Wow! All the FT8 bands on the East Coast dead for 5 minutes. Thought it was my radio ! Nope, X-class baby !

[Drax Spacex]

On 7/3/2021 at 11:32 AM, Dr. I said:

How will this flare affect the solar flux?

Not at all, based on a review of observed SFI values for the past few days:

7/1 94
7/2 95
7/3 94 <<< 2838 C,M,X flares
7/4 91 <<< 2838 M flare
7/5 89

SFI is measured at specific time(s) of day.  If the flare wasn't active (visible) when the SFI was measured, it probably doesn't show up as an elevated SFI value.

 

[Bedreamon]

On 7/4/2021 at 10:43 AM, MinYoongi said:

You really need  to stop watching those Youtubers that inflict only anxiety with their fearmongering.

Of course a really big solar Flar (carrington size) *could* technically happen at any time , but dont let such a very small eventuality make your life miserable.

Even strong X-Class Flares and even G4-5 storming will not kill all of our Powergrids.. Look at the 2003 Halloween Storms. We've come a LONG way since then. 

I mean, yeah, you're definitely right and so is everyone else. But then when I hear recent news similar to this (even though it's on the backside), as well as what's known in regards to strong/"big as hell" flares that may occur (I think it was around ~10%/decade?), it definitely gets my mind racing and wondering about space weather.

[Newbie]

Shiver me timbers and stone the crows!

To  Bedreamon!!! 

When are you going to start taking on board the sound advice you have been given on this forum? 

(said with a firm but gentle voice).

Newbie

 

 

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Bedreamon said:

I mean, yeah, you're definitely right and so is everyone else. But then when I hear recent news similar to this (even though it's on the backside), as well as what's known in regards to strong/"big as hell" flares that may occur (I think it was around ~10%/decade?), it definitely gets my mind racing and wondering about space weather.

I know what you mean. But no need to be afraid. ❤️ Really. Fearmongers will milk ANYTHING they can find. Any nature-disaster thing will be used by them. believe me. Its like those antivax people  

39 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Shiver me timbers and stone the crows!

To  Bedreamon!!! 

When are you going to start taking on board the sound advice you have been given on this forum? 

(said with a firm but gentle voice).

Newbie

 

 

Love that answer.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Last week I saw several news items with the only intend to bring sensational out of context “news” full of errors. The coronal hole that became geoeffective was blown up in sensational news sites claiming it would cause blackouts, gsm signal loss and grid issues. All to put fear into the people with major exaggeration of a simple coronal hole without even knowing what they talk about. It’s bad that these sites or youtubers exists and put people into fear but it’s like weed, difficult to exterminate 🤷‍♂️ You just have to ignore all the fakes and only follow reliable sites/youtubers but those are not harder to find because it isn’t sensational enough to get a lot of attention (because that’s how the algorithms work of social media)

[Isatsuki San]

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Last week I saw several news items with the only intend to bring sensational out of context “news” full of errors. The coronal hole that became geoeffective was blown up in sensational news sites claiming it would cause blackouts, gsm signal loss and grid issues. All to put fear into the people with major exaggeration of a simple coronal hole without even knowing what they talk about. It’s bad that these sites or youtubers exists and put people into fear but it’s like weed, difficult to exterminate 🤷‍♂️ You just have to ignore all the fakes and only follow reliable sites/youtubers but those are not harder to find because it isn’t sensational enough to get a lot of attention (because that’s how the algorithms work of social media)

If that news happened, it said that it was the x-class solar flare of July 3, and and I stayed like what lightning does it say? said that I was going to see blackouts and things like that, and one said that it did not happen that must have been 70 years and he gave me a laugh

Edited July 15, 2021 by Isatsuki San
bad translation

[Bedreamon]

16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Last week I saw several news items with the only intend to bring sensational out of context “news” full of errors. The coronal hole that became geoeffective was blown up in sensational news sites claiming it would cause blackouts, gsm signal loss and grid issues. All to put fear into the people with major exaggeration of a simple coronal hole without even knowing what they talk about. It’s bad that these sites or youtubers exists and put people into fear but it’s like weed, difficult to exterminate 🤷‍♂️ You just have to ignore all the fakes and only follow reliable sites/youtubers but those are not harder to find because it isn’t sensational enough to get a lot of attention (because that’s how the algorithms work of social media)

Well, the media's gonna be the media. After all, you gotta get clicks somehow!
Still, that's not what I'm really talking about. I'm mostly talking about stuff like that backside halo CME that occurred on 7/13. Things like that, coupled with the calculated percentage of the possibility of a giant, strong, earth-facing CME per decade or whatever, are what usually make me concerned. Granted, there've been halo CMEs that're more powerful than what was on the backside recently, but I still think it's worth discussing.

[helios]

IMO the backside CME wasn't really big.

Ok, it was full-halo, but it only looked impressive in the delta-processed images. The SPE was barely detectable. 

A space-fart compared to this one https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/216

[Christopher S.]

6 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

Still, that's not what I'm really talking about. I'm mostly talking about stuff like that backside halo CME that occurred on 7/13. Things like that, coupled with the calculated percentage of the possibility of a giant, strong, earth-facing CME per decade or whatever, are what usually make me concerned. Granted, there've been halo CMEs that're more powerful than what was on the backside recently, but I still think it's worth discussing.

It might help you to review the facts in your mind, to ease your anxiety towards this stuff. For instance:

1. Backside-CME, no significant Earth-directed components
2. Even if there was, the IMF would have to be southward to be truly geoeffective
3. Flares don't hurt people
4. Lightning strikes are several times more likely and more dangerous, so why are we worried about a less dangerous and less likely phenomena?

[Bedreamon]

I know it wasn't directed towards the planet, and there have probably been way stronger full-halo CMEs in the past, but seeing that (as well as another one a little bit smaller in size happen just a few hours ago) can't help but make me wonder about what might happen when the sunspot turns to face Earth. : ( 

(Just for reference, I've only started looking at space weather since ~2019, so I definitely missed a lot of stuff in years like 2012, 2015, or 2017.) 

[Newbie]

There have been plenty of people posting on these forums/a about their bad anxiety towards the sun and whether they should be worried, so you are not alone.

I was going back over one yesterday. 

Every time the answer has been the same to those posters: don't worry. The earth is still here.

I sense you won't be convinced until a large earth facing flare occurs and you realise it was nothing to worry about.

Personally, I have never looked at any of that you-tube stuff and I never will. I like to know the truth about a matter backed up by science.

So the sites I look at are factual and non sensational.

The next time such a flare occurs please don't seek out sensational sites, let this be your first port of call.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Bedreamon said:

I know it wasn't directed towards the planet, and there have probably been way stronger full-halo CMEs in the past, but seeing that (as well as another one a little bit smaller in size happen just a few hours ago) can't help but make me wonder about what might happen when the sunspot turns to face Earth. : ( 

(Just for reference, I've only started looking at space weather since ~2019, so I definitely missed a lot of stuff in years like 2012, 2015, or 2017.) 

It's okay! I started 2019 too, due to extreme fearmongering and sh*t on Youtube.

Since then my Anxiety fell to almost 0, only flaring (pun intended) up very rarely.

You'll be okay! ❤️ 
I promise you our Power Grids and Satelites are very strong.

[Bedreamon]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

There have been plenty of people posting on these forums/a about their bad anxiety towards the sun and whether they should be worried, so you are not alone.

I was going back over one yesterday. 

Every time the answer has been the same to those posters: don't worry. The earth is still here.

I sense you won't be convinced until a large earth facing flare occurs and you realise it was nothing to worry about.

Personally, I have never looked at any of that you-tube stuff and I never will. I like to know the truth about a matter backed up by science.

So the sites I look at are factual and non sensational.

The next time such a flare occurs please don't seek out sensational sites, let this be your first port of call.

I know those channels/sites are sensational as hell. I was going off of the data found on here, Solarham.com, et cetera, or twitter flare enthusiasts like HaloCME and whatnot, who also use NASA/NOAA data. That's where I saw the LASCO data on those backside almost full-halo CMEs. This being my first/second time actually seeing it is where my worry mostly comes from, despite the fact such CMEs have been seen and probably analyzed since these satellites were put in orbit.
I guess with time my worry-ness will go down. 🤷‍♂️

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Bedreamon said:

I know those channels/sites are sensational as hell. I was going off of the data found on here, Solarham.com, et cetera, or twitter flare enthusiasts like HaloCME and whatnot, who also use NASA/NOAA data. That's where I saw the LASCO data on those backside almost full-halo CMEs. This being my first/second time actually seeing it is where my worry mostly comes from, despite the fact such CMEs have been seen and probably analyzed since these satellites were put in orbit.
I guess with time my worry-ness will go down. 🤷‍♂️

I follow HaloCME too! I also encourage you to check out Dr.Skov , and Erika Kapal. Maybe Sarah Houssal. They're really good Scientists sharing Stuff about Solarcycles/CME's on Twitter. 🥰 

[Newbie]

2 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

I know those channels/sites are sensational as hell. I was going off of the data found on here, Solarham.com, et cetera, or twitter flare enthusiasts like HaloCME and whatnot, who also use NASA/NOAA data. That's where I saw the LASCO data on those backside almost full-halo CMEs. This being my first/second time actually seeing it is where my worry mostly comes from, despite the fact such CMEs have been seen and probably analyzed since these satellites were put in orbit.
I guess with time my worry-ness will go down. 🤷‍♂️

The LASCO data on those farside halo CME's you posted about showed they were really nothing out of the ordinary, as has already been mentioned.  It comes down to understanding what the data means when such events occur. Factual websites will very quickly provide an analysis of the event in question. A full halo CME only means plasma has been propelled in all directions, there is nothing scary about it.

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Newbie

[Bedreamon]

25 minutes ago, Newbie said:

A full halo CME only means plasma has been propelled in all directions, there is nothing scary about it.

 

Yeah, I found that out after some light research. M-Class flares have produced full halo CMEs, and it might be safe to assume C-Class flares have as well. Regardless, you can't determine the class of a flare that produced a CME away from Earth, so there's no point in me being concerned or watchful unless/until the spot turns towards the Earth-facing side of the Sun.

[Newbie]

It's great that you did some research and found your answer. 😃

If you continue to explore Space Weather and find out how and why it all happens, the fears you once had will go and they will be replaced with a joy and wonderment at the things you are discovering and learning about.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

12 uren geleden, Bedreamon zei:

Yeah, I found that out after some light research. M-Class flares have produced full halo CMEs, and it might be safe to assume C-Class flares have as well. Regardless, you can't determine the class of a flare that produced a CME away from Earth, so there's no point in me being concerned or watchful unless/until the spot turns towards the Earth-facing side of the Sun.

Well that’s true, we’ve had very long duration events in C-class making a very nice CME while some stronger flares aren’t worth talking about their CME. If all depends on the characteristics of the event that makes a good CME. In time you’ll learn that impulsive X-flares won’t do us any harm at all. 
where moving forward into SC25 and exciting stuff will happen and with each event you’ll learn more and understand more and know that it’s just normal space weather that you can enjoy instead of fearing it.

skov and halocme are good ones to follow. Scientists are always exciting when they talk about events 😊 

18 uren geleden, Bedreamon zei:

(Just for reference, I've only started looking at space weather since ~2019, so I definitely missed a lot of stuff in years like 2012, 2015, or 2017.) 

I’ve been following since 2003 and saw the Halloween CME’s and geomagnetic events live (well live with a 56k modem 😝). It’s in that enthousiasme (and frustration*) that I’ve created the site 😉

* in 2003 you had to have a dozen of internet explorer windows open (browsers didn’t have tabs) of many different sources to be able to follow everything. That’s why we started SWL to centralise and inform everyone about the real things without being sensational 

[Tully]

On 7/4/2021 at 12:16 PM, Delz86 said:

I have a few questions. When the flare are on the other side of the sun (not visible), it's possible to know if there is a flare ? Is it possible to perceive certain effects ?

For example, if in 4 days the region 2838 is flaring a M or X flare on the other side of the sun, it's possible to know ? Or if it's on the other side it's impossible to know ? If it's possible, is it possible to know precisely the power of the flare ? (C,M or X or C.7, M.3 or X.2,...) ?

I hope it's clear !

Thanks.
work time

I also wanted to ask this. We are on the same wave)

Edited August 11, 2021 by Tully

[Newbie]

 

4 hours ago, Tully said:

I also wanted to ask this. We are on the same wave)

Tully:

I'm pretty sure this has already been considered in this thread. Events such as sunspot eruptions that occur on the far side of the Sun are not detected by Earth's satellites. Hence there is no way of determining their strength. If a flare on the far side of the Sun was sufficiently strong enough there may be some slight effect on the Earth by way of a space radiation storm. If a flare occurs on the East or West limb of the Sun, just out of view, the GOES satellite often detects this as an increase in Xray flux but we cannot actually tell the full strength of the flare. Imaging from SDO instruments would show some flaring just beyond the limb. The STEREO-A satellite shows possible Active Regions approximately 3 days before they turn into Earth view but has no instruments to detect the strength of flares. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Newbie