G3 alert or higher on that real?

[Isatsuki San]

I was seeing the alert of the noaa of the page and it said that there was an alert of g3 or higher and in that it would really be dangerous?

[stevenfraussen]

I just got a notification from SWL for a G3 storm. Looks like it might be true.
It's nothing dangerous. We've had G5 storms in the past and we're still here. Nothing to worry about.

Should it remain G3 I'm gonna see if I can head out tonight and will try to get something on camera. 

[Isatsuki San]

14 minutes ago, stevenfraussen said:

I just got a notification from SWL for a G3 storm. Looks like it might be true.
It's nothing dangerous. We've had G5 storms in the past and we're still here. Nothing to worry about.

Should it remain G3 I'm gonna see if I can head out tonight and will try to get something on camera. 

well, it really surprised me so much that a filament does this

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It was a very faint CME and many predictions agreed It wasn’t going to bring much. But as always in space weather there is that chance that it’s much stronger or much weaker than anticipated so with each CME you can only know what it’s going to be when it actually arrives and start from there. 

now that the bulk has passed, the IMF went dominantly south (-18nT) which caused a G3 storm. 

[Madison Gonzalez]

it's true. Kp index of 7. But, How FAR south is the aurora going?

Just now, Madison Gonzalez said:

it's true. Kp index of 7. But, How FAR south is the aurora going?

Anyway, can you see it in the Northern US?

[abc]

Is.it.possibke to gi further to g4?

[stevenfraussen]

35 minuten geleden, abc zei:

Is.it.possibke to gi further to g4?

Don't think so today. IMF is getting weaker and going north. Density a bit higher again now though, but not enough to make something more happen.

[Isatsuki San]

49 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Fue un CME muy débil y muchas predicciones coincidieron en que no iba a aportar mucho. Pero como siempre en el clima espacial, existe la posibilidad de que sea mucho más fuerte o mucho más débil de lo anticipado, por lo que con cada CME solo puede saber qué va a ser cuando realmente llegue y comience desde allí. 

ahora que ha pasado la mayor parte, el FMI se dirigió predominantemente hacia el sur (-18nT), lo que provocó una tormenta G3. 

can they turn into g5 dangerous?

[Kari A. Kuure]

The duration of a G3 storm is hard to predict, it can last a day but just as well it will end in a few hours. Personally, I hope it will continue until the morning of the night, because only in the darkest time of the night here in Tampere (Southern Finland) can we see the northern lights at this time of year. This opportunity will also end in early June.

[abc]

The storm has already weakened unfortunately not may rebound. I guess 

Edited May 12, 2021 by abc

[Vancanneyt Sander]

As with any storm, you can’t predict what’s coming in x hours. Data changes always and if IMF stays north there won’t be any show, if it gets south again we can continue with a show. But as with any CME, the longer after the arrival, the weaker it will become. So our best advice is to monitor the data and see what’s coming, if data gets better to initiate storming then the Aurora chasers can get ready. 

[Isatsuki San]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Como ocurre con cualquier tormenta, no se puede predecir lo que vendrá en x horas. Los datos cambian siempre y si el FMI se queda al norte no habrá ningún espectáculo, si vuelve al sur podemos continuar con un espectáculo. Pero al igual que con cualquier CME , cuanto más tiempo después de la llegada, más débil se volverá. Entonces, nuestro mejor consejo es monitorear los datos y ver lo que viene, si los datos mejoran para iniciar el asalto, los cazadores de Aurora pueden prepararse. 

Okay we will be monitoring although if I am honest I am new to solar activity and I do not know much solar, and I would like to learn sincerely I did not know that I could go through only the IMF is in the south, I will be well learning about this solar cycle 25

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Read through our help section, it contains a lot of informative articles about space weather and you’ll learn all the basics. After that, it’s following all the activity, from solar activity to the geomagnetic activity. It’s by following the activity you’ll really learn how to read all data and how to interpret them. 

[Nick0089]

At 1:59 PM EDT (1759 UTC) the Storm returned to a G3 status.  The SWPC's G3 warning has been extended until 7:59 PM EDT (2359 UTC).

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Despite the G3 alert, the conditions aren’t favourable for G3. As long as the IMF stays northward its nothing. Hemispheric power decreased as well as the IMF stayed northward. Hopefully we’ll get a more southward oriented period now that IMF direction is floating around north and south. 

[Nick0089]

Yeah, now SWPC is showing "None" for storm status as it's down to a kp4.  Guess it just wanted its presence known once more briefly before fizzling out.  😬

[Drax Spacex]

This severe storm had certainly had an impact on HF radio.  Band conditions are "Poor" from 80m-10m with noise levels S9+.  I just checked on my radio.  I can hear a few stations on 40m and 20m, but they are stations with high directivity antennas and transmitting at high power.  WWV at 10MHz is coming in fine, transmit power well above the noise floor.  One of the amateur stations I heard on 20m said he could hear no one on the band a few hours ago.  He thought it was "something to do with the sunspots,"  but it was when the G3 storm was peaking.

[helios]

No unusual band conditions here. Nice sporadic-E, but that is unrelated to the event:

Exceptionally strong signal from DP0GVN (Antarctica) on 12m, the strongest in 5 weeks.
630m-15m band conditions normal so far (can judge the lower bands better at night)
Slight improvement on VLF.
@Drax SpacexNoise is probably local, or by which effect is it to explain?

[Drax Spacex]

qrz.com homepage displays Solar-Terrestrial Data by N0NBH.   It shows Poor band conditions for HF for 80m-10m.  I don't always rely on those reports.  I get on the air and check myself from my location.  But today I can say my empirical observations match those predicted.  Band conditions are unusually poor right now.  Listening on voice SSB I hear one station on 40m and no station on 20m.  Normally I would hear about 10 stations on each of the those bands at this time of day.  I do hear some stations using narrowband ft8 digital and CW modes.   I just tried called CQ for several minutes on 14.238 megahertz and got no reply.

My noise level is lower than S9.  I'm using an omnidirectional antenna that has virtually no gain.  But the signal to noise level is low or negative in dB since I can't hear any voice SSB stations.   Poor skywave propagation (ionospheric bounce) is impairing the reflecting/refracting of signals back down to earth, likely due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions.  That ionosonde chart I believe is measuring near-vertical incidence (NVIS) reflection and MUF but is not directly assessing the current conditions for longer-range skywave propagation.

Typical ham experience is band conditions can change for better or for worse in a matter of minutes, sometimes without any apparent explanation.  And it can affect multiple stations across the country/globe at the same time ("...the band is starting to change...").  But I think the current geostorming provides a good explanation for the degraded conditions I and other U.S. stations have observed this afternoon.

Update: case in point - now only a few hours later, 40m has done a complete reversal and has now really opened up.  I'm now hearing voice SSB conversations on 19 frequencies in 40 m, including 4 stations with S9 + 20 dB signal strength.  I rarely receive that strong.  Propagation is good.  I believe this is a common phenomenon that in the relative calm after a geostorm, propagation can improve significantly, even better than before the storm.  Curiously, 20m is still closed, no voice stations heard.

Update 2:  24 hours after the geostorm, 40m and 20m are back to normal - stations heard on both bands, signal levels and proagation seems nominal.

 

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Drax Spacex
Update : 24 hrs later, band conditions back to nominal

[Bedreamon]

And yet scientists say that the Earth's magnetic field isn't weakening that much. What else could possibly explain this mild filament eruptuon causing a freaking G3 geomagnetic storm to occur for several hours if not that? Like, seriously, that HAS to be the big reason!

Sigh, it's things like this that make me extremely worried, scared, etc. for us as a society as Solar Cycle 25 marches onward. Edit: Actually, no. I meant to say that I'm deathly and gravely concerned about the rest of SC25.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Bedreamon

[abc]

Has the CME passed, is it possible that there is a return of geomagnetic activity today?

[Jesterface23]

The speed of the CME is somewhere between slow to moderate so it may still last awhile until the solar wind takes over. There isn't an exactly answer of when it has passed.

The IMF Bt is still fairly high so keep watch and see how low the Bz component becomes. The lower the better.

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

And yet scientists say that the Earth's magnetic field isn't weakening that much. What else could possibly explain this mild filament eruptuon causing a freaking G3 geomagnetic storm to occur for several hours if not that? Like, seriously, that HAS to be the big reason!

Sigh, it's things like this that make me extremely worried, scared, etc. for us as a society as Solar Cycle 25 marches onward. Edit: Actually, no. I meant to say that I'm deathly and gravely concerned about the rest of SC25.

Such storms are almost certain to occur with events like this(Earth-directed CME, flare on Earth-facing disk, etc.) in conjunction with a southward IMF. That bit above about poor signals? That didn't affect you at all, until you read it. The aurora that some folks got? In essence, that is what our atmosphere protecting us looks like.

Let's revisit the Earth's Magnetic Field - It's a dynamo. The best example of one we've got, really. Molten iron will still be molten iron for billions of years, and regardless of what you hear or read, the geomagnetic field isn't going to weaken enough that something bad will happen to you. Not from the Sun alone(unless you aren't wearing sunscreen when you should!), and not from an event more common than, say, a once-in-a-millenia event.

The simultaneity of cosmic ray bombardment from an exceptionally rare(on our timescale) event along with the moment of polarity reversal(some say it will take a long time, I hypothesize it will be shorter) and geomagnetic storming is the worst-case scenario for a high-energy flare+CME. What would it do to us? Well, if you stay inside, not really much at all. Maybe some high-energy gamma radiation, on account of the cosmic rays. If you're outside, definitely gonna get a little DNA mutation(damage, usually, and mutations are generally the means by which evolution progresses 🤷‍♂️ I reckon you'd get sunburned a bit faster as well. Would be unpleasant, the damage microscopic but recorded, and after the geomagnetic storming it would gradually regenerate the geomagnetic field.

So, that's the absolute worst-case scenario for a geomagnetic storm that I can think of, as it pertains to affecting your body. Power grids that fail get repaired. Awesome auroras. That's not that bad.

[Bedreamon]

I see. That's interesting to learn about honestly, though I tend to be a bit weary with it.

But it's not necessarily the radiation that concerns me, but rather our electrical systems since we depend on them for... well, everything. It's unknown how long it'd be down in such a scenario, with some estimates I saw being at least 6 months. I've also heard it takes, like, months for transformers to be transported from the eastern part of the world to the Western part. That ain't good, which is why I pondered how a filament eruption caused short-tern G3 storming and thought further about stronger filaments/CMEs. Like, something that weak causing geomagnetism that strong can't be normal, and it makes me think that stronger things will cause far stronger storms and far worse effects on electrical systems and by extension our society.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Bedreamon

[Vancanneyt Sander]

@Bedreamon why the sudden G3, easy to explain… as with every CME there are a lot of uncertainties. Even forecasts can be very inaccurate and that has its reasons. First, the distance between the sun and the Earth is a long drive. So if calculations of the speed of the CME are 10km/sec off, that’s a huge difference in time. CME’s also slow down when they travel through the solar system and the rate isn’t constant so there’s also room for error. So when forecasters put an impact time out, there’s a margin of plus and minus 6 hours on its arrival time. Meaning that CME might hot sooner or much later and that has a big impact on how strong a storm can get. If it arrives earlier it’s likely stronger than predicted, if it arrives late, it’s likely less strong. 
Next big part about CME’s is that you don’t know how strong the IMF will get and you don’t know which direction the IMF will take, this has a big impact on the storm level. CMEs are modelled and based on that there’s a Kp prediction that in many cases won’t be accurate because of the unknown factors. For example if Kp7 was predicted, but upon arrival of the CME the IMF is moderately strong but northward directed we wouldn’t have a Kp7. 
in this case the CME was earlier than predicted (a few hours) so it came a bit stronger. The IMF strength was way higher than anticipated with a strong southward period so that a G3 storm could initiate. And that has nothing to do with weakening geomagnetic field, the IMF was strong southward which cause such storms easily with those conditions.

To conclude: with every CME it’s a waiting game for its arrival as it predictions are never accurate. And you only know the real odds for a geomagnetic storm when it actually arrives and know how strong the IMF will be and which direction it will take and sometimes it’s much stronger than anticipated and sometimes it will be a storm in a glass of water (no storm). These surprise storms are not uncommon, it’s just that some things can’t be predicted yet (IMF strength and direction) causing predictions that are underestimated or overrated