G3 alert or higher on that real?

[Bedreamon]

Yeah, I've heard that geomagnetism is a fickle thing and really unpredictable. Thank you for the info!

Maybe I should stop getting part of my info from YT. I don't even believe the conspiracy theories, I just go to a channel for its daily Sun check and nothing else.

Though at the same time, something just feels off about this whole thing with the filament-induced G3 storm, as if the magnetic field actually is decreasing in strength. I know that a CH HSS can cause G3 storming too, but still...

Edited May 13, 2021 by Bedreamon

[Isatsuki San]

Hace 46 minutos, Bedreamon dijo:

Sí, he oído que el geomagnetismo es algo voluble y realmente impredecible. ¡Gracias por la información!

Tal vez debería dejar de recibir parte de mi información de YouTube. Ni siquiera creo en las teorías de la conspiración, solo voy a un canal para su revisión diaria de Sun y nada más.

Aunque al mismo tiempo, algo se siente mal en todo esto con la tormenta G3 inducida por filamentos, como si el campo magnético en realidad estuviera disminuyendo en fuerza. Sé que un CH HSS también puede causar un asalto G3, pero aún así ...

 

I do not want to sound like I know what happened, but the magnetic field did not lose strength, only that together the bz went south and opened a crack, the solar wind entered and that happened, magnetic field is strong I do not remember when it was but I remember that a g3 was previously predicted by 2 solar events that would be an eruption and the corona hole solar wind and only geomatenic activity passed through the bz that was always in the north

[abc]

12 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

Like, something that weak causing geomagnetism that strong can't be normal, and it makes me think that stronger things will cause far stronger storms and far worse effects on electrical systems and by extension our society.

This is, in fact, not true at all. Last year december, it was predicted that there might ba a G3 majot storm, yet it turned out that the Kp index did not even reach minor storm levels!. You cannot simply based on this case that the result is much stronger than expected and deduce that stronger stuff will arise something even stronger!

[Bedreamon]

1 hour ago, abc said:

This is, in fact, not true at all. Last year december, it was predicted that there might ba a G3 majot storm, yet it turned out that the Kp index did not even reach minor storm levels!. You cannot simply based on this case that the result is much stronger than expected and deduce that stronger stuff will arise something even stronger!

Oh yeah, I forgot about that! Like I said, I should definitely stop going onto YT channels that may and may not have true info in regards to space weather (For me, it's info about Earth's magnetic field).

[Madison Gonzalez]

On 5/12/2021 at 11:10 AM, Kari A. Kuure said:

The duration of a G3 storm is hard to predict, it can last a day but just as well it will end in a few hours. Personally, I hope it will continue until the morning of the night, because only in the darkest time of the night here in Tampere (Southern Finland) can we see the northern lights at this time of year. This opportunity will also end in early June.

is it the midnight sun?

[Isatsuki San]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:27 AM, Vancanneyt Sander said:

@Bedreamon why the sudden G3, easy to explain… as with every CME there are a lot of uncertainties. Even forecasts can be very inaccurate and that has its reasons. First, the distance between the sun and the Earth is a long drive. So if calculations of the speed of the CME are 10km/sec off, that’s a huge difference in time. CME’s also slow down when they travel through the solar system and the rate isn’t constant so there’s also room for error. So when forecasters put an impact time out, there’s a margin of plus and minus 6 hours on its arrival time. Meaning that CME might hot sooner or much later and that has a big impact on how strong a storm can get. If it arrives earlier it’s likely stronger than predicted, if it arrives late, it’s likely less strong. 
Next big part about CME’s is that you don’t know how strong the IMF will get and you don’t know which direction the IMF will take, this has a big impact on the storm level. CMEs are modelled and based on that there’s a Kp prediction that in many cases won’t be accurate because of the unknown factors. For example if Kp7 was predicted, but upon arrival of the CME the IMF is moderately strong but northward directed we wouldn’t have a Kp7. 
in this case the CME was earlier than predicted (a few hours) so it came a bit stronger. The IMF strength was way higher than anticipated with a strong southward period so that a G3 storm could initiate. And that has nothing to do with weakening geomagnetic field, the IMF was strong southward which cause such storms easily with those conditions.

To conclude: with every CME it’s a waiting game for its arrival as it predictions are never accurate. And you only know the real odds for a geomagnetic storm when it actually arrives and know how strong the IMF will be and which direction it will take and sometimes it’s much stronger than anticipated and sometimes it will be a storm in a glass of water (no storm). These surprise storms are not uncommon, it’s just that some things can’t be predicted yet (IMF strength and direction) causing predictions that are underestimated or overrated

Hey, can I ask something, if a carriptong-class solar flare happens, how much time do we have to react?

[Jesterface23]

The fastest CMEs can travel to Earth in less than 20 hours, like the 2003 Halloween solar storms. Keep in mind as well that CMEs and solar flares are two different things.

[helios]

@Bedreamon Although a G3 storm is called "strong", they are actually pretty common, they occur in long term average about 200 times per solar cycle.

Even the strongest category G5 "Extreme" occurs 4 times per solar cycle, so we have plenty of experience with it.

(G4 "severe": 100 times per cycle)

Edited May 15, 2021 by helios

[Vancanneyt Sander]

13 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

The fastest CMEs can travel to Earth in less than 20 hours, like the 2003 Halloween solar storms. Keep in mind as well that CMEs and solar flares are two different things.

A solar proton event can start about 15 minutes after the solar flare, as primary solar protons are accelerated to nearly the speed of light,these particles are the earliest to arrive. This only happens during strong eruptive solar flares. Scale ranges from S1 to S5. 

[abc]

3 hours ago, helios said:

@Bedreamon Although a G3 storm is called "strong", they are actually pretty common, they occur in long term average about 200 times per solar cycle.

Even the strongest category G5 "Extreme" occurs 4 times per solar cycle, so we have plenty of experience with it.

(G4 "severe": 100 times per cycle)

These actual figures can vary signigicanyky , though. For example, in solar cycle 24, there are only about 10 times of g4 and none g5 . There is also only 27 g3(g4 inclusive). This is a weak cycle. However, even for an average cycle, like solar cycle, there is less than 50 g4. Therefore, I do.not believe in these stats. The part that I find the most strange is that it is  mentioned that there are 175 occurrences of r3(>x1 flare). Howevr there are 49 and less than 100 x flares in solar cycles 24 and.23 respectively. So I personally dont fully believe in these 

20 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

A solar proton event can start about 15 minutes after the solar flare, as primary solar protons are accelerated to nearly the speed of light,these particles are the earliest to arrive. This only happens during strong eruptive solar flares. Scale ranges from S1 to S5. 

Generally at least what strength of flare is required to activate a solar proton event?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

36 minuten geleden, abc zei:

Generally at least what strength of flare is required to activate a solar proton event?

There’s no definition on what level of X-rays is needed for a SPE event. I even remember a rise in solar protons after a very long duration C7 flare  although that didn’t reach event level (S1). 

[abc]

33 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

There’s no definition on what level of X-rays is needed for a SPE event. I even remember a rise in solar protons after a very long duration C7 flare  although that didn’t reach event level (S1). 

I mean generally, like typically what strength of flare

[Vancanneyt Sander]

like I said I can’t put a flare class on it, anything above C can have a SPE as long as it was eruptive and long duration.
In the archive I even found a SPE event in 22 may 2002 caused by a long duration C5 flare:

Quote

Subsequent to this was another long-duration event, a C5/Sf (maximum time at 0354) from the eruption of a long, north-south filament just east of 9948 (near S22W53). This flare showed classic parallel ribbons in H-alpha and was associated with a very fast, spectacular looking full-halo CME.

 

[Isatsuki San]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

como dije, no puedo ponerle una clase de bengala, cualquier cosa por encima de C puede tener un SPE siempre que sea eruptivo y de larga duración.
En el archivo incluso encontré un evento de SPE el 22 de mayo de 2002 causado por un destello C5 de larga duración:

 

I can ask something, besides that the solar energy proton event, affect the satellites, does it also affect something to the planet Earth like the energy generated?

Edited May 15, 2021 by Isatsuki San

[Vancanneyt Sander]

30 minuten geleden, Isatsuki San zei:

I can ask something, besides that the solar energy proton event, affect the satellites, does it also affect something to the planet Earth like the energy generated?

Mostly potential damage to satellites, no EVA's for astronauts at ISS, HF radio blackout, polar flights may have higher radiation risk

See Solar radiation storms at SWPC: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation