MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Hellooooo and Happy Almost-Christmas to all of you 🙂 There is a nice Long-Duration C-class Flare happening right now as I write this. I checked SUVI and determined 2909 to be the source ^-^ ! It looks spectacular! (Pic attached) This event will most likely drive a CME, I just dont know if it's in a geoeffective position/likely to be earthbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Hold your horses, there are two bumps in the data so it’s more likely we had a few minor C-events. Also it’s ‘just’ C1 so nothing worth speaking of 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 M class solar flares (at least for me and maybe even you guys) is when things get interesting 🤷♀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaimbridge Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Solar activity is considered “moderate” when flaring reaches M1.0 and “high” when flares reach M5.0 and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Kaimbridge said: Solar activity is considered “moderate” when flaring reaches M1.0 and “high” when flares reach M5.0 and above. Logical, if I remember correctly the definition of M is "moderate" (C is "minor"). I thought it would have to be X to be "strong" or something like that though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 A and B are solar flares would be considered 'quiet' or 'little activity'. C class solar flares are 'minor' or 'minor activity'. M class solar flares are 'Strong' or 'Moderate activity'. X class solar flare are 'Major' or 'Strong activity'. At least that is what a website said but who knows if that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: A and B are solar flares would be considered 'quiet' or 'little activity'. C class solar flares are 'minor' or 'minor activity'. M class solar flares are 'Strong' or 'Moderate activity'. X class solar flare are 'Major' or 'Strong activity'. At least that is what a website said but who knows if that is right. huh, both M and X are called "strong" by different people 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirvegs Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) To my untrained eye It looks like the C4.49 flare from AR 2909 could have had an associated CME. Its not much, but its something. We'll have to wait on LASCO to confirm. Edited December 20, 2021 by Sirvegs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 10 hours ago, Sirvegs said: To my untrained eye It looks like the C4.49 flare from AR 2909 could have had an associated CME. Its not much, but its something. We'll have to wait on LASCO to confirm. NOAA didnt mention it in their forecast, sadly. But they mentioned the Flare from 1 Hour ago! " Further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if an associated CME with an Earth-directed component was produced." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Lets hope it is Earth directed CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 That'd be great for an aurora display right around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Extra Christmas lights 🤞😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Fingers crossed for you, but I sadly have no idea where to look for conformation that a cme was launched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I don't know either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 We're still awaiting LASCO imagery but we can say there was a moderate coronal dimming so a CME is likely (but don't expect a major storm as it was just a minor M-flare). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: We're still awaiting LASCO imagery but we can say there was a moderate coronal dimming so a CME is likely (but don't expect a major storm as it was just a minor M-flare). Oh, are M-Class flares not a usual driver for "bigger" storms too? It was pretty short lived tho.. well, anyways, lets hope Lasco Backfills quickly! really annoying that Stereo is dead since the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Oh, are M-Class flares not a usual driver for "bigger" storms too? Well not usually. But on Nov 3/4th 2021 we had some serious shit come in from two M class solar flares. (Sorry for the swearing) Man that was the highest KP value I've seen so far. Edited December 20, 2021 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 56 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Oh, are M-Class flares not a usual driver for "bigger" storms too? It was pretty short lived tho.. well, anyways, lets hope Lasco Backfills quickly! really annoying that Stereo is dead since the 17th. No, it depends a lot on the duration of the solar flare and the CME distribution plus you don’t know upfront what direction the IMF will take. Also not all M-flares have an associated CME! For example short lived Impulsive M-class flares (even >M5) can happen without CME. Also, a very very long duration C7 flare can produce a bigger storm then a short lived tiny CME of an M5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: No, it depends a lot on the duration of the solar flare and the CME distribution plus you don’t know upfront what direction the IMF will take. Also not all M-flares have an associated CME! For example short lived Impulsive M-class flares (even >M5) can happen without CME. Also, a very very long duration C7 flare can produce a bigger storm then a short lived tiny CME of an M5. Ah, thanks! Yeah, as far as i can see the Flare "only" lasted for like 20-30 mins or something, I dont really know if thats considered long,short or mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I think that would be considered short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Oh, are M-Class flares not a usual driver for "bigger" storms too? It was pretty short lived tho.. well, anyways, lets hope Lasco Backfills quickly! really annoying that Stereo is dead since the 17th. Stereo COR2 beacon images and LASCO images are now available showing a CME corresponding to the 2021-12-20/11:36 M1 flare. The direction is mostly south and east, but the lobe itself is wide enough that we should get a partial hit (more than a glancing blow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 42 minuten geleden, Drax Spacex zei: Stereo COR2 beacon images and LASCO images are now available showing a CME corresponding to the 2021-12-20/11:36 M1 flare. The direction is mostly south and east, but the lobe itself is wide enough that we should get a partial hit (more than a glancing blow). just a very faint part Earth directed so I really don't expect 'epic' things, only a slight enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Let's hope this region decides to flare up again and send a better CME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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