MinYoongi Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Why hasnt noaa said anything to this? has anyone info on this? Why is no one freaking out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Why hasnt noaa said anything to this? has anyone info on this? Why is no one freaking out? what effects would this have on earth? Edited March 10, 2022 by jeny96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It looks to be from a CME that launched around /07 00:00Z. It was a very small CME, but maybe we will get lucky. Another small CME launched around 28 hours afterwards as well. 47 minutes ago, jeny96 said: what effects would this have on earth? If the CME reaches Earth it will be fairly weak after over 3 days of travel, G1 might be slightly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It looks to be from a CME that launched around /07 00:00Z. It was a very small CME, but maybe we will get lucky. Another small CME launched around 28 hours afterwards as well. If the CME reaches Earth it will be fairly weak after over 3 days of travel, G1 might be slightly possible. But -40 is very severe. Thought it would make a strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I haven't seen any of the solar enthusiasts I like to follow on Twitter freak out or say anything about it either. There was this, though: My thinking is that the -40 nT is the Bz before hitting Earth, but I have zero idea if I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 57 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But -40 is very severe. Thought it would make a strong storm Yes Bedreamon I was thinking the same thing - whether |B| is reduced by the inverse square law by distance from the Sun. I'm not sure if that is a valid relationship or if |B| is more of an intrisic quality or dimishes over distance at a different rate (e.g. as a waveguide propagation model). Edited March 10, 2022 by Drax Spacex premature submission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Either way, it should be less strong by the time it arrives at Earth It was not a large CME by any means, so it can’t seem produce a storm as strong as -40 like the extreme CMEs in past storms sometimes have. So, it must decay before it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Orneno said: It was not a large CME by any means, so it can’t seem produce a storm as strong as -40 like the extreme CMEs in past storms sometimes have. So, it must decay before it arrives. I agree, considering where the Solar Orbiter is. The strength it's receiving and monitoring, I'm assuming despite not knowing that much, is probably way stronger that what it'll be on Earth if it's geoeffective. I think most solar enthusiasts would've been sounding alarms by now, to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 hours ago, MinYoongi said: ¿Por qué noaa no ha dicho nada a esto? alguien tiene informacion sobre esto? ¿Por qué nadie se asusta? Besides, since we are so sure about that, we still don't know if the stereo head predicts the bz well, maybe when it comes to earth it will be -10, since the stereo head doesn't have a magnetic field, does it? and you can tell what's going to hit a strand that wasn't that big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 uren geleden, Drax Spacex zei: Yes Bedreamon I was thinking the same thing - whether |B| is reduced by the inverse square law by distance from the Sun. I'm not sure if that is a valid relationship or if |B| is more of an intrisic quality or dimishes over distance at a different rate (e.g. as a waveguide propagation model). as a CME is an ever expanding cloud of gas the strength of the IMF inside the CME will also gradually weaken (and thus the direction of the IMF can't go lower than the total field value Bt) together with the solar wind speed. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Big CME happening right now wheres the coverage guys! I missed the forum 9 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: as a CME is an ever expanding cloud of gas the strength of the IMF inside the CME will also gradually weaken (and thus the direction of the IMF can't go lower than the total field value Bt) together with the solar wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 While the IMF is currently high, a better looking CME just launched at us. If the Solar Orbiter data is anything to try to estimate off of the high IMF may last another 8ish hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: While the IMF is currently high, a better looking CME just launched at us. If the Solar Orbiter data is anything to try to estimate off of the high IMF may last another 8ish hours. What’s the new CME? Another filament eruption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, Orneno said: What’s the new CME? Another filament eruption? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Ok, Godzilla is an overstatement. It doesn’t even look worse than that one from the X1 that turned out to be a disappointment. Still cool though, I hope for G3/G4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Ok, Godzilla is an overstatement. It doesn’t even look worse than that one from the X1 that turned out to be a disappointment. Still cool though, I hope for G3/G4! Considering that it’s only from a c flare, I doubt it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 what effects is expected to have on earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Orneno said: Another filament eruption? It looked to be a filament eruption followed by X-Ray flux of C2.8. I had calculated a preliminary arrival time of /13 14:50Z which is still fairly slow as a travel time of ~67 hours 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jeny96 said: what effects is expected to have on earth? It’s a long duration 6 hour plus flare, it could launch a decent CME even though only C-class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Orneno said: It’s a long duration 6 hour plus flare, it could launch a decent CME even though only C-class and what could that cause? maybe a solar storm? if so how strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Orneno said: Ok, Godzilla is an overstatement. It doesn’t even look worse than that one from the X1 that turned out to be a disappointment. Still cool though, I hope for G3/G4! And also, calling the cme a Godzilla is just more examples of what I mentioned in my other thread, of solar physicists giving exaggerated statements 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Don't expect too much yet. I'd be thinking of a low chance of G2, and G1 possible. We need to wait for the model runs for their forecasts. Edited March 11, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Don't expect too much yet. I'd be thinking of a low chance of G2, and G1 possible. We need to wait for the model runs for their forecasts. Looking at the CME, I still think G3 is possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Latest SUVI video shows some slight yet widespread coronal dimming and after that, you can see bright plasma moving along newly created field lines. Edited March 11, 2022 by LunarLights58 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 What...? I thought CMEs were something for the Solar Activity side of the site, so I made a new topic there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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