Sam Warfel Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 I know the BZ should be south for Aurora to become powerful, so I’m waiting for it to hopefully switch back south after it’s current northerly trend before I go out of town to look for Aurora. Is that good, or am I going to miss something? ~paranoid Aurora hunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Youre 100% right! Dr. Skov talked about the Event hitting us rn not being the Main event, so dont lose hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 Just now, MinYoongi said: Youre 100% right! Dr. Skov talked about the Event hitting us rn not being the Main event, so dont lose hope! Oh that’s amazing news! just what I wanted to hear 😁😁 ❤️❤️❤️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, Orneno said: Oh that’s amazing news! just what I wanted to hear 😁😁 ❤️❤️❤️ Its starting to go - again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Its starting to go - again! I know, I’m heading out looking!!!! 🤞🤞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Orneno said: I know, I’m heading out looking!!!! 🤞🤞 Good luck friend!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Good luck friend!!! Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 We are currently having a KP 7 G3 Strong Geomagnetic storm. That is the highest ive see it from when i started watching this again on Oct 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 Hmm no such luck. Didn’t get a long enough period of south BZ to push the Auroras this far south, even though the KP was high enough, and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Keep an eye on it, there's still a fair amount of energy in the atmosphere atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Well I wish I had went out earlier. Supposedly was at a G3 just after dark. Yet it dropped down to G1 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 I think we just entered the magnetic center of the cloud, which by the looks of it is pointing southward. If this is the case we could see hours of steady southward Bz before flipping north. Let's see. A great impact nonetheless and a fast transit time of like 40 hours. Well done Sun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Marcel de Bont said: I think we just entered the magnetic center of the cloud, which by the looks of it is pointing southward. If this is the case we could see hours of steady southward Bz before flipping north. Let's see. A great impact nonetheless and a fast transit time of like 40 hours. Well done Sun! So you think the main CME has arrived? Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 6 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: I think we just entered the magnetic center of the cloud, which by the looks of it is pointing southward. If this is the case we could see hours of steady southward Bz before flipping north. Let's see. A great impact nonetheless and a fast transit time of like 40 hours. Well done Sun! Looks like it, but I was asleep then 😭 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacuum Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Is there a certain likely hood of a CME’s orientation? Is it 50/50? For example, if the “big one” is coming, do we assume it’s Bz is negative and take precautionary steps? Also, can we get a hint on orientation from the direction of solar flare? Whether it propagates from the negative pole to the positive or the reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 uur terug, Vacuum zei: Is there a certain likely hood of a CME’s orientation? Is it 50/50? For example, if the “big one” is coming, do we assume it’s Bz is negative and take precautionary steps? Also, can we get a hint on orientation from the direction of solar flare? Whether it propagates from the negative pole to the positive or the reverse? If it was that simple it would already be available 😉 the direction of the IMF can’t be predicted upfront. The IMF polarity can be predicted but is something else. That’s why you can have a G3 prediction and upon arrival with a northward IMF a no storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Vacuum said: Is there a certain likely hood of a CME’s orientation? Is it 50/50? For example, if the “big one” is coming, do we assume it’s Bz is negative and take precautionary steps? Also, can we get a hint on orientation from the direction of solar flare? Whether it propagates from the negative pole to the positive or the reverse? As @Vancanneyt Sander stated, its possible to model the IMF Polarity. But the direction cant be predicted, because CME's often twist and turn on their way to earth and we have no way of monitoring that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacuum Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 10 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: If it was that simple it would already be available 😉 the direction of the IMF can’t be predicted upfront. The IMF polarity can be predicted but is something else. That’s why you can have a G3 prediction and upon arrival with a northward IMF a no storm. There goes my Nobel prize! Thank you 8 hours ago, MinYoongi said: As @Vancanneyt Sander stated, its possible to model the IMF Polarity. But the direction cant be predicted, because CME's often twist and turn on their way to earth and we have no way of monitoring that. I had no idea the twisted! Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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