zei: As per NOAA’s prediction? No, combined from a few predictions from forecasters. SWPC expects a very early impact the 27th 6UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Perkinton Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 I am seeing lots of aurora sighting reports coming in on Glendale app, much further South than the stats seem to indicate - despite a very weak substorm, fair to middling hemispheric power, and a North facing IMF....is this just down to the solar wind density being slightly elevated or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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